Counterpoint: this forum is missing a big-time swing toward Trump among minorities

[S019ian Liberal]

Maybe it's just me, but it feels like this campaign was a LOT LESS about immigration than the last one?

In 2016 we had the "Mexicans are rapists", "judge is a Mexican" BUILD THE WALL, etc. This time around it was obviously there a bit but I feel like Trump spent a lot less time attacking Hispanics as a group. That in itself could explain some of the shift.

Why did Latinos shift way harder to Trump in 2016 than whites did between 2012 and 2016 then?

That does NOT explain the shift in this phenomenon.

[S019ian Liberal]

I guess we'll see who's right on election day, but I'd like to add that it's equally (if not more) off-putting when overwhelmingly white communities decide without concrete evidence that minorities are suddenly more supportive of and accepting of Trump's white supremacist platform.

This got 38 recommends. The original post which was accurate got 3 (before the election). Suggesting that minorities are becoming 'supportive' and 'accepting' of white supremacy is not only distasteful, it's a really good way to make sure those Trump-voting Hispanics never vote Democrat again!

Lol yeah, exactly this. Democrats trying to win over minority voters by shaming them about "voting against their own interests" and "backing up white supremacy" perfectly demonstrates how out of touch they are with our needs and priorities.

Case in point, former AOC chief of staff Saikat Chakrabarti's attacks against Congresswoman Sharice Davids (a DEMOCRAT, mind you -- I'll bet he saves 100 times more fodder for Republican representatives of color)

[S019ian Liberal]

Dems seem to suggest that the reason their candidate didnt get more support was due to the ignorance of the voter, or some sort of 'ism'. The idea that people can't have legitimate reasons to dislike your guy and like the other guy and to approach the issue with a bit of subtle arrogance is exactly why this trend can continue.

https://twitter.com/shadihamid/status/1324386750026993671

[S019ian Liberal]

It's not just the Latino vote, it's African-American voters, Native Americans, East Asians, Indian Americans, some Arab groups, and others too

I will have more to say about this shortly

Yes, Yes, No, Probably not, probably not.

Now what did I tell you, guys.

[S019ian Liberal]

I guess we'll see who's right on election day, but I'd like to add that it's equally (if not more) off-putting when overwhelmingly white communities decide without concrete evidence that minorities are suddenly more supportive of and accepting of Trump's white supremacist platform.

This got 38 recommends. The original post which was accurate got 3 (before the election). Suggesting that minorities are becoming 'supportive' and 'accepting' of white supremacy is not only distasteful, it's a really good way to make sure those Trump-voting Hispanics never vote Democrat again!

Lol yeah, exactly this. Democrats trying to win over minority voters by shaming them about "voting against their own interests" and "backing up white supremacy" perfectly demonstrates how out of touch they are with our needs and priorities.

Case in point, former AOC chief of staff Saikat Chakrabarti's attacks against Congresswoman Sharice Davids (a DEMOCRAT, mind you -- I'll bet he saves 100 times more fodder for Republican representatives of color)

Sidenote: it's not me who's deliberately lumping all non-white voters together here, it's the same entitled liberals (who've probably never ventured out of their bubbles into a majority-minority neighborhood or community in their lifetimes) treating each of us as a single monolithic bloc, whether one or all.

Accuse me of being unfair, but that "you ain't black" comment perfectly distilled some of our hidden resentment toward that attitude and approach taken by so many white progressives.

Frankly Biden should be grateful so many African Americans in this country would vote D no matter what, and the GOP is so clumsy at black voter outreach, otherwise based on their own personal values the much-mocked "Blexit/Blexodus" concept may have taken hold many decades ago!

This idea that white people can choose whatever party they like, but any POC who doesn't vote for the democrat are a "traitor to their race" is unfortunately all too common and prevalent, we need to call it out for the racist (disguised as well-intentioned) behavior it so clearly is.

What I'm saying is not to deny the very true issues Xing and others have pointed out -- they are very real, though painfully misunderstood outside our (generally insular) groups. The language barrier in particular is one that's both difficult and sensitive to cross, yet also necessary to broach if the rest of us wishes to understand why older immigrants and their descendants have had so much trouble (in most instances) integrating into mainstream society.

[RI]

Dems seem to suggest that the reason their candidate didnt get more support was due to the ignorance of the voter, or some sort of 'ism'. The idea that people can't have legitimate reasons to dislike your guy and like the other guy and to approach the issue with a bit of subtle arrogance is exactly why this trend can continue.

https://twitter.com/shadihamid/status/1324386750026993671

Wow, his gains with Hispanics actually meant Trump won Catholics, huh?

[S019ian Liberal]

Political correctness only plays well with well-educated upper-class elitist liberals who have nothing better to do than post as a SJW all day long. That demographic is almost exclusively white (though in fairness, rapidly diversifying)

[S019ian Liberal]

What I'm saying is not to deny the very true issues Xing and others have pointed out -- they are very real, though painfully misunderstood outside our (generally insular) groups. The language barrier in particular is one that's both difficult and sensitive to cross, yet also necessary to broach if the rest of us wishes to understand why older immigrants and their descendants have had so much trouble (in most instances) integrating into mainstream society.

I wanna point out the blame doesn't rest upon their shoulders, but rather must be firmly placed upon everyone else who historically have never been inclusive of Native, Black, Hispanic, Asian, etc. or honestly Americans of any stripe who appear different from the norm (even some "foreign" white Europeans, to an extent). And when they don't face such challenges, these people are still by and large reluctant to relinquish their traditions/customs (understandably so)

[Badger]

First of all, there was probably (I'll want to see the data to confirm this, but it's my suspicion) a pretty big gender gap among Latinos. I think a lot of the shift to Trump is from Latino men, and if there was a shift among Latina women to Trump, it was likely much, much smaller.

According to CNN exit polls:

Hispanic Men
2020: Biden 61, Trump 36
2016: Clinton 63, Trump 32

Hispanic Women
2020: Biden 70, Trump 28
2016: Clinton 69, Trump 25

So CNN has Hispanic women becoming 2 points more R and Hispanic men becoming 6 points more R. Honestly, I think they might be underestimating both swings, but it does appears Hispanic men swung more to Trump than Hispanic women.

If those numbers were even remotely accurate Nationwide, Zapata County wouldn't have flipped and Trump wouldn't have come within less than 10 points in Miami-Dade.

[The Free North]

First of all, there was probably (I'll want to see the data to confirm this, but it's my suspicion) a pretty big gender gap among Latinos. I think a lot of the shift to Trump is from Latino men, and if there was a shift among Latina women to Trump, it was likely much, much smaller.

According to CNN exit polls:

Hispanic Men
2020: Biden 61, Trump 36
2016: Clinton 63, Trump 32

Hispanic Women
2020: Biden 70, Trump 28
2016: Clinton 69, Trump 25

So CNN has Hispanic women becoming 2 points more R and Hispanic men becoming 6 points more R. Honestly, I think they might be underestimating both swings, but it does appears Hispanic men swung more to Trump than Hispanic women.

If those numbers were even remotely accurate Nationwide, Zapata County wouldn't have flipped and Trump wouldn't have come within less than 10 points in Miami-Dade.

Exit polls were awful this year like Silver pointed out on Twitter. I think the best way we can analyze stuff is on the precinct level, but that data isnt really out yet.

Its tough to guess, but i'd say Trump was probably +10 with hispanics nationwide. Puts him about 37%?

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

It's not just the Latino vote, it's African-American voters, Native Americans, East Asians, Indian Americans, some Arab groups, and others too

I will have more to say about this shortly

Yes, Yes, No, Probably not, probably not.

Now what did I tell you, guys.

FFS Arab =/= Muslim and Muslim =/= Middle Eastern. A clear majority of Muslim Americans are either Asian or Black.

We won’t know for sure until we see precinct level results and post-election polls. AAPI voters under 30 probably didn’t swing very much towards Trump if they really voted 83-13.

[S019ian Liberal]

FFS Arab =/= Muslim and Muslim =/= Middle Eastern.

When did I say they were?

AAPI voters under 30 probably didn’t swing very much towards Trump if they really voted 83-13.

Again, I never singled out this particular demographic group.

[pbrower2a]

Exit polls failed because Election Day voting was grossly unrepresentative of polling as a whole.  Imagine picking people with German surnames in certain parts of the US. You would get a very distorted count of the vote. Why? Many of the people with German surnames are Jewish, so you could figure how that goes.

There are no exit polls at the mail boxes. 

[ottermax]

Looking through the data, South Texas and Miami-Dade show that Trump got record turnout for Latino voters. This makes me wonder a few hypotheses:
1. Trump's rhetoric and populism appeals to many working class folks - why wouldn't it apply to working class Latinos in rural areas like South Texas? Maybe this is just a readjustment to a mean as Latinos - especially in South Texas are some of the poorest in the country and now are voting more like other poorer, rural counties.
2. South Florida looks like an area where Trump's 2016 rhetoric discouraged voters, but after 4 years where the rhetoric didn't necessarily play out in ways that directly affected those voters, Cuban-Americans decided to show up. Also throughout the 2020 cycle there have been concerted grassroots and official efforts to court Cuban-Americans and other Florida Latinos.
3. Both in South Texas and South Florida Latinos generally are less college-educated (I assume?) which is just a group being lost by Democrats across the board. Exit polls don't show this in the data, but having worked with Latinos most of my career I get the sense that the anti-PC, law-and-order type rhetoric appeals very well to non-college educated voters.
4. Finally as seen in Hawaii, South Texas in the past there is generally an incumbency swing by non-white voters each re-election campaign (see 2004). In some cases maybe voters just voted for Trump because their day to day lives have been fine, Trump is familiar and they showed up.

I do think it's very interesting that the places with the highest turnout so far this year (Hawaii and Texas) have high non-white turnout for Trump - not Biden as one would expect.

[lfromnj]

Its still crazy how Trump did better in Miami Dade than Marco Rubio after being the worst Republican performance in the county since Thomas Dewey in 1944

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

FFS Arab =/= Muslim and Muslim =/= Middle Eastern.

When did I say they were?

Sorry, it just sounded like you were citing this exit poll



as proof that Arab Americans swung R.

It's not just the Latino vote, it's African-American voters, Native Americans, East Asians, Indian Americans, some Arab groups, and others too

I will have more to say about this shortly

Yes, Yes, No, Probably not, probably not.

Now what did I tell you, guys.

[S019ian Liberal]

FFS Arab =/= Muslim and Muslim =/= Middle Eastern.

When did I say they were?

Sorry, it just sounded like you were citing this exit poll



as proof that Arab Americans swung R.

It's not just the Latino vote, it's African-American voters, Native Americans, East Asians, Indian Americans, some Arab groups, and others too

I will have more to say about this shortly

Yes, Yes, No, Probably not, probably not.

Now what did I tell you, guys.

no worries. i believe it was 2 other pollsters who brought up those numbers.

in either case i was attempting to debunk forumlurker's assumption that only a few rather than most or all of the aforementioned minority groups were trending R-ward this year.

assertion

[S019ian Liberal]

This is a “story” literally every election cycle since 2004, and yet it never materializes in the actual vote, and the overall non-white vote gets more and more Democratic relative to the country each election. Therefore, it’s hard to take this any more seriously than the “young voters are swinging conservative” meme, another persistent but always incorrect narrative.

I will grant that non-white voters may trend Republican this year as swings are concentrated in the white suburban voters and some snapback of senior voters/non-college whites. But that’s more of a story of white voters than non-white voters.

Lmao 😂

Still going strong about denying reality here I see, huh! Okay now once you're ready to have an actually reasoned discussion...we can start anytime.

Stop with this "personal experience" stuff that is NOT or hardly backed up by hard data. People have all too often invoked these talking points with no substantial basis. Just because you personally know AAs voting for Trump doesn't mean there is an overall shift among the community toward him. Even when you're part of this community. It's like me saying "all Arab Americans I know vote for Biden, therefore Trump is lucky to get 5% of them". I actually know a several Americans with Middle East roots and all of them are voting for Biden. Does that mean Trump has no support among this demographic? Of course not.

There is no data whatsoever suggesting a trend like this is going to happen. And the data means more than someone's personal experience or gut feeling. Trump won't do better among AAs than in 2016, and even if he were to get 1-2% more in vote share, these "gains" will be offset by increased turnout. Remember weak turnout among blacks was a key factor in HRC's loss. The only minority Trump has made some inroads, according to data, is Cuban Americans. But this is at best a wash for him in FL with Biden cutting into his support from older white voters. Biden generally is doing better than HRC among white voters, including WWC, which is why he is leading the Rust Belt and highly competitive or even ahead in FL.

Who's denying cold hard data and relying on pseudoscientific word-of-mouth methods or anecdotal evidence now? But yes, anything I don't like must still be untrue!

Yeah this is all noise to give Trump cover for running a white resentment/racist campaign.

Lol! I love white Democrat takes. "If you discuss how minority voters don't fall into line and vote lock-step with left-wing priorities you are enabling the most racist president in the history of your nation!"

Looking through the data, South Texas and Miami-Dade show that Trump got record turnout for Latino voters. This makes me wonder a few hypotheses:
1. Trump's rhetoric and populism appeals to many working class folks - why wouldn't it apply to working class Latinos in rural areas like South Texas? Maybe this is just a readjustment to a mean as Latinos - especially in South Texas are some of the poorest in the country and now are voting more like other poorer, rural counties.
2. South Florida looks like an area where Trump's 2016 rhetoric discouraged voters, but after 4 years where the rhetoric didn't necessarily play out in ways that directly affected those voters, Cuban-Americans decided to show up. Also throughout the 2020 cycle there have been concerted grassroots and official efforts to court Cuban-Americans and other Florida Latinos.
3. Both in South Texas and South Florida Latinos generally are less college-educated (I assume?) which is just a group being lost by Democrats across the board. Exit polls don't show this in the data, but having worked with Latinos most of my career I get the sense that the anti-PC, law-and-order type rhetoric appeals very well to non-college educated voters.
4. Finally as seen in Hawaii, South Texas in the past there is generally an incumbency swing by non-white voters each re-election campaign (see 2004). In some cases maybe voters just voted for Trump because their day to day lives have been fine, Trump is familiar and they showed up.

I do think it's very interesting that the places with the highest turnout so far this year (Hawaii and Texas) have high non-white turnout for Trump - not Biden as one would expect.

Seriously. We gotta stop with this holier-than-thou idea that somehow, because we're so "inclusive" and "open" as a society now, it's incumbent among immigrant groups to integrate more fully into society where they will "flourish and receive a welcome with open arms."

We all know they were more than justified in distrusting the white establishment in the past, but how come we never look into the mirror in the present to discern our own mistakes if we are putatively so insistent about having corrected for sins and misjudgments of the past?

Maybe, just maybe, they know something *that we don't* about what is best and healthiest for themselves? Perhaps in their daily lives, they still encounter cases and instances of coded racism, and find it easier to fit in to their own social groups rather than forming connections and alliances with their neighbors? Just a food for some thought while you're bored typing away at the computer tonight.

[wbrocks67]

The minority swing in 2020 is very situational, contextual, and geographical.

In FL, and TX, it was real. But in the Northeast, in Pennsylvania, Biden did just a well with minorities as Hillary did. And he did even better in GA.

[lfromnj]

The minority swing in 2020 is very situational, contextual, and geographical.

In FL, and TX, it was real. But in the Northeast, in Pennsylvania, Biden did just a well with minorities as Hillary did. And he did even better in GA.

https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2020/11/12/political-roundup-for-november-12-2020/#comments


False for PA. True in Georgia by raw turnout though.

[Badger]

Looking through the data, South Texas and Miami-Dade show that Trump got record turnout for Latino voters. This makes me wonder a few hypotheses:
1. Trump's rhetoric and populism appeals to many working class folks - why wouldn't it apply to working class Latinos in rural areas like South Texas? Maybe this is just a readjustment to a mean as Latinos - especially in South Texas are some of the poorest in the country and now are voting more like other poorer, rural counties.
2. South Florida looks like an area where Trump's 2016 rhetoric discouraged voters, but after 4 years where the rhetoric didn't necessarily play out in ways that directly affected those voters, Cuban-Americans decided to show up. Also throughout the 2020 cycle there have been concerted grassroots and official efforts to court Cuban-Americans and other Florida Latinos.
3. Both in South Texas and South Florida Latinos generally are less college-educated (I assume?) which is just a group being lost by Democrats across the board. Exit polls don't show this in the data, but having worked with Latinos most of my career I get the sense that the anti-PC, law-and-order type rhetoric appeals very well to non-college educated voters.
4. Finally as seen in Hawaii, South Texas in the past there is generally an incumbency swing by non-white voters each re-election campaign (see 2004). In some cases maybe voters just voted for Trump because their day to day lives have been fine, Trump is familiar and they showed up.

I do think it's very interesting that the places with the highest turnout so far this year (Hawaii and Texas) have high non-white turnout for Trump - not Biden as one would expect.

Excellent analysis, Max. I'm going to tie in one additional thing that another poster somewhere in these recent election threads pointed out.

Long-standing Theory, at least among Democrats, has been that the non-voting and irregular voting population of America is poor, less white, and that's more friendly to Democrats. That is at least true with irregular voters like Hispanics, African Americans, and younger voters who fail to show up for midterms. However, there is a smaller but well-respected pulling company whose Name Escapes me that has convincingly hypothesized that this is not at all the case 4 people who rarely if ever vote. The argument was essentially, if you think that right-wing virile Fundamentalist Christians are bad, you should see what the non-voting population really believes in. They're the lowest of low info voters who tend to actively buy into BS conspiracy theories of the worst sort. Think of every crazy BS fuzzy bear themed Facebook or other internet meme you've ever seen from your lowest low info relative, and put it on steroids.

Trump arguably spoke to these people and brought them out in a manner never-before-seen.

[ottermax]

Looking through the data, South Texas and Miami-Dade show that Trump got record turnout for Latino voters. This makes me wonder a few hypotheses:
1. Trump's rhetoric and populism appeals to many working class folks - why wouldn't it apply to working class Latinos in rural areas like South Texas? Maybe this is just a readjustment to a mean as Latinos - especially in South Texas are some of the poorest in the country and now are voting more like other poorer, rural counties.
2. South Florida looks like an area where Trump's 2016 rhetoric discouraged voters, but after 4 years where the rhetoric didn't necessarily play out in ways that directly affected those voters, Cuban-Americans decided to show up. Also throughout the 2020 cycle there have been concerted grassroots and official efforts to court Cuban-Americans and other Florida Latinos.
3. Both in South Texas and South Florida Latinos generally are less college-educated (I assume?) which is just a group being lost by Democrats across the board. Exit polls don't show this in the data, but having worked with Latinos most of my career I get the sense that the anti-PC, law-and-order type rhetoric appeals very well to non-college educated voters.
4. Finally as seen in Hawaii, South Texas in the past there is generally an incumbency swing by non-white voters each re-election campaign (see 2004). In some cases maybe voters just voted for Trump because their day to day lives have been fine, Trump is familiar and they showed up.

I do think it's very interesting that the places with the highest turnout so far this year (Hawaii and Texas) have high non-white turnout for Trump - not Biden as one would expect.

Excellent analysis, Max. I'm going to tie in one additional thing that another poster somewhere in these recent election threads pointed out.

Long-standing Theory, at least among Democrats, has been that the non-voting and irregular voting population of America is poor, less white, and that's more friendly to Democrats. That is at least true with irregular voters like Hispanics, African Americans, and younger voters who fail to show up for midterms. However, there is a smaller but well-respected pulling company whose Name Escapes me that has convincingly hypothesized that this is not at all the case 4 people who rarely if ever vote. The argument was essentially, if you think that right-wing virile Fundamentalist Christians are bad, you should see what the non-voting population really believes in. They're the lowest of low info voters who tend to actively buy into BS conspiracy theories of the worst sort. Think of every crazy BS fuzzy bear themed Facebook or other internet meme you've ever seen from your lowest low info relative, and put it on steroids.

Trump arguably spoke to these people and brought them out in a manner never-before-seen.

You nailed it on the head. I know these people in my day to day life and I fear what happens when they vote... but usually they don't!

[Asta]

People are analyzing this too much with a microscope as if Clinton and Biden strategies were erroneous in ignoring these voters. I would strongly argue that losing non-white voters to Republicans was bound to happen sooner or later.

White Democrats tend to make up disproportionate chunk of liberals.
Non-whites are the conservative faction of the Democratic Party, but still identify with Democrats due to viewing themselves as a part of disadvantaged group. Once they identify less as minorities, more will flee toward Republicans. That's what my parents did in 2016, and they became even more staunch supporters of Trump this year.

This is the reason why you rarely see Republicans defect to Democrats as opposed to vice versa. Democrats naturally have a huge tent of race, religion and ideologies so it's nearly impossible to hold on to all of them.

That's why I always urge Democrats to target the young, recent immigrants and non-voters. It's important for Democrats to work twice as hard just to keep up the pace with Republicans.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

People are analyzing this too much with a microscope as if Clinton and Biden strategies were erroneous in ignoring these voters. I would strongly argue that losing non-white voters to Republicans was bound to happen sooner or later.

White Democrats tend to make up disproportionate chunk of liberals.
Non-whites are the conservative fact of the Democratic Party, but still identify with Democrats due to viewing themselves as a part of disadvantaged group. Once they identify less as minorities, more will flee toward Republicans. That's what my parents did in 2016, and they became even more staunch supporters of Trump this year.

This is the reason why you rarely see Republicans defect to Democrats as opposed to vice versa. Democrats naturally have a huge tent of race, religion and ideologies so it's nearly impossible to hold on to all of them.

That's why I always urge Democrats to target the young, recent immigrants and non-voters. It's important for Democrats to work twice as hard just to keep up the pace with Republicans.

If this Election Eve poll is accurate, it doesn't seem like Trump made very significant gains with Asian voters nationwide, even though most groups seem to have swung R by a little bit.

https://aapifund.org/program/research-and-tools/

The AAPI Civic Engagement Fund partnered with twenty-one ally organizations to convene pollsters and conduct the 2020 American Election Eve Poll. This national multi-racial poll offers reliable information about 2020 vote choices and motivations of Native American, Black, Asian American, Latinx, and White voters. We partnered with the following pollsters: Asian American Decisions, African American Research Collaborative, and Latino Decisions to conduct this work.

The American Eve poll was a nationally representative sample of 1,675 Asian Americans and 41 Pacific Islanders. The Asian American sample featured 23% Chinese American, 20% Asian Indian, 15% Filipino American, 14% Vietnamese American, 12% Korean American and 12% Japanese American. The Georgia 7th congressional district poll included 302 Asian American voters, weighted to match the demographics of the district.

National poll- N = 1716 + 2.4% (Oct 23-Nov 2)

Chinese: 72-27-1 (Biden +45)
Filipino: 60-38-2 (Biden +22)
Indian: 70-28-2 (Biden +42)
Japanese: 70-29-1 (Biden +41)
Korean: 71-23-6 (Biden + 48)
Vietnamese: 61-36-3 (Biden +25)
OVERALL: 68-30-2 (Biden +38)

[Asta]

People are analyzing this too much with a microscope as if Clinton and Biden strategies were erroneous in ignoring these voters. I would strongly argue that losing non-white voters to Republicans was bound to happen sooner or later.

White Democrats tend to make up disproportionate chunk of liberals.
Non-whites are the conservative fact of the Democratic Party, but still identify with Democrats due to viewing themselves as a part of disadvantaged group. Once they identify less as minorities, more will flee toward Republicans. That's what my parents did in 2016, and they became even more staunch supporters of Trump this year.

This is the reason why you rarely see Republicans defect to Democrats as opposed to vice versa. Democrats naturally have a huge tent of race, religion and ideologies so it's nearly impossible to hold on to all of them.

That's why I always urge Democrats to target the young, recent immigrants and non-voters. It's important for Democrats to work twice as hard just to keep up the pace with Republicans.

If this Election Eve poll is accurate, it doesn't seem like Trump made very significant gains with Asian voters nationwide, even though most groups seem to have swung R by a little bit.

https://aapifund.org/program/research-and-tools/

The AAPI Civic Engagement Fund partnered with twenty-one ally organizations to convene pollsters and conduct the 2020 American Election Eve Poll. This national multi-racial poll offers reliable information about 2020 vote choices and motivations of Native American, Black, Asian American, Latinx, and White voters. We partnered with the following pollsters: Asian American Decisions, African American Research Collaborative, and Latino Decisions to conduct this work.

The American Eve poll was a nationally representative sample of 1,675 Asian Americans and 41 Pacific Islanders. The Asian American sample featured 23% Chinese American, 20% Asian Indian, 15% Filipino American, 14% Vietnamese American, 12% Korean American and 12% Japanese American. The Georgia 7th congressional district poll included 302 Asian American voters, weighted to match the demographics of the district.

National poll- N = 1716 + 2.4% (Oct 23-Nov 2)

Chinese: 72-27-1 (Biden +45)
Filipino: 60-38-2 (Biden +22)
Indian: 70-28-2 (Biden +42)
Japanese: 70-29-1 (Biden +41)
Korean: 71-23-6 (Biden + 48)
Vietnamese: 61-36-3 (Biden +25)
OVERALL: 68-30-2 (Biden +38)

Your link shows that 2016 margin was 75-19 (Clinton +56). That would be 18 point gain for Trump. I don't know how you can say that is not a big gain. Or am I misjudging something?

I would still have to take a look at the precinct data to be sure. Biden's 48 point margin with Koreans almost would imply that he may have done even better than Clinton did. That doesn't match my experience with Koreans, being one myself.