Counterpoint: this forum is missing a big-time swing toward Trump among minorities

[GP270watch]

If only Latinos voted you'd be looking at President Biden in all states except maybe Florida.

 Everyone knows that a certain amount of Latinos were always going to be absorbed into white racial identity, which is an ever changing thing. The same will also happen with Asians as Asian women and Latina women have high marriage rates with other groups.

No.
It’s religious and educational divides.
The old racial gap is dying out.
Asians won’t act the same as they are on average far less religious and more college educated.

 Another part of the story with Latinos is the evangelical movement. White megachurches are seeing noticeable growth with Latinos who are evangelical or converting to evangelical from other Christian faiths.

[Xing]

Black voters only swung marginally Republican, but the swing among rural Latinos and Cubans was huge, and Democrats have some work to do to ensure it isn't permanent. I can think of some reasons why Latinos swung to Trump, but I know people will misunderstand (perhaps intentionally) what I'm saying, so I'll refrain from doing so.

[Badger]

Black voters only swung marginally Republican, but the swing among rural Latinos and Cubans was huge, and Democrats have some work to do to ensure it isn't permanent. I can think of some reasons why Latinos swung to Trump, but I know people will misunderstand (perhaps intentionally) what I'm saying, so I'll refrain from doing so.

Could I convince you to share those reasons? You usually have pretty good insight and every bit of it on this subject is helpful.

Seriously man, forget the haters.

[It’s so Joever]

Black voters only swung marginally Republican, but the swing among rural Latinos and Cubans was huge, and Democrats have some work to do to ensure it isn't permanent. I can think of some reasons why Latinos swung to Trump, but I know people will misunderstand (perhaps intentionally) what I'm saying, so I'll refrain from doing so.

I am curious, could you DM me your reasons?
I may not agree but I do want to know.

[S019ian Liberal]

It's not just the Latino vote, it's African-American voters, Native Americans, East Asians, Indian Americans, some Arab groups, and others too

I will have more to say about this shortly

[It’s so Joever]

It's not just the Latino vote, it's African-American voters, Native Americans, East Asians, Indian Americans, some Arab groups, and others too

I will have more to say about this shortly

Yes, Yes, No, Probably not, probably not.

[S019ian Liberal]

It's not just the Latino vote, it's African-American voters, Native Americans, East Asians, Indian Americans, some Arab groups, and others too

I will have more to say about this shortly

Yes, Yes, No, Probably not, probably not.

depends what part of the country you're looking at

as the asian community diversifies the dems are likely to have a long-term problem with this group

especially if you consider the age factor

[Xing]

Alright, fine, you all have a point, I'll share what my wife and I talked about.

First of all, there was probably (I'll want to see the data to confirm this, but it's my suspicion) a pretty big gender gap among Latinos. I think a lot of the shift to Trump is from Latino men, and if there was a shift among Latina women to Trump, it was likely much, much smaller. Latino men tend to be fairly conservative on a lot of issues, and many likely saw Trump as a traditional "manly/macho" figure. Sexism is still quite an issue in Latino countries and communities, and that's not me being a smug elitist, since it brings me no joy to say this, and even less to see how some Latino men talk to my wife, including some in her own family. That's not to say all are sexist; that's very far from the truth, and I do know some who are very open to and embrace progress for feminists in Latin America. However, there is still a lot of sexism, and the word "latinx" doesn't come close to addressing it.

Feminicidios are a huge problem in Mexico, for example. Too often, women are kidnapped, raped, and murdered, and no justice is served. While the percentage of Latino men who actually participate in this is of course very small, many refuse to acknowledge that it is an issue, and laugh at women who bring up the issue and say "well, plenty of men are killed too, so what are you complaining about?" Many Latino families are very patriarchal, and there's an expectation that especially older men in families deserve more respect and younger women should have to be quiet and listen to them. To at least some of these Latino men, Trump represents a "strong male authority figure", who doesn't let women have too much control.

Also, unfortunately, there are definitely some Latinos who either immigrated here a while ago or were born here who resent more recent immigrants, and look down on other Latinos. Many want to be considered Americans, and unfortunately feel the need to dissociate themselves with the Latino community or put down other Latinos to make themselves feel more American. It's the whole "I got mine, f*** you" mentality, or "now that I made it across the border, time to close it up." My wife has shared many first and second-hand experiences of Latinos trying to push other Latinos down to get ahead. While I imagined that they would hear Trump's rhetoric and consider it an attack on them, many take it to mean he's talking about other Latinos, those they dislike, and agree with him. I could see some of this at play in the shift among Cubans, since from my experience, Cubans and Mexicans don't always tend to get along.

There are also some who reacted very negatively to the BLM protests, and the "defund the police" trend was not popular at all. Even many people who I'm positive voted for Biden were strongly against it. Some Latino immigrants are sadly no strangers to civil unrest, and seeing the violence, even if it was only caused by a small minority of people who were probably not friendly to the cause, may have had some part in turning some against the Democrats.

Now, I didn't predict this would happen. I thought that the number of Latino voters who would actually vote for Trump because of these reasons would be small, but I was wrong. These kinds of attitudes exist among white voters as well, obviously, but a fact that Democrats will have to reckon with is that Latinos, particularly Latino men, can be quite conservative. While this might be slowly changing, and younger Latinos are generally less conservative, Democrats have to work on their messaging if they don't want this shift to be permanent, as I've said in other threads.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Whoever end up not voting for D are

racist ("look down on other Latinos")
sexist
loves Daddy Trump because muh "manly/macho"
"misunderstands" BLM/protest


with other words they are just worse people who don't understand or share the beauty and wisdom of the ideas of Democratic Party.

Even shorter would be: Latin America are not sending their best, they are this and they are that.

[RI]

First of all, there was probably (I'll want to see the data to confirm this, but it's my suspicion) a pretty big gender gap among Latinos. I think a lot of the shift to Trump is from Latino men, and if there was a shift among Latina women to Trump, it was likely much, much smaller.

According to CNN exit polls:

Hispanic Men
2020: Biden 61, Trump 36
2016: Clinton 63, Trump 32

Hispanic Women
2020: Biden 70, Trump 28
2016: Clinton 69, Trump 25

So CNN has Hispanic women becoming 2 points more R and Hispanic men becoming 6 points more R. Honestly, I think they might be underestimating both swings, but it does appears Hispanic men swung more to Trump than Hispanic women.

[RI]

Side note: CNN says 15% of all Hispanics think abortion should be illegal but still voted for Biden. Add just those voters to the Republican coalition, and Hispanics become majority R. Huge potential there for further GOP gains down the line.

[darklordoftech]

Alright, fine, you all have a point, I'll share what my wife and I talked about.

First of all, there was probably (I'll want to see the data to confirm this, but it's my suspicion) a pretty big gender gap among Latinos. I think a lot of the shift to Trump is from Latino men, and if there was a shift among Latina women to Trump, it was likely much, much smaller. Latino men tend to be fairly conservative on a lot of issues, and many likely saw Trump as a traditional "manly/macho" figure. Sexism is still quite an issue in Latino countries and communities, and that's not me being a smug elitist, since it brings me no joy to say this, and even less to see how some Latino men talk to my wife, including some in her own family. That's not to say all are sexist; that's very far from the truth, and I do know some who are very open to and embrace progress for feminists in Latin America. However, there is still a lot of sexism, and the word "latinx" doesn't come close to addressing it.

Feminicidios are a huge problem in Mexico, for example. Too often, women are kidnapped, raped, and murdered, and no justice is served. While the percentage of Latino men who actually participate in this is of course very small, many refuse to acknowledge that it is an issue, and laugh at women who bring up the issue and say "well, plenty of men are killed too, so what are you complaining about?" Many Latino families are very patriarchal, and there's an expectation that especially older men in families deserve more respect and younger women should have to be quiet and listen to them. To at least some of these Latino men, Trump represents a "strong male authority figure", who doesn't let women have too much control.

Also, unfortunately, there are definitely some Latinos who either immigrated here a while ago or were born here who resent more recent immigrants, and look down on other Latinos. Many want to be considered Americans, and unfortunately feel the need to dissociate themselves with the Latino community or put down other Latinos to make themselves feel more American. It's the whole "I got mine, f*** you" mentality, or "now that I made it across the border, time to close it up." My wife has shared many first and second-hand experiences of Latinos trying to push other Latinos down to get ahead. While I imagined that they would hear Trump's rhetoric and consider it an attack on them, many take it to mean he's talking about other Latinos, those they dislike, and agree with him. I could see some of this at play in the shift among Cubans, since from my experience, Cubans and Mexicans don't always tend to get along.

Then why did Hillary, an actual woman who’s main distinction from Trump was immigration, do better with them?

[Red Velvet]

Lmao this thread. Some people have very stereotypical views.

Latinos mostly didn’t vote for democrats because democrats did nothing to appeal to them, simple as that. They can be more economically left and socially conservative if you really want to generalize a big diverse group of people (like saying: “Whites are racist”). Meanwhile democrats main message was to appeal to economically moderates/conservatives who are socially progressive.

Even in Florida where you have Cubans being fiscally conservative, you gotta have in mind that the group there is still very diverse (even if absolutely to the right of Latinos living in the west).

And it’s exactly the mentality that minority voters will always vote for them that made democrats take these voters for granted. They assumed they forever had their vote because “Trump is racist, so are republicans” and therefore, they acted like they were entitled to their vote as if they were the representation of anti-racism while using language that tries to suppress and stigmatize Latino culture and language, acting like it’s inferior and “more sexist” (I mean, “Latinx”??? Are you kidding me??? Who even uses this?). That’s a mistake that even people in this thread are doing, that lazy white excuse that minorities are supposed to be more ignorant and therefore, are more sexist or violent.

The best way to understand Latino voters is that they aren’t as susceptible to identity politics like American whites and blacks are due to historical established dynamics in the country, so if you’re going into a road of political correctness, into the politics of “moralizing” you’re bound to fail. These people won’t have any problem voting for Trump because many just see him as “politically incorrect” and not necessarily a racist like democrats claiming to be their “saviors” say.

You have to be way more practical, regardless if it’s more to left or right. Offer solutions to specific issues. Latinos want someone to look at them and promise to give them what they want, to solve their problems. They can also lean towards the more “exciting” option regardless of ideology and one thing that Hillary did have over Biden, was a sense of novelty and excitement to her base. She also had previous built trust with Latinos, something that Biden did never have.

However, it’s important to notice that Trump didn’t build ground with just Latinos, so a lot here also relates in a lesser scale to other minority groups. I do believe republicans are racist but I don’t necessarily see the democrats representing minorities just because they’re “the other side”. If anything, democrats continuously like to ignore minorities (especially if they’re poor) and treat them as if they only serve to get them votes. Now the good thing is that if they really want the Latino vote back they will have to actually work for it and see these groups as protagonists, not mere observers.

[S019ian Liberal]

-snip-

Very good points worth considering by both you, Red Velvet and others here in this thread.

If you don't mind answering, are either/both of you and your wife Latino? And if so, or if not, which group of origin specifically? Just asking out of curiosity. Thanks!

[Intell]

Alright, fine, you all have a point, I'll share what my wife and I talked about.

First of all, there was probably (I'll want to see the data to confirm this, but it's my suspicion) a pretty big gender gap among Latinos. I think a lot of the shift to Trump is from Latino men, and if there was a shift among Latina women to Trump, it was likely much, much smaller. Latino men tend to be fairly conservative on a lot of issues, and many likely saw Trump as a traditional "manly/macho" figure. Sexism is still quite an issue in Latino countries and communities, and that's not me being a smug elitist, since it brings me no joy to say this, and even less to see how some Latino men talk to my wife, including some in her own family. That's not to say all are sexist; that's very far from the truth, and I do know some who are very open to and embrace progress for feminists in Latin America. However, there is still a lot of sexism, and the word "latinx" doesn't come close to addressing it.

Feminicidios are a huge problem in Mexico, for example. Too often, women are kidnapped, raped, and murdered, and no justice is served. While the percentage of Latino men who actually participate in this is of course very small, many refuse to acknowledge that it is an issue, and laugh at women who bring up the issue and say "well, plenty of men are killed too, so what are you complaining about?" Many Latino families are very patriarchal, and there's an expectation that especially older men in families deserve more respect and younger women should have to be quiet and listen to them. To at least some of these Latino men, Trump represents a "strong male authority figure", who doesn't let women have too much control.

Also, unfortunately, there are definitely some Latinos who either immigrated here a while ago or were born here who resent more recent immigrants, and look down on other Latinos. Many want to be considered Americans, and unfortunately feel the need to dissociate themselves with the Latino community or put down other Latinos to make themselves feel more American. It's the whole "I got mine, f*** you" mentality, or "now that I made it across the border, time to close it up." My wife has shared many first and second-hand experiences of Latinos trying to push other Latinos down to get ahead. While I imagined that they would hear Trump's rhetoric and consider it an attack on them, many take it to mean he's talking about other Latinos, those they dislike, and agree with him. I could see some of this at play in the shift among Cubans, since from my experience, Cubans and Mexicans don't always tend to get along.

There are also some who reacted very negatively to the BLM protests, and the "defund the police" trend was not popular at all.Even many people who I'm positive voted for Biden were strongly against it. Some Latino immigrants are sadly no strangers to civil unrest, and seeing the violence, even if it was only caused by a small minority of people who were probably not friendly to the cause, may have had some part in turning some against the Democrats.

Now, I didn't predict this would happen. I thought that the number of Latino voters who would actually vote for Trump because of these reasons would be small, but I was wrong. These kinds of attitudes exist among white voters as well, obviously, but a fact that Democrats will have to reckon with is that Latinos, particularly Latino men, can be quite conservative. While this might be slowly changing, and younger Latinos are generally less conservative, Democrats have to work on their messaging if they don't want this shift to be permanent, as I've said in other threads.

This I feel like is a very important point, I know a lot of people  in my south asian immigrant community who ended up voting for Biden, because of COVID-19 and Trump is crazy, who strongly oppose BLM, the idea there is systematic racism and feel that black people are 'culturally lazy/criminal.

Illegal Immigration is also very unpopular, while it's not that deportations or cages are popular, they are not, the lack of otherisation of illegal immigrants to legal immigrants, draws a very negative reaction. People think the democrats are racist because they tie, good hard-working immigrants (them) to lazy, criminal people who cross the border (trump).

The idea of that there is patriarchy and sexism, or such relationship structures of male centerd-ness are bad also upsets a lot of men, and makes older women confused.

I think that the republicans have an untapped base that they can improve amongst, if they act smarter and stop playing so much into white identity politics, and anti-education/science rhetoric but instead as crude as says, say we republicans are a diverse party that acknowledges you (asians) are a good minority group that that has integrated with white society but them (black and illegals) are not doing that and are not contributing as much into Americaa. 

[S019ian Liberal]

First of all, there was probably (I'll want to see the data to confirm this, but it's my suspicion) a pretty big gender gap among Latinos. I think a lot of the shift to Trump is from Latino men, and if there was a shift among Latina women to Trump, it was likely much, much smaller.

According to CNN exit polls:

Hispanic Men
2020: Biden 61, Trump 36
2016: Clinton 63, Trump 32

Hispanic Women
2020: Biden 70, Trump 28
2016: Clinton 69, Trump 25

So CNN has Hispanic women becoming 2 points more R and Hispanic men becoming 6 points more R. Honestly, I think they might be underestimating both swings, but it does appears Hispanic men swung more to Trump than Hispanic women.

I don't think that fully explains it. According to the same exit poll, the gender gap among Latinos grew by less than the white gender gap did, after all.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

I think that the republicans have an untapped base that they can improve amongst, if they act smarter and stop playing so much into white identity politics, and anti-education/science rhetoric but instead as crude as says, say we republicans are a diverse party that acknowledges you (asians) are a good minority group that that has integrated with white society but them (black and illegals) are not doing that and are not contributing as much into Americaa.  

Which ignores the non-ADOS Blacks who have similar experiences integrating with mainstream society as Asian immigrants. But since when did facts and nuance matter to right-wing populists?

[Gustaf]

Maybe it's just me, but it feels like this campaign was a LOT LESS about immigration than the last one?

In 2016 we had the "Mexicans are rapists", "judge is a Mexican" BUILD THE WALL, etc. This time around it was obviously there a bit but I feel like Trump spent a lot less time attacking Hispanics as a group. That in itself could explain some of the shift.

[ElectionsGuy]

I guess we'll see who's right on election day, but I'd like to add that it's equally (if not more) off-putting when overwhelmingly white communities decide without concrete evidence that minorities are suddenly more supportive of and accepting of Trump's white supremacist platform.

This got 38 recommends. The original post which was accurate got 3 (before the election). Suggesting that minorities are becoming 'supportive' and 'accepting' of white supremacy is not only distasteful, it's a really good way to make sure those Trump-voting Hispanics never vote Democrat again!

[ElectionsGuy]

Maybe it's just me, but it feels like this campaign was a LOT LESS about immigration than the last one?

In 2016 we had the "Mexicans are rapists", "judge is a Mexican" BUILD THE WALL, etc. This time around it was obviously there a bit but I feel like Trump spent a lot less time attacking Hispanics as a group. That in itself could explain some of the shift.

Yeah, there was very little immigration focus. It was an economy/covid election, Trump didn't have the same outlandish statements he did in 2016.

[RI]

Maybe it's just me, but it feels like this campaign was a LOT LESS about immigration than the last one?

In 2016 we had the "Mexicans are rapists", "judge is a Mexican" BUILD THE WALL, etc. This time around it was obviously there a bit but I feel like Trump spent a lot less time attacking Hispanics as a group. That in itself could explain some of the shift.

Yeah, there was very little immigration focus. It was an economy/covid election, Trump didn't have the same outlandish statements he did in 2016.

Also much less about trade, which may have cost Trump the Rust Belt.

[lfromnj]

Maybe it's just me, but it feels like this campaign was a LOT LESS about immigration than the last one?

In 2016 we had the "Mexicans are rapists", "judge is a Mexican" BUILD THE WALL, etc. This time around it was obviously there a bit but I feel like Trump spent a lot less time attacking Hispanics as a group. That in itself could explain some of the shift.

Yeah, there was very little immigration focus. It was an economy/covid election, Trump didn't have the same outlandish statements he did in 2016.

Also much less about trade, which may have cost Trump the Rust Belt.

If you take all the rural counties or even mid sized ones like youngstown they might have actually swung towards Trump. Its just it was a 1 point swing at best while the college educated suburban ones swung 8+ points left.

[Xing]

-snip-

Very good points worth considering by both you, Red Velvet and others here in this thread.

If you don't mind answering, are either/both of you and your wife Latino? And if so, or if not, which group of origin specifically? Just asking out of curiosity. Thanks!

My wife is Latina (Mexican), and I'm not, but we know many Latinos (of course.) I'll certainly say I agree with Red Velvet about "latinx." It does come across as very condescending, every Latino I know hates it, and it makes no sense at all given the Spanish language (latine would at least make a little more sense, but linguistic imperialism isn't cool.) I won't back down in saying that sexism is a very real problem in Latin America, and I don't think it should be problematic to say that, but the Spanish language is not the problem, and accusing Latinos who use the word... well, "Latino" of being sexist, even if they don't act in a sexist way at all is terrible.

[The Free North]

Whoever end up not voting for D are

racist ("look down on other Latinos")
sexist
loves Daddy Trump because muh "manly/macho"
"misunderstands" BLM/protest


with other words they are just worse people who don't understand or share the beauty and wisdom of the ideas of Democratic Party.

Even shorter would be: Latin America are not sending their best, they are this and they are that.

Yes indeed. Dem posters seem to suggest that the reason their candidate didnt get more support was due to the ignorance of the voter, or some sort of 'ism'. The idea that people can't have legitimate reasons to dislike your guy and like the other guy and to approach the issue with a bit of subtle arrogance is exactly why this trend can continue.

[lfromnj]

Rockland county NY isn't looking great for D's either rn although its still early. Trump up by 10 with 77% in. Should close in but Trump already got more votes than 2016 while Biden is 20k behind Clinton's numbers.