GA-Mammoth: Ossoff and Warnock lead

[Young Conservative]

Biden is not winning Georgia by 50.

[free my dawg]

In the interest of fairness, I think my accolades for calling that Osoff was a solid recruit pretty early on are probably canceled out by how much of a doomer I was Re: Warnock.  Hopefully we get two New Democratic Senators from Georgia; that’d be amazing

To be fair, Ossoff was always better than Tomlinson.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Monmouth's release actually has likely voter model results for the runoffs, too:

Warnock 51%
Loeffler 45%

Warnock 52%
Collins 45%

For comparison:

Registered Voters
Warnock 49%
Loeffler 41%
No one/not vote 6%
Undecided 4%

Warnock 51%
Collins 39%
No one/not vote 7%
Undecided 4%

[Hope For A New Era]

Warnock is going to win the run off and it will be lopsided.

Especially if Trump loses.

Why would he have better chances if Trump loses?
It seems counter-intuitive to me.

First time I've ever agreed with you. I'm wondering the same.

[brucejoel99]

Biden is not winning Georgia by 50.

You're right, yes. Biden will not win Georgia by a margin of ~75-25. It may be a hot take, but you're right nonetheless.

[Mr. Smith]

Something like Tennessee '94 would be a hilarious result.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Warnock is going to win the run off and it will be lopsided.

Especially if Trump loses.

Why would he have better chances if Trump loses?
It seems counter-intuitive to me.

First time I've ever agreed with you. I'm wondering the same.

What will Collins and Loeffler run on when Trump loses? Especially Loeffler who has made her entire identity about him. They will have to run away from him and piss off the Deplorables and there is no way they can gain credibility with college educated whites back that fast. Depressed turnout from deplorables + high propensity whites remaining skeptical equals a lopsided win for Warnock.

[MT Treasurer]

In the interest of fairness, I think my accolades for calling that Osoff was a solid recruit pretty early on are probably canceled out by how much of a doomer I was Re: Warnock.  Hopefully we get two New Democratic Senators from Georgia; that’d be amazing

In all fairness, assessing candidate quality is always inherently subjective, and this is not a year/state where candidate quality really seems to matter all that much. Any well-funded Democrat with support from the national party would have won the primary and made either race competitive due to the underlying fundamentals of the election (Democratic wave environment + state zooming to the left + relative lack of persuadable voters).

It’s possible that your initial skepticism about Warnock being a stellar candidate was accurate, it’s just that it doesn’t matter in this particular context.

[Yoda]

Warnock is going to win the run off and it will be lopsided.

Especially if Trump loses.

Pretty good point. I can see the republican vote in a runoff being severely depressed if trump loses.

[Calthrina950]

In the interest of fairness, I think my accolades for calling that Osoff was a solid recruit pretty early on are probably canceled out by how much of a doomer I was Re: Warnock.  Hopefully we get two New Democratic Senators from Georgia; that’d be amazing

I myself underestimated Warnock for a time, and I'll admit that I did the same for Ossoff as well. Both have run solid campaigns, and both can win outright on Election Night. It's hard for me to see one of them winning and Biden not doing so. As I've pointed out a number of times recently, ticket-splitting seems to be less of a factor this year, and of course, even more so in a state as polarized as Georgia.

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Georgia Senator by Monmouth University on 2020-10-27

Summary: D: 49%, R: 46%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Georgia Senator (Special) by Monmouth University on 2020-10-27

Summary: D: 51%, R: 45%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Georgia Senator (Special) by Monmouth University on 2020-10-26

Summary: D: 52%, R: 45%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details