ABC/WaPo: Biden +7 in MI, +17 in WI

[VAR]

Oct. 20-25

MI (789 LV, MoE: 4%)
Biden 51%
Trump 44%

SEN: 52-46 Peters

Trump approval: 46/52 (-6)

WI (809 LV, MoE: 4%)
Biden 57%
Trump 40%

Trump approval: 41/58 (-17)

https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1216a52020StateBattlegrounds-MIWI.pdf

[Horus]

Omg

[philly09]

I thought Langer was horrible for state polling, but good for national polling. Take this with a grain of salt.

[Pericles]

Those WI numbers are absolutely crazy. Covid bump?

[Gustaf]

That gap is wow...

[Ljube]

A poll like this is evidence that we cannot trust polls in the Rust Belt.

[Crumpets]

Post reported for pornographic content.

[DaleCooper]

Obviously Biden won't win WI by 17 points, but this abnormal gap doesn't surprise me a bit. The COVID-deniers are in the minority even in the red communities; Trump's antics are even less appealing when your state is in a surge in cases. I'm expecting Trump to perform a lot worse than expected in NE-02 and 01 for the same reason. We're seeing a similar story in Iowa.

[philly09]

Did they weigh by education?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

A poll like this is evidence that we cannot trust polls in the Rust Belt.

Lol it's over just like Dixiecrat Rays were crushed in the World Series. Non of the Yankee states supported Rays, Dodgers have Mark Pryor who pitched for Cubbies

[wbrocks67]

I thought Langer was horrible for state polling, but good for national polling. Take this with a grain of salt.

Yep. Their state results have been very questionable so far.

I think it's realistic that Trump may now do the worst in WI especially bc of the rising cases of COVID, but yeah, obviously Biden +17 is insane. Also, Trump at a -6 approval in Michigan is nearly just as ridiculous.

[n1240]

Did they weigh by education?

MI sample is 29% college ed and WI sample is 31% college ed so probably

[Landslide Lyndon]

"Biden leads Trump narrowly in Michigan".

LOL, what a bunch of fools.

[Horus]

No wonder Trump gave up on Wisconsin. His path is through Minnesota or Michigan again now.

[Zache]

I'll believe it when I see it but good on ABC/WaPo for not "adjusting" the data for a more believable topline.

[Gass3268]

That Wisconsin number isn’t gonna happen. That said, it’s good to see an outlier go our way.

[Brittain33]

I’m reading the article now. The WI sample’s recalled vote for 2016 is Dem friendly, but if you reweight for 2016 results, it’s Biden+12. Which is still ridiculous, but not insane.

[wbrocks67]

I’m reading the article now. The WI sample’s recalled vote for 2016 is Dem friendly, but if you reweight for 2016 results, it’s Biden+12. Which is still ridiculous, but not insane.

is the Michigan one R-friendly? The topline isn't incredibly out of step, but Trump being at -6 approval in Michigan is one of the highest I've seen this entire cycle and doesn't really line up.

[wbrocks67]

"Biden leads Trump narrowly in Michigan".

LOL, what a bunch of fools.

I just saw that headline. You've gotta be kidding me. Biden is literally up by SEVEN

[philly09]

"Biden leads Trump narrowly in Michigan".

LOL, what a bunch of fools.

I just saw that headline. You've gotta be kidding me. Biden is literally up by SEVEN

They're claiming it's due to the MOE.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

If Biden is up 10/12 points in WI then one would expect, statistically speaking, to see him up around 17 in some individual polls.

[Gass3268]

That Wisconsin number isn’t gonna happen. That said, it’s good to see an outlier go our way.

Oh, I’m also happy that RCP will have to put this in their average.

[wbrocks67]

"Biden leads Trump narrowly in Michigan".

LOL, what a bunch of fools.

I just saw that headline. You've gotta be kidding me. Biden is literally up by SEVEN

They're claiming it's due to the MOE.

You know though if Trump was up by 7 the headline would not be "Trump narrowly beating Biden in Michigan"

[forza nocta]

ABC/Wapo state polls dont seem to be good, but Ill take these numbers anyways

[Rand]