ABC/WaPo: Biden +7 in MI, +17 in WI

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Let me guess, they only did their polling in Detroit and Madison?

Biden would be winning Madison by much more than 17 points.

Biden will win Dane County by at least 50 points.

[Ferguson97]

Wisconsin two points to the left of the nation confirmed?

[Umengus]

I'm surprised that this poll is on the site RCP. I thought that it was pro-trump...

[KaiserDave]

An outlier to be sure, but a welcome one

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

I'm surprised that this poll is on the site RCP. I thought that it was pro-trump...

RCP skews right because it's too quick to include R outliers, not because it's too quick to exclude D ones.

[Asta]

I could believe this poll. WI covid surge is no joke right now.

[redjohn]

As I've been saying, WI is no longer very competitive at all. I don't think Biden wins by 17 (what a margin even in this poll!) but he's been on the trajectory for a victory here for a while. The recent COVID surge may end up in him netting several thousand more votes, but make no mistake; the main reason Trump will lose here is because he only carried the state in 2016 because a lack of enthusiasm for Clinton. Literally the only reason.

Biden will win WI because he's a steady leader who has spoken extensively about economic concerns. Trump has tried his hardest to make this a cultural war, but he's failed. You're going to see that fail miserably in Wisconsin.

[redjohn]

Also, a very important note: With the GOP on the verge of getting a super-majority in the State Legislature (and therefore being able to override Governor Evers's vetoes on their sadistic, authoritarian bills), Biden winning WI by a strong margin is going to be far more important on a down-ballot level. We have a potential to flip some seats in both the State Legislature and State Senate, and I think Biden's victory here is going to be very influential for these other important races.

[Alben Barkley]

No wonder Trump gave up on Wisconsin. His path is through Minnesota or Michigan again now.

No. If he's losing WI badly, he’s losing MN even worse. They’re also experiencing a COVID surge, too.

[forza nocta]

I know polls have outliers, but they cant be 15 points off, right? Lol. Especially the week before the election...

[redjohn]

No wonder Trump gave up on Wisconsin. His path is through Minnesota or Michigan again now.

No. If he's losing WI badly, he’s losing MN even worse. They’re also experiencing a COVID surge, too.

He absolutely must win either PA or MI and he's not winning either. It's not over until it's over obviously, but Trump is pretty much doomed. It's going to be a glorious Tuesday night.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

I know polls have outliers, but they cant be 15 points off, right? Lol. Especially the week before the election...

It's difficult to avoid the conclusion that Biden is on track for a comfortable win in Wisconsin unless one is either actively trying to avoid it or hopelessly addicted to uncertainty.

[Pollster]

The MOE implies the Wisconsin result could be 53/44, which is a bit more realistic.

Jesus, how big is the MoE here that it could swing all the way from +17 to +9?

4%.  Don't forget the MoE is +/- for each candidate's result, not for the margin between them.  So with MoE=4, a 57-40 result could swing to 53-44.  It could also swing to 61-36.

Plus, even the best pollsters will have occasional outliers, which this could be.

Yes, margins really don't matter in polls in any meaningful/non-symbolic way.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

I really do t don’t want to sound like a doomer, but 17% seems absurdly high.

Edit: Autocorrect has gotten worse over the last month

[CookieDamage]

I really do t don’t want to sound like a doomer, but 17% seems absurdly high.

Edit: Autocorrect has gotten worse over the last month

Questioning this poll isn't doomerist. I feel like to be a doomer you'd have to say "17% is an outlier, Biden is more like +1 to +3 in WI"

[Progressive Pessimist]

Obviously Wisconsin isn't voting for Biden that much, but the state has clearly defied all expectations for it like being the toughest of the big three for Biden to flip back, voting to Pennsylvania's right, and maybe even as far as voting to Michigan's right too.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Also, a very important note: With the GOP on the verge of getting a super-majority in the State Legislature (and therefore being able to override Governor Evers's vetoes on their sadistic, authoritarian bills), Biden winning WI by a strong margin is going to be far more important on a down-ballot level. We have a potential to flip some seats in both the State Legislature and State Senate, and I think Biden's victory here is going to be very influential for these other important races.

Rust Belt Republicans are uniquely horrific in their nasty gerrymanders.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I'm bumping this thread to make me feel better after the Trump + 7 Iowa poll. Why does that thread get 10 pages but this absolutely AMAZING Biden + 17 WI poll only get 3 pages??

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I'm bumping this thread to make me feel better after the Trump + 7 Iowa poll. Why does that thread get 10 pages but this absolutely AMAZING Biden + 17 WI poll only get 3 pages??

Because polls aren't outliers if Trump is leading in them

[Wisconsin+17]

I'm bumping this thread to make me feel better after the Trump + 7 Iowa poll. Why does that thread get 10 pages but this absolutely AMAZING Biden + 17 WI poll only get 3 pages??

Because it's wrong?

[Wisconsin+17]

I believe WAPO/ABC gets the award for the biggest whiff. 21 points the week of the election.

[ElectionsGuy]

ABC/Washington Post is a high-quality reputable pollster.

[It’s so Joever]

Oops

[Sir Mohamed]

Will this be the worst poll of the cycle?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I am mildly salty I sank so much time into curating polls that proved to be so wrong.