Who wins TX-21?
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March 28, 2024, 09:23:37 PM
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  Who wins TX-21?
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Pages: [1]
Poll
Question: ^
#1
Chip Roy (R, inc.)
 
#2
Wendy Davis (D)
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 54

Author Topic: Who wins TX-21?  (Read 745 times)
VAR
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« on: October 28, 2020, 07:31:13 AM »

Well?
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #1 on: October 28, 2020, 08:56:25 AM »

Biden by 5, Davis by 2.
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Wrenchmob
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« Reply #2 on: October 28, 2020, 08:57:38 AM »

At this point, probably Davis actually.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #3 on: October 28, 2020, 08:58:50 AM »

I've been saying this was Tilt D ever since Davis announced she was running and nothing has happened since then to make me revise that assessment.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #4 on: October 28, 2020, 08:59:23 AM »

Chip Roy, Davis is perceived as too left wing and nationalized.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #5 on: October 28, 2020, 09:00:20 AM »

Davis narrowly. This is probably the fourth most vulnerable Texas seat after 23, 24 and 22.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #6 on: October 28, 2020, 09:01:56 AM »

Davis narrowly. This is probably the fourth most vulnerable Texas seat after 23, 24 and 22.

I'd put it ahead of TX-22 tbh
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #7 on: October 28, 2020, 09:04:03 AM »

Chip Roy, Davis is perceived as too left wing and nationalized.

Have you ever been to Austin?
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lfromnj
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« Reply #8 on: October 28, 2020, 09:50:37 AM »
« Edited: October 28, 2020, 09:59:50 AM by #proudtikitorchmarcher »

Chip Roy, Davis is perceived as too left wing and nationalized.
Which is why she won a Romney +8 district in 2012 and did better than Obama in white urban areas in 2014. Her main struggle in 2014 was turning out minorities, the good news for her is the district is the electorate in this district is like 70 to 75% white
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Xing
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« Reply #9 on: October 28, 2020, 12:52:10 PM »

This has been a hard race for me to predict, but given how TX has been looking recently, I'll say Davis narrowly wins.
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Nutmeg
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« Reply #10 on: October 28, 2020, 02:31:38 PM »

Chip Roy, Davis is perceived as too left wing and nationalized.
Have you ever been to Austin?

If not for gerrymandering, this would be true, but this district is rather messy.
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Politics Fan
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« Reply #11 on: October 28, 2020, 02:35:25 PM »

Chip Roy, Davis is perceived as too left wing and nationalized.
I would agree 4 years ago but TX-21 along with the state has simply shifted too far left this year for Roy to be re-elected. I do this is the type of place reps can regain in 22.
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #12 on: October 28, 2020, 03:38:25 PM »

Davis and I've been saying this for a while. She's an insanely good candidate, turnout is insane, and this district has grown a lot even since 2018.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #13 on: October 28, 2020, 03:44:47 PM »

Chip Roy, Davis is perceived as too left wing and nationalized.

Have you ever been to Austin?

I'm from Texas...
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Indy Texas
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« Reply #14 on: October 28, 2020, 05:47:28 PM »

Toss-up. I think some ratings have been too bullish on Davis based on her fundraising without taking into account that politicians with "national" profiles like hers are going to raise a lot of out-of-state money that doesn't translate into votes.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #15 on: October 28, 2020, 05:52:48 PM »

Toss-up. I think some ratings have been too bullish on Davis based on her fundraising without taking into account that politicians with "national" profiles like hers are going to raise a lot of out-of-state money that doesn't translate into votes.

I’m basing my prediction more on the fact that Austin, San Marcos and Bexar turnout is already freaking bonkers and will far exceed 2018. People are lying to themselves if they think that’s anything but bad for the GOP. Admittedly, my prediction might be a bit conservative.
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S019
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« Reply #16 on: October 29, 2020, 03:19:09 PM »

Davis, and I honestly think she pulls it off even if Biden narrowly loses TX. Chip Roy is a very conservative incumbent, not a good fit for a district in which the majority of the population is increasingly located in Hays, Austin, and San Antonio, the rurals probably won't save him this time like they did in 2018, and Davis is also one of the best House fundraisers this cycle. Tilt/Lean D, at this point in time.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #17 on: October 29, 2020, 06:40:09 PM »

daddy chip
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VAR
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« Reply #18 on: November 08, 2020, 10:57:54 AM »

I see Wendy Davis embarrassed herself again
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