GA-Mammoth: Ossoff and Warnock lead

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

October 23-27
504 registered/likely voters
MoE: 4.4%
Changes with September 17-21

Registered voters
Ossoff 49% (+7)
Perdue 46% (-2)
Hazel (L) 2% (-2)
Other 0% (but some voters) (n/c)
No one 0% (but some voters) (n/c)
Undecided 2% (-4)

Warnock 41% (+20)
Loeffler 21% (-2)
Collins 18% (-4)
Lieberman 4% (-7)
Other candidate 4% (+1)
Tarver 3% (-1)
Slowinski (L) 2% (-1)
No one 1% (+1 from at 0% but with some voters)
Undecided 6% (-7)

Loeffler v.s. Warnock - runoff
Warnock 49%
Loeffler 41%
No one/not vote 6%
Undecided 4%

Collins v.s. Warnock - runoff
Warnock 51%
Collins 39%
No one/not vote 7%
Undecided 4%

Likely voters - high turnout
Ossoff 49% (+6)
Perdue 47% (-1)

Warnock 41% (+18)
Loeffler 22%  (-1)
Collins 19% (-4)

Likely voters - low turnout
Ossoff 49% (+7)
Perdue 48% (-2)

Warnock 42% (+17)
Loeffler 22%  (-1)
Collins 20% (-4)

Presidentially: Biden 50-45/50-46/50-48, was Trump 47-46/48-46/50-45.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1321501399226683392

If I've been reading things correctly (if anyone knows for sure, let me know!), write-in votes for invalid candidates, spoilt ballots and Senate ballots left blank by presidential/downballot votes aren't going to count towards setting the 50% threshold. Only the Libertarian can deny Ossoff or Perdue an outright win.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Monmouth's release actually has likely voter model results for the runoffs, too:

Warnock 51%
Loeffler 45%

Warnock 52%
Collins 45%

For comparison:

Registered Voters
Warnock 49%
Loeffler 41%
No one/not vote 6%
Undecided 4%

Warnock 51%
Collins 39%
No one/not vote 7%
Undecided 4%