ABC/WaPo: Biden +7 in MI, +17 in WI

[tagimaucia]

Wisconsin number is insane and wrong obviously, but I do wonder if its gonna go blue by a few more points than it would have otherwise due to the Covid surge hitting right in October/November.  Starting to wonder if that's happening in Iowa too.

[Buzz]

I’ll wait for Marquette to drop their poll before losing hope.

[Panda Express]

but I do wonder if its gonna go blue by a few more points than it would have otherwise due to the Covid surge hitting right in October/November.

This is worth discussing. Biden's strongest leads in Arizona and Florida came a couple months ago when COVID was surging in those two states.

[BlueSwan]

I'll believe it when I see it but good on ABC/WaPo for not "adjusting" the data for a more believable topline.

Exactly what I came to write. No cooking the books here.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Gimme an N!
Gimme a U!
Gimme a T!

What's that spell?

AUTHORITARIAN NUT POLL

(But seriously, the WI number is definitely a huge outlier but still beautiful to see.)

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Added other options and changes (for Wisconsin) with the September 8-13 poll.

Oct. 20-25

MI (789 LV, MoE: 4%)
Biden 51%
Trump 44%
Jorgensen 3%
Hawkins 0% (but some voters)
Other 0% (but some voters)
None of these 0% (but some voters)
Would not vote 0% (no voters)
No opinion 1%

SEN: 52-46 Peters

Trump approval: 46/52 (-6)

WI (809 LV, MoE: 4%)
Biden 57% (+5)
Trump 40% (-6)
Jorgensen 2% (not previously included)
None of these 1% (n/c from "Neither" at 1%)
Other 0% (but some voters) (n/c)
Would not vote 0% (no voters) (n/c from at 0% but with some voters)
No opinion 1% (n/c)

Trump approval: 41/58 (-17)

https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1216a52020StateBattlegrounds-MIWI.pdf

[ProgressiveModerate]

I take back my previous statements about there not being outliers in both directions.

[Tender Branson]

WI +17 is extreme cringe.

Biden will not do better than Obama 08 there.

[roxas11]

The Michigan numbers are interesting because at this point in 2016

Hillary poll numbers in Wisconsin was crashing and trump was on the rise just days before the election
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_clinton-5533.html

Looking at this its almost hard to believe that so many did not see his upset win in MI coming

Thanfully Biden seems to be in a mutch stronger position in the state

[MillennialModerate]

Michigan numbers are fair

The Wisconsin numbers make me doubt the credibility of ABC/WaPo polls

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Trump Live:

[tagimaucia]

Michigan numbers are fair

The Wisconsin numbers make me doubt the credibility of ABC/WaPo polls

They're the gold standard of national polling IMO, but domain expertise is hard,  its possible they have no idea what they're doing with state polls.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

This is very likely accurate. No need to reweight for 2016 vote. Wisconsin was won because so many people didn't turn out, and this is a high turnout election. COVID will scare Republicans from polls in WI, and Dems already voted. Don't expect a uniform swing here.

[rosin]

No wonder Trump gave up on Wisconsin. His path is through Minnesota or Michigan again now.

The only viable path for Trump I can see is through Pennsylvania

[Pollster]

The MOE implies the Wisconsin result could be 53/44, which is a bit more realistic.

[wbrocks67]

The MOE implies the Wisconsin result could be 53/44, which is a bit more realistic.

Jesus, how big is the MoE here that it could swing all the way from +17 to +9?

[Dr. Arch]

There's only one way for a Democrat to pull this kind of margin in Wisconsin nowadays, and it rhymes with How Proverbs.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The MOE implies the Wisconsin result could be 53/44, which is a bit more realistic.

Jesus, how big is the MoE here that it could swing all the way from +17 to +9?

4%.  Don't forget the MoE is +/- for each candidate's result, not for the margin between them.  So with MoE=4, a 57-40 result could swing to 53-44.  It could also swing to 61-36.

Plus, even the best pollsters will have occasional outliers, which this could be.

[Torrain]

I know the WI numbers are wild, but consider this map of current cases:



Could this be the WI outbreak leading to an anti-Trump protest vote? Not saying it’ll lead to a statewide landslide on Election Day, but feels notable as an explanation for the poll.

[wbrocks67]

I know the WI numbers are wild, but consider this map of current cases:



Could this be the WI outbreak leading to an anti-Trump protest vote? Not saying it’ll lead to a statewide landslide on Election Day, but feels notable as an explanation for the poll.

I certainly think so. That's why, while I don't think Biden will win by 17, I do think the recent surge in cases there could certainly send a lot of people to Biden.

[KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸]

Let me guess, they only did their polling in Detroit and Madison?

[Hope For A New Era]

but I do wonder if its gonna go blue by a few more points than it would have otherwise due to the Covid surge hitting right in October/November.

This is worth discussing. Biden's strongest leads in Arizona and Florida came a couple months ago when COVID was surging in those two states.

Texas also. Seems like case surges are the one thing that can break the stability of this race.

[Yogurt24]

Lol. ABC is a great national pollster. But some of their state polling has just been crazy. Although at the moment Wisconsin is a Coronavirus hotspot. So it may not be all that surprising if it goes for Biden by a real healthy margin. The Michigan number is reasonable.

[LabourJersey]

Let me guess, they only did their polling in Detroit and Madison?

Biden would be winning Madison by much more than 17 points.

[GlobeSoc]

It would be hilarious if covid hotspots swung heavily d across demographic lines. Could result in some extreme swings in the upper Midwest and a few other places. Joni Ernst could well go down by a healthy margin in such a case