Counterpoint: this forum is missing a big-time swing toward Trump among minorities

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Can confirm that most of my parents' Chinese American friends are turning towards Trump (A lot of them voted Democrat in the past). Most white people probably will not believe this, due to Trump's comments about the Chinese Virus and so on being portrayed as racist, but they are heavily pro law & order and pro police. It's mostly minority businesses being burned down.

This shouldn’t be news to anyone who interacts with nonwhite immigrants of a certain age group on a regular basis. Although I imagine Chinese immigrants specifically swung more towards Trump in 2016 than they will this year.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

Let's face it, Atlas: we're an overwhelmingly white club. And among those of us who are people of color, we tend to be disproportionately upscale, (sub)urban, and most importantly of all, young. (not meaning to engage in erasure of anybody here who doesn't fit the above description, of course)

That's a problem because I've said for a long time we are underestimating the broad shift of swaths of white Americans away from Trump, but also the pull by various other demographic groups toward him.

Especially considering the double whammy of difficulty faced by pollsters (an overwhelmingly white industry) in reaching voters of color and breaking through key racial, cultural, as well as language barriers, might we be failing to capture (in our attentiveness toward suburban swings, etc) a landscape of minority voters breaking decisively for the GOP which might doom Democrats in key battleground states this year?

I’ve been hammering Atlas about this for months now. Atlas is disproportionately male, white and college-educated, and the people that they interact with who do not fit those demographics aren’t necessarily representative of the rest of the voter population. I really hope New American Voices has accomplished what they set out to do.

https://www.newamericanvoices.org/

[Badger]

Counter Counterpoint, outside of Cubans and MAYBE other non Cuban Hispanics, there is little little evidence to make the Forum believe this hypothesis.

[Devout Centrist]

Thank you for posting this thread. Just the other day my friend, Fulgencio Batista IV, told me he was voting for Trump. His skin color is tan and his last name is foreign.

Need I say more?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Users like to post any topic they believe is true and it's not true. Everyone like to talk conspiracy theories, Russian Marxists and adversaries to CR movement is exacerbated by Kushner and Trump whom who said AA and Latinos are lazy. Nixon, Hoover, KGB, Reagan Iran Contra and Iran is a Russian military state and Trump have been the most pro Russian Prez ever.

Russia was called the USSR before Boris Yeltsin Democratized it, we are so used to Russia working with us.

That's why we as kids had Nuclear War drills in elementary school in case Russia launched an attack

[Alben Barkley]

Trump is getting smoked in Wisconsin and GEORGIA.

It's over.

Get over it.

[S019ian Liberal]

This is a “story” literally every election cycle since 2004, and yet it never materializes in the actual vote, and the overall non-white vote gets more and more Democratic relative to the country each election.

That's simply incorrect lol, it's been going on for a long time now

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Trump is getting smoked in Wisconsin and GEORGIA.

It's over.

Get over it.

[RaphaelDLG]

Big-time swing? No. If we're talking about personal experiences, my wife is Latina and has several connections to the community. While Latinos are not universally against Trump, I've seen no evidence of hoards of Clinton/Trump voters within the community, and the majority despise Trump and see him as a racist.

Oh sh**t buddy you got married?  Congrats!

[S019ian Liberal]

this "personal experience" stuff

i never said that we had to bring this up, but you did for it ... 🤷‍♂️

[anthonyjg]

I mean yes and the Democratic Party’s relative weakness with young people of color, specifically young black men, is something it’s going to have to grapple with, but this election is about covid and trump is going to hemorrhage white support because of it

[S019ian Liberal]

That's a trade I'm willing to take. I've long been a proponent of Democrats focusing more on gaining white voters. White voters consistently turn out even in midterms, and are spread out more evenly across the map. If you don't do well with whites, you're bound to face disadvantage in senate races as well.

Kinda *racially insensitive* ngl.

[Malarkey Decider]

This is a “story” literally every election cycle since 2004, and yet it never materializes in the actual vote, and the overall non-white vote gets more and more Democratic relative to the country each election.

That's simply incorrect lol, it's been going on for a long time now

What?
In the Modern Era, Obama 2008 was the best the Democratic Party has EVER done with black voters. 2012 was the best a Democrat had EVER done with Hispanics. 2016, despite Clinton not doing quite as well as Obama with minorities, still did better than the average Dem in the 80s, 90s and 00s. In 2018, Democrats won Blacks by 81, Hispanics by 40, and Asians by 54. So no, there is no long-term Democratic decline among minorities.

[GP270watch]

 Yeah this is all noise to give Trump cover for running a white resentment/racist campaign.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

This is a “story” literally every election cycle since 2004, and yet it never materializes in the actual vote, and the overall non-white vote gets more and more Democratic relative to the country each election.

That's simply incorrect lol, it's been going on for a long time now

What?
In the Modern Era, Obama 2008 was the best the Democratic Party has EVER done with black voters. 2012 was the best a Democrat had EVER done with Hispanics. 2016, despite Clinton not doing quite as well as Obama with minorities, still did better than the average Dem in the 80s, 90s and 00s. In 2018, Democrats won Blacks by 81, Hispanics by 40, and Asians by 54. So no, there is no long-term Democratic decline among minorities.

Caveat: if there is a long-term decline with nonwhite voters, it won’t become obvious for at least another election cycle or three. A hypothetical 5-point swing towards Trump from 2016 to 2020 is not a “long-term” trend.

[Agonized-Statism]

I agree, as a person of color myself, that Democrats seem to be losing appeal with certain racial and ethnic minority groups and that Atlas and other Eurocentric echo chambers often miss that point. But Trump isn't exactly campaigning like Kim Klaick, and movements like WalkAway are negligible at this point. IIRC, Trump won 2016 not because minorities swung to him, but because they didn't vote in crucial states. Non-voters, particularly black and Mexican-American ones, are a bigger concern for Democrats at this point than minority Republicans. The Trump administration and its negative image have set back prospects for a more inclusive populist GOP that could have come about with a campaign inspired by the 2013 RNC autopsy, but I wouldn't discount it a generation or two from now so long as the Democratic coalition remains contradictory. You can't have both gentrifiers and the gentrified on the same team forever before people start asking questions.

Before I get dogpiled by said echo chamber, I do disagree with OP on 2020 and the next few election cycles.

[S019ian Liberal]

This is such a laughable claim to the point of bringing me virtually at tears.

What? In the Modern Era, Obama 2008 was the best the Democratic Party has EVER done with black voters. 2012 was the best a Democrat had EVER done with Hispanics. 2016, despite Clinton not doing quite as well as Obama with minorities, still did better than the average Dem in the 80s, 90s and 00s. In 2018, Democrats won Blacks by 81, Hispanics by 40, and Asians by 54. So no, there is no long-term Democratic decline among minorities.

And, so what? I did not ask you to cherry pick data. I asked you to spot out a long term trend which has literally manifested itself without fail for hundreds and if I wanted to search hard enough probably thousands of deletions presumably in a row.

[S019ian Liberal]

Yeah this is all noise to give Trump cover for running a white resentment/racist campaign.

LOL! Classic strategy, of: I don't like the facts I'm seeing so I'll deflect, deflect, deflect until reality is staring me so hard an point-black straight in the face that I can't possibly ignore it anymore. And then I'll finally start to run from the truth!

[Former President tack50]

Minorities are probably trending R I believe (especially young minority men), but it is happening at a glacial pace and will not matter in 2020.

[S019ian Liberal]

This is a “story” literally every election cycle since 2004, and yet it never materializes in the actual vote, and the overall non-white vote gets more and more Democratic relative to the country each election.

That's simply incorrect lol, it's been going on for a long time now

What?
In the Modern Era, Obama 2008 was the best the Democratic Party has EVER done with black voters. 2012 was the best a Democrat had EVER done with Hispanics. 2016, despite Clinton not doing quite as well as Obama with minorities, still did better than the average Dem in the 80s, 90s and 00s. In 2018, Democrats won Blacks by 81, Hispanics by 40, and Asians by 54. So no, there is no long-term Democratic decline among minorities.

Caveat: if there is a long-term decline with nonwhite voters, it won’t become obvious for at least another election cycle or three. A hypothetical 5-point swing towards Trump from 2016 to 2020 is not a “long-term” trend.

We saw them trend rightward from 2012 to 2016 however.

And in down-ballot races, oftentimes in many and I do believe most cases, for many years before that.

Polling has shown for well over a decade that young African Americans are less politically engaged and affected, less likely to participate, far less trusting of the Democratic Party, and way more likely to vote Republican than their older peers. The exact opposite is true (and arguably to an even stronger degree in this teetotaler's time) among White Americans, at least that's for instance.

[S019ian Liberal]

I agree, as a person of color myself, that Democrats seem to be losing appeal with certain racial and ethnic minority groups and that Atlas and other Eurocentric echo chambers often miss that point. But Trump isn't exactly campaigning like Kim Klaick, and movements like WalkAway are negligible at this point. IIRC, Trump won 2016 not because minorities swung to him, but because they didn't vote in crucial states. Non-voters, particularly black and Mexican-American ones, are a bigger concern for Democrats at this point than minority Republicans. The Trump administration and its negative image have set back prospects for a more inclusive populist GOP that could have come about with a campaign inspired by the 2013 RNC autopsy, but I wouldn't discount it a generation or two from now so long as the Democratic coalition remains contradictory. You can't have both gentrifiers and the gentrified on the same team forever before people start asking questions.

Before I get dogpiled by said echo chamber, I do disagree with OP on 2020 and the next few election cycles.

Precisely speaking, so!

[S019ian Liberal]

Tell me again how Biden would outperform Hillary by 5 points among Hispanics in your Fantasyland world? But muh Latino Decisions' strategy told me so! Thanks for the extensive whitesplaining, guys!

[GP270watch]

 If only Latinos voted you'd be looking at President Biden in all states except maybe Florida.

 Everyone knows that a certain amount of Latinos were always going to be absorbed into white racial identity, which is an ever changing thing. The same will also happen with Asians as Asian women and Latina women have high marriage rates with other groups.

[It’s so Joever]

If only Latinos voted you'd be looking at President Biden in all states except maybe Florida.

 Everyone knows that a certain amount of Latinos were always going to be absorbed into white racial identity, which is an ever changing thing. The same will also happen with Asians as Asian women and Latina women have high marriage rates with other groups.

No.
It’s religious and educational divides.
The old racial gap is dying out.
Asians won’t act the same as they are on average far less religious and more college educated.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

If only Latinos voted you'd be looking at President Biden in all states except maybe Florida.

 Everyone knows that a certain amount of Latinos were always going to be absorbed into white racial identity, which is an ever changing thing. The same will also happen with Asians as Asian women and Latina women have high marriage rates with other groups.

No.
It’s religious and educational divides.
The old racial gap is dying out.
Asians won’t act the same as they are on average far less religious and more college educated.

Even with the (IMO) disasterous Dem results in Texas, North Carolina, and Florida- I'm pretty sure the Vietnamese vote didn't swing nearly as R as the Cuban vote.

Pero like... Ya tú sabes. Los cubanoamericanos en el estado de Florida son locos!