GA-Mammoth: Ossoff and Warnock lead
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  GA-Mammoth: Ossoff and Warnock lead
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Author Topic: GA-Mammoth: Ossoff and Warnock lead  (Read 957 times)
Panda Express
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« on: October 28, 2020, 12:02:15 PM »
« edited: October 28, 2020, 12:05:27 PM by Panda Express »

Ossoff: 49%
Perdue: 46%


Warnock: 41%
Loeffler: 21%
Collins: 18%

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_ga_102820.pdf/
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Horus
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« Reply #1 on: October 28, 2020, 12:06:18 PM »

Georgia is a joke - Biden has a minuscule chance there, Osoff has almost no chance and Warnock forget it
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MNST CORNEILUS FUDGE
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« Reply #2 on: October 28, 2020, 12:06:45 PM »

Georgia is a joke - Biden has a minuscule chance there, Osoff has almost no chance and Warnock forget it


There you go Horus!
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Mr. Kanye West
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« Reply #3 on: October 28, 2020, 12:10:17 PM »

55/45 Senate is doable

We still haven't seen a real KS poll

The core 4 states plus IA, GA, and MT
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #4 on: October 28, 2020, 12:12:24 PM »

October 23-27
504 registered/likely voters
MoE: 4.4%
Changes with September 17-21

Registered voters
Ossoff 49% (+7)
Perdue 46% (-2)
Hazel (L) 2% (-2)
Other 0% (but some voters) (n/c)
No one 0% (but some voters) (n/c)
Undecided 2% (-4)

Warnock 41% (+20)
Loeffler 21% (-2)
Collins 18% (-4)
Lieberman 4% (-7)
Other candidate 4% (+1)
Tarver 3% (-1)
Slowinski (L) 2% (-1)
No one 1% (+1 from at 0% but with some voters)
Undecided 6% (-7)

Loeffler v.s. Warnock - runoff
Warnock 49%
Loeffler 41%
No one/not vote 6%
Undecided 4%

Collins v.s. Warnock - runoff
Warnock 51%
Collins 39%
No one/not vote 7%
Undecided 4%

Likely voters - high turnout
Ossoff 49% (+6)
Perdue 47% (-1)

Warnock 41% (+18)
Loeffler 22%  (-1)
Collins 19% (-4)

Likely voters - low turnout
Ossoff 49% (+7)
Perdue 48% (-2)

Warnock 42% (+17)
Loeffler 22%  (-1)
Collins 20% (-4)

Presidentially: Biden 50-45/50-46/50-48, was Trump 47-46/48-46/50-45.
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gracile
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« Reply #5 on: October 28, 2020, 12:15:26 PM »

I've long felt that people were sleeping on the possibility of Ossoff avoiding the runoff, and this poll confirms that there is a path.
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Sirius04
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« Reply #6 on: October 28, 2020, 12:15:50 PM »

Is Ossoff legit getting a late push?
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #7 on: October 28, 2020, 12:16:22 PM »

I've long felt that people were sleeping on the possibility of Ossoff avoiding the runoff, and this poll confirms that there is a path.

I can feel it, I really can! It just might be there yet!
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gracile
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« Reply #8 on: October 28, 2020, 12:17:09 PM »

I've long felt that people were sleeping on the possibility of Ossoff avoiding the runoff, and this poll confirms that there is a path.

I can feel it, I really can! It just might be there yet!

Someone should check to see if Amy Walter is okay, stat!
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#Joemala2020
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« Reply #9 on: October 28, 2020, 12:19:09 PM »

Warnock is going to win the run off and it will be lopsided.

Especially if Trump loses.
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Orser67
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« Reply #10 on: October 28, 2020, 12:19:47 PM »

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Pollster
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« Reply #11 on: October 28, 2020, 12:22:23 PM »

Ossoff should be a model for smart politicking - learn from your defeats rather than explaining them away, make the right & necessary changes, prove your doubters (myself included) wrong, and come back strong. He's run an incredibly smart campaign.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #12 on: October 28, 2020, 12:28:54 PM »

If Ossoff wins the first by 2 points, he will make it to 50, I'm convinced of it. I highly doubt Hazel gets more than 1.5% of the vote.
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VARep
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« Reply #13 on: October 28, 2020, 12:39:06 PM »

Calling it: GA-R is Demsí 49th seat.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #14 on: October 28, 2020, 12:40:15 PM »


It certainly feels like momentum is breaking for Dems across the board in GA. There was just another $10M ad buy for GA-SEN races too (for Dems)
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Harris/Shalala 2024
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« Reply #15 on: October 28, 2020, 12:42:01 PM »

Would still love it if Warnock made it through in round 1, I'm nervous about the turnout odds of a standalone Senate runoff, polls aside.
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One Term Floridian
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« Reply #16 on: October 28, 2020, 12:43:12 PM »

Lean D
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #17 on: October 28, 2020, 12:45:58 PM »



If I've been reading things correctly (if anyone knows for sure, let me know!), write-in votes for invalid candidates, spoilt ballots and Senate ballots left blank by presidential/downballot votes aren't going to count towards setting the 50% threshold. Only the Libertarian can deny Ossoff or Perdue an outright win.
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Xing
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« Reply #18 on: October 28, 2020, 12:48:09 PM »

You mean people calling this Likely R and saying that Perdue would massively overperform Biden were wrong? Say it ain't so! I guess the Democratic ceiling of 44% 45% 46% 48.8% isn't as impenetrable as many thought.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #19 on: October 28, 2020, 12:51:56 PM »

Not bad for two of the worst Democratic candidates ever. /s
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Ljube
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« Reply #20 on: October 28, 2020, 01:12:23 PM »

Warnock is going to win the run off and it will be lopsided.

Especially if Trump loses.

Why would he have better chances if Trump loses?
It seems counter-intuitive to me.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #21 on: October 28, 2020, 01:27:29 PM »

Georgia is a joke - Biden has a minuscule chance there, Osoff has almost no chance and Warnock forget it

If even Horus is on board, we're gonna definitely win lol
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Bibi Be Gone
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« Reply #22 on: October 28, 2020, 01:38:30 PM »
« Edited: October 28, 2020, 01:56:58 PM by Unbeatable Titan Joni Ernst »

In the interest of fairness, I think my accolades for calling that Osoff was a solid recruit pretty early on are probably canceled out by how much of a doomer I was Re: Warnock.  Hopefully we get two New Democratic Senators from Georgia; thatíd be amazing Smiley
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gerritcole
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« Reply #23 on: October 28, 2020, 02:41:01 PM »

Warnock would be close to winning w/o a runoff if Lieberman and Tarver were team players
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Pericles
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« Reply #24 on: October 28, 2020, 02:43:58 PM »

I think Ossoff ends up avoiding a runoff, actually. It looks like those assholes like Lieberman will force Warnock into a runoff though, but Loeffler and Collins are so weak that Warnock still has a great chance.
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