Univision: Kelly+12, Cornyn+5
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  Univision: Kelly+12, Cornyn+5
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Author Topic: Univision: Kelly+12, Cornyn+5  (Read 755 times)
n1240
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« on: October 28, 2020, 12:16:41 PM »

https://st1.uvnimg.com/33/8f/ed1016da4a5fb16ec7e34cd5568a/univision-crosstabs-october-final.pdf

Arizona

Kelly 51
McSally 39

10/17-25, 725 RV

Texas

Cornyn 45
Hegar 40

10/17-25, 758 RV
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #1 on: October 28, 2020, 12:18:31 PM »


Cornyn continues to be in a very weak position as we head into the final week, while this gives us yet another poll with McSally being DOA. I'm starting to seriously think that Hegar might be able to pull off an upset in Texas, particularly with how Biden is now polling there.
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VAR
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« Reply #2 on: October 28, 2020, 12:20:17 PM »

But I was told that AZ-SEN was finally tightening!
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #3 on: October 28, 2020, 12:23:53 PM »

other candidates and MoEs added

https://st1.uvnimg.com/33/8f/ed1016da4a5fb16ec7e34cd5568a/univision-crosstabs-october-final.pdf

Arizona

Kelly 51
McSally 39
Someone else 2
Pretty sure I won't vote 2
Completely undecided 6

10/17-25, 725 RV, MoE: 3.64%

Texas

Cornyn 45
Hegar 40
Someone else 4
Pretty sure I won't vote 3
Completely undecided 8

10/17-25, 758 RV, MoE: 3.56%

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n1240
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« Reply #4 on: October 28, 2020, 12:24:27 PM »


Cornyn continues to be in a very weak position as we head into the final week, while this gives us yet another poll with McSally being DOA. I'm starting to seriously think that Hegar might be able to pull off an upset in Texas, particularly with how Biden is now polling there.

I think there is going to be virtually no crossover vote between prez/Senate, would be nice if more pollsters gave data on the voters who already voted to actually gauge how much crossover vote there actually is. I think D4P is the only pollster that has provided that data but the Hegar margin and Biden margin among those who already voted was exactly the same.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #5 on: October 28, 2020, 12:29:15 PM »


Cornyn continues to be in a very weak position as we head into the final week, while this gives us yet another poll with McSally being DOA. I'm starting to seriously think that Hegar might be able to pull off an upset in Texas, particularly with how Biden is now polling there.

I think there is going to be virtually no crossover vote between prez/Senate, would be nice if more pollsters gave data on the voters who already voted to actually gauge how much crossover vote there actually is. I think D4P is the only pollster that has provided that data but the Hegar margin and Biden margin among those who already voted was exactly the same.

I made this point elsewhere: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=407650.msg7697997#msg7697997. Ticket-splitting appears to be minimal this year, to a much greater extent then in any previous election in recent times. Even in 2016, when every state voted for the same party for both President and Senate, you still had several incumbents of both parties (i.e. Grassley, Rubio, Portman, Isakson, McCain, Hoeven, Thune for Republicans; Schumer, Wyden, Murray, Blumenthal, Leahy for Democrats) who ran well ahead of Trump and Clinton. But this year, it looks like partisan performances are going to be closely correlated, for both incumbents and non-incumbents alike.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #6 on: October 28, 2020, 12:37:19 PM »

I have a hard time seeing TX-Sen being 17 points to the right of AZ-Sen. My guess is Kelly does worse than this poll suggests and so does Cornyn
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #7 on: October 28, 2020, 12:37:24 PM »

Jesus that 15% undecided/other in TX. If that's the case, Bloomberg's late play could make the difference.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #8 on: October 28, 2020, 12:38:43 PM »

Cornyn will win
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Stuart98
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« Reply #9 on: October 28, 2020, 01:13:02 PM »
« Edited: October 28, 2020, 01:30:33 PM by Stuart98 »

Looking at the cross-tabs, respondents in the latter part of the month (after the final presidential debate) actually favored Hegar over Cornyn 44-42%. Given as how Hegar already likely has a lead in the early vote, this should be a very bearish sign for Cornyn.

EDIT: Undecideds are also disproportionately nonwhite, disproportionately female, disproportionately young... I think Hegar pulls this off.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #10 on: October 28, 2020, 01:14:57 PM »

I think Kelly will win by 7-8 points in the end. Cornyn by 6-8.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #11 on: October 28, 2020, 11:03:51 PM »

New Poll: Texas Senator by Latino Decisions on 2020-10-25

Summary: D: 40%, R: 45%, U: 11%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #12 on: October 28, 2020, 11:04:26 PM »

New Poll: Arizona Senator (Special) by Latino Decisions on 2020-10-25

Summary: D: 51%, R: 39%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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