Univision: Kelly+12, Cornyn+5 (user search)
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  Univision: Kelly+12, Cornyn+5 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Univision: Kelly+12, Cornyn+5  (Read 756 times)
Calthrina950
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« on: October 28, 2020, 12:18:31 PM »


Cornyn continues to be in a very weak position as we head into the final week, while this gives us yet another poll with McSally being DOA. I'm starting to seriously think that Hegar might be able to pull off an upset in Texas, particularly with how Biden is now polling there.
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Calthrina950
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Posts: 15,937
United States


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« Reply #1 on: October 28, 2020, 12:29:15 PM »


Cornyn continues to be in a very weak position as we head into the final week, while this gives us yet another poll with McSally being DOA. I'm starting to seriously think that Hegar might be able to pull off an upset in Texas, particularly with how Biden is now polling there.

I think there is going to be virtually no crossover vote between prez/Senate, would be nice if more pollsters gave data on the voters who already voted to actually gauge how much crossover vote there actually is. I think D4P is the only pollster that has provided that data but the Hegar margin and Biden margin among those who already voted was exactly the same.

I made this point elsewhere: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=407650.msg7697997#msg7697997. Ticket-splitting appears to be minimal this year, to a much greater extent then in any previous election in recent times. Even in 2016, when every state voted for the same party for both President and Senate, you still had several incumbents of both parties (i.e. Grassley, Rubio, Portman, Isakson, McCain, Hoeven, Thune for Republicans; Schumer, Wyden, Murray, Blumenthal, Leahy for Democrats) who ran well ahead of Trump and Clinton. But this year, it looks like partisan performances are going to be closely correlated, for both incumbents and non-incumbents alike.
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