Counterpoint: this forum is missing a big-time swing toward Trump among minorities

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People are analyzing this too much with a microscope as if Clinton and Biden strategies were erroneous in ignoring these voters. I would strongly argue that losing non-white voters to Republicans was bound to happen sooner or later.

White Democrats tend to make up disproportionate chunk of liberals.
Non-whites are the conservative fact of the Democratic Party, but still identify with Democrats due to viewing themselves as a part of disadvantaged group. Once they identify less as minorities, more will flee toward Republicans. That's what my parents did in 2016, and they became even more staunch supporters of Trump this year.

This is the reason why you rarely see Republicans defect to Democrats as opposed to vice versa. Democrats naturally have a huge tent of race, religion and ideologies so it's nearly impossible to hold on to all of them.

That's why I always urge Democrats to target the young, recent immigrants and non-voters. It's important for Democrats to work twice as hard just to keep up the pace with Republicans.

If this Election Eve poll is accurate, it doesn't seem like Trump made very significant gains with Asian voters nationwide, even though most groups seem to have swung R by a little bit.

https://aapifund.org/program/research-and-tools/

The AAPI Civic Engagement Fund partnered with twenty-one ally organizations to convene pollsters and conduct the 2020 American Election Eve Poll. This national multi-racial poll offers reliable information about 2020 vote choices and motivations of Native American, Black, Asian American, Latinx, and White voters. We partnered with the following pollsters: Asian American Decisions, African American Research Collaborative, and Latino Decisions to conduct this work.

The American Eve poll was a nationally representative sample of 1,675 Asian Americans and 41 Pacific Islanders. The Asian American sample featured 23% Chinese American, 20% Asian Indian, 15% Filipino American, 14% Vietnamese American, 12% Korean American and 12% Japanese American. The Georgia 7th congressional district poll included 302 Asian American voters, weighted to match the demographics of the district.

National poll- N = 1716 + 2.4% (Oct 23-Nov 2)

Chinese: 72-27-1 (Biden +45)
Filipino: 60-38-2 (Biden +22)
Indian: 70-28-2 (Biden +42)
Japanese: 70-29-1 (Biden +41)
Korean: 71-23-6 (Biden + 48)
Vietnamese: 61-36-3 (Biden +25)
OVERALL: 68-30-2 (Biden +38)

Your link shows that 2016 margin was 75-19 (Clinton +56). That would be 18 point gain for Trump. I don't know how you can say that is not a big gain. Or am I misjudging something?

I would still have to take a look at the precinct data to be sure. Biden's 48 point margin with Koreans almost would imply that he may have done even better than Clinton did. That doesn't match my experience with Koreans, being one myself.

The AALDEF 2016 survey (Clinton +56) is too D-friendly to be nationally representative, since it focused more on non-English speakers living in urban enclaves. edit: yeah from eyeballing the 2016 election eve poll infographic, it looks like Indians and Filipinos had some pretty drastic swings toward Trump.

I suspect Asian ethnic enclaves had stronger swings toward Trump this year than the overall Asian vote, since those communities are more susceptible to misinformation and fake news echo chambers.

Again, I have no idea how accurate this national poll is. But Biden +38 with all Asians is consistent with the AP exit poll showing a 40-ish point margin for Asians. The D margin for the Vietnamese subsample is almost exactly the same as in the 2016 NAAS post-election poll.

[S019ian Liberal]

People are analyzing this too much with a microscope as if Clinton and Biden strategies were erroneous in ignoring these voters. I would strongly argue that losing non-white voters to Republicans was bound to happen sooner or later.

White Democrats tend to make up disproportionate chunk of liberals.
Non-whites are the conservative fact of the Democratic Party, but still identify with Democrats due to viewing themselves as a part of disadvantaged group. Once they identify less as minorities, more will flee toward Republicans. That's what my parents did in 2016, and they became even more staunch supporters of Trump this year.

This is the reason why you rarely see Republicans defect to Democrats as opposed to vice versa. Democrats naturally have a huge tent of race, religion and ideologies so it's nearly impossible to hold on to all of them.

That's why I always urge Democrats to target the young, recent immigrants and non-voters. It's important for Democrats to work twice as hard just to keep up the pace with Republicans.

If this Election Eve poll is accurate, it doesn't seem like Trump made very significant gains with Asian voters nationwide, even though most groups seem to have swung R by a little bit.

https://aapifund.org/program/research-and-tools/

The AAPI Civic Engagement Fund partnered with twenty-one ally organizations to convene pollsters and conduct the 2020 American Election Eve Poll. This national multi-racial poll offers reliable information about 2020 vote choices and motivations of Native American, Black, Asian American, Latinx, and White voters. We partnered with the following pollsters: Asian American Decisions, African American Research Collaborative, and Latino Decisions to conduct this work.

The American Eve poll was a nationally representative sample of 1,675 Asian Americans and 41 Pacific Islanders. The Asian American sample featured 23% Chinese American, 20% Asian Indian, 15% Filipino American, 14% Vietnamese American, 12% Korean American and 12% Japanese American. The Georgia 7th congressional district poll included 302 Asian American voters, weighted to match the demographics of the district.

National poll- N = 1716 + 2.4% (Oct 23-Nov 2)

Chinese: 72-27-1 (Biden +45)
Filipino: 60-38-2 (Biden +22)
Indian: 70-28-2 (Biden +42)
Japanese: 70-29-1 (Biden +41)
Korean: 71-23-6 (Biden + 48)
Vietnamese: 61-36-3 (Biden +25)
OVERALL: 68-30-2 (Biden +38)

Why should we trust thus numbers more than, say, the exit poll? Sample size of 42 lol. Many

We really need to treat american indian/native american, pacific islander or hawaiian, alaskan native, etc. groups separately from asian americans

]from eyeballing the 2016 election eve poll infographic, it looks like Indians and Filipinos had some pretty drastic swings toward Trump.

See here, or here, and here.

People are analyzing this too much with a microscope as if Clinton and Biden strategies were erroneous in ignoring these voters. I would strongly argue that losing non-white voters to Republicans was bound to happen sooner or later.

White Democrats tend to make up disproportionate chunk of liberals.
Non-whites are the conservative fact of the Democratic Party, but still identify with Democrats due to viewing themselves as a part of disadvantaged group. Once they identify less as minorities, more will flee toward Republicans. That's what my parents did in 2016, and they became even more staunch supporters of Trump this year.

This is the reason why you rarely see Republicans defect to Democrats as opposed to vice versa. Democrats naturally have a huge tent of race, religion and ideologies so it's nearly impossible to hold on to all of them.

That's why I always urge Democrats to target the young, recent immigrants and non-voters. It's important for Democrats to work twice as hard just to keep up the pace with Republicans.

If this Election Eve poll is accurate, it doesn't seem like Trump made very significant gains with Asian voters nationwide, even though most groups seem to have swung R by a little bit.

https://aapifund.org/program/research-and-tools/

The AAPI Civic Engagement Fund partnered with twenty-one ally organizations to convene pollsters and conduct the 2020 American Election Eve Poll. This national multi-racial poll offers reliable information about 2020 vote choices and motivations of Native American, Black, Asian American, Latinx, and White voters. We partnered with the following pollsters: Asian American Decisions, African American Research Collaborative, and Latino Decisions to conduct this work.

The American Eve poll was a nationally representative sample of 1,675 Asian Americans and 41 Pacific Islanders. The Asian American sample featured 23% Chinese American, 20% Asian Indian, 15% Filipino American, 14% Vietnamese American, 12% Korean American and 12% Japanese American. The Georgia 7th congressional district poll included 302 Asian American voters, weighted to match the demographics of the district.

National poll- N = 1716 + 2.4% (Oct 23-Nov 2)

Chinese: 72-27-1 (Biden +45)
Filipino: 60-38-2 (Biden +22)
Indian: 70-28-2 (Biden +42)
Japanese: 70-29-1 (Biden +41)
Korean: 71-23-6 (Biden + 48)
Vietnamese: 61-36-3 (Biden +25)
OVERALL: 68-30-2 (Biden +38)

Your link shows that 2016 margin was 75-19 (Clinton +56). That would be 18 point gain for Trump. I don't know how you can say that is not a big gain. Or am I misjudging something?

I would still have to take a look at the precinct data to be sure. Biden's 48 point margin with Koreans almost would imply that he may have done even better than Clinton did. That doesn't match my experience with Koreans, being one myself.

The AALDEF 2016 survey (Clinton +56) is too D-friendly to be nationally representative, since it focused more on non-English speakers living in urban enclaves. edit: yeah from eyeballing the 2016 election eve poll infographic, it looks like Indians and Filipinos had some pretty drastic swings toward Trump.

I suspect Asian ethnic enclaves had stronger swings toward Trump this year than the overall Asian vote, since those communities are more susceptible to misinformation and fake news echo chambers.

Again, I have no idea how accurate this national poll is. But Biden +38 with all Asians is consistent with the AP exit poll showing a 40-ish point margin for Asians. The D margin for the Vietnamese subsample is almost exactly the same as in the 2016 NAAS post-election poll.

@Bolded: I would be careful about making too many assumptions regarding this. Have growing up in one myself, they can be reliably unpredictable in their patterns of behavior on a large scale -- and in the case of East Asians, in any case we'll need to see more concrete evidence and hard data (unlikely to happen) before I can comfortably and confidently conclude in good conscience that this really was the case in terms of stronger swings + trends among this group.

@Italicized: Not even sure about this. In many cases (poorer, working-class, minority-concentrated) enclaves, sure...but there's actually also a significant demographic which does not fit into this description. It takes organizing power (in many cases, depending on the geographic location, social standards, community laws, etc. also political/financial capital) to network successfully and build up coherent, tenable networks of like-minded people with a similar background or origin. When it comes to those who migrated earlier + their descendants, oftentimes they entered areas which were either openly hostile, disproportionately white, or more likely both.

@Bolded test #2: Yes but we can't give it out rubber stamp simply as a result of this fact imo. Errors can cancel out, and even if it nailed the overall result of this group on the head, it doesn't mean that was not just the rest of an lucky coincidence. Furthermore, we don't know the demographic subgroups of their crosstab samples are accurate, especially with glaringly small n sizes in many of those listed above.

@Italicized test #2: I don't know why you think or say this matters...if anything, I think it would be more realistic and convincing to be persuasive on us if the was a noticable lurch among this group rightward, given how effective the anti-communist messaging worked among Cuban, Venezuelan, and even other Asian-American groups (certain Chinese and Korean segments, etc.)

People are analyzing this too much with a microscope as if Clinton and Biden strategies were erroneous in ignoring these voters. I would strongly argue that losing non-white voters to Republicans was bound to happen sooner or later.

White Democrats tend to make up disproportionate chunk of liberals.
Non-whites are the conservative faction of the Democratic Party, but still identify with Democrats due to viewing themselves as a part of disadvantaged group. Once they identify less as minorities, more will flee toward Republicans. That's what my parents did in 2016, and they became even more staunch supporters of Trump this year.

This is the reason why you rarely see Republicans defect to Democrats as opposed to vice versa. Democrats naturally have a huge tent of race, religion and ideologies so it's nearly impossible to hold on to all of them.

That's why I always urge Democrats to target the young, recent immigrants and non-voters. It's important for Democrats to work twice as hard just to keep up the pace with Republicans.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

People are analyzing this too much with a microscope as if Clinton and Biden strategies were erroneous in ignoring these voters. I would strongly argue that losing non-white voters to Republicans was bound to happen sooner or later.

White Democrats tend to make up disproportionate chunk of liberals.
Non-whites are the conservative fact of the Democratic Party, but still identify with Democrats due to viewing themselves as a part of disadvantaged group. Once they identify less as minorities, more will flee toward Republicans. That's what my parents did in 2016, and they became even more staunch supporters of Trump this year.

This is the reason why you rarely see Republicans defect to Democrats as opposed to vice versa. Democrats naturally have a huge tent of race, religion and ideologies so it's nearly impossible to hold on to all of them.

That's why I always urge Democrats to target the young, recent immigrants and non-voters. It's important for Democrats to work twice as hard just to keep up the pace with Republicans.

If this Election Eve poll is accurate, it doesn't seem like Trump made very significant gains with Asian voters nationwide, even though most groups seem to have swung R by a little bit.

https://aapifund.org/program/research-and-tools/

The AAPI Civic Engagement Fund partnered with twenty-one ally organizations to convene pollsters and conduct the 2020 American Election Eve Poll. This national multi-racial poll offers reliable information about 2020 vote choices and motivations of Native American, Black, Asian American, Latinx, and White voters. We partnered with the following pollsters: Asian American Decisions, African American Research Collaborative, and Latino Decisions to conduct this work.

The American Eve poll was a nationally representative sample of 1,675 Asian Americans and 41 Pacific Islanders. The Asian American sample featured 23% Chinese American, 20% Asian Indian, 15% Filipino American, 14% Vietnamese American, 12% Korean American and 12% Japanese American. The Georgia 7th congressional district poll included 302 Asian American voters, weighted to match the demographics of the district.

National poll- N = 1716 + 2.4% (Oct 23-Nov 2)

Chinese: 72-27-1 (Biden +45)
Filipino: 60-38-2 (Biden +22)
Indian: 70-28-2 (Biden +42)
Japanese: 70-29-1 (Biden +41)
Korean: 71-23-6 (Biden + 48)
Vietnamese: 61-36-3 (Biden +25)
OVERALL: 68-30-2 (Biden +38)

Why should we trust thus numbers more than, say, the exit poll? Sample size of 41 lol. Many

We really need to treat american indian/native american, pacific islander or hawaiian, alaskan native, etc. groups separately from asian americans

There’s no breakdown given for the 41 Pacific Islanders surveyed so we don’t care. The 1675 Asian Americans sampled is on par with the AAPI Data Sept 2020 poll sample size, which predicted similar baseline levels of Trump support as this election exit poll.

Again, I’m not sure how representative this is (saw it on Reddit), but it’s consistent with the AP exit poll Asian crosstab showing Biden winning the overall Asian vote by ~40%.

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If this Election Eve poll is accurate, it doesn't seem like Trump made very significant gains with Asian voters nationwide, even though most groups seem to have swung R by a little bit.

https://aapifund.org/program/research-and-tools/

The AAPI Civic Engagement Fund partnered with twenty-one ally organizations to convene pollsters and conduct the 2020 American Election Eve Poll. This national multi-racial poll offers reliable information about 2020 vote choices and motivations of Native American, Black, Asian American, Latinx, and White voters. We partnered with the following pollsters: Asian American Decisions, African American Research Collaborative, and Latino Decisions to conduct this work.

The American Eve poll was a nationally representative sample of 1,675 Asian Americans and 41 Pacific Islanders. The Asian American sample featured 23% Chinese American, 20% Asian Indian, 15% Filipino American, 14% Vietnamese American, 12% Korean American and 12% Japanese American. The Georgia 7th congressional district poll included 302 Asian American voters, weighted to match the demographics of the district.

National poll- N = 1716 + 2.4% (Oct 23-Nov 2)

Chinese: 72-27-1 (Biden +45)
Filipino: 60-38-2 (Biden +22)
Indian: 70-28-2 (Biden +42)
Japanese: 70-29-1 (Biden +41)
Korean: 71-23-6 (Biden + 48)
Vietnamese: 61-36-3 (Biden +25)
OVERALL: 68-30-2 (Biden +38)

Your link shows that 2016 margin was 75-19 (Clinton +56). That would be 18 point gain for Trump. I don't know how you can say that is not a big gain. Or am I misjudging something?

I would still have to take a look at the precinct data to be sure. Biden's 48 point margin with Koreans almost would imply that he may have done even better than Clinton did. That doesn't match my experience with Koreans, being one myself.

I suspect Asian ethnic enclaves had stronger swings toward Trump this year than the overall Asian vote, since those communities are more susceptible to misinformation and fake news echo chambers.

Again, I have no idea how accurate this national poll is. But Biden +38 with all Asians is consistent with the AP exit poll showing a 40-ish point margin for Asians. The D margin for the Vietnamese subsample is almost exactly the same as in the 2016 NAAS post-election poll.

@Bolded: I would be careful about making too many assumptions regarding this. Have growing up in one myself, they can be reliably unpredictable in their patterns of behavior on a large scale -- and in the case of East Asians, in any case we'll need to see more concrete evidence and hard data (unlikely to happen) before I can comfortably and confidently conclude in good conscience that this really was the case in terms of stronger swings + trends among this group.

@Italicized: Not even sure about this. In many cases (poorer, working-class, minority-concentrated) enclaves, sure...but there's actually also a significant demographic which does not fit into this description. It takes organizing power (in many cases, depending on the geographic location, social standards, community laws, etc. also political/financial capital) to network successfully and build up coherent, tenable networks of like-minded people with a similar background or origin. When it comes to those who migrated earlier + their descendants, oftentimes they entered areas which were either openly hostile, disproportionately white, or more likely both.

@Bolded test #2: Yes but we can't give it out rubber stamp simply as a result of this fact imo. Errors can cancel out, and even if it nailed the overall result of this group on the head, it doesn't mean that was not just the rest of an lucky coincidence. Furthermore, we don't know the demographic subgroups of their crosstab samples are accurate, especially with glaringly small n sizes in many of those listed above.

@Italicized test #2: I don't know why you think or say this matters...if anything, I think it would be more realistic and convincing to be persuasive on us if the was a noticable lurch among this group rightward, given how effective the anti-communist messaging worked among Cuban, Venezuelan, and even other Asian-American groups (certain Chinese and Korean segments, etc.)

1) The kind of Asian voter who's most susceptible to right-wing fake news like what's circulating on WeChat is an older immigrant (like over 50) who grew up abroad, either doesn't speak English or speaks it poorly, and is isolated from people outside their ethnic community due to language and socioeconomic barriers. Obviously not everyone who lives in an ethnic enclave is that old or foreign-born, but I think we generally underestimate just how many middle aged and elderly voters there are out there across the board, of all races. The majority of Asian American voters probably did not grow up and do not live in an urban ethnic enclave, which is why I question how representative these urban ethnic enclaves are of the overall Asian electorate.

There are other (legitimate IMO) reasons for urban Asian voters to lean right or vote for center-right candidates, but there is also a very real pattern of people being sucked into fake news bubbles. Asta has repeatedly brought up their elderly parents as an example of older Asians being sucked into fake news echo chambers.

2) 1675 respondents is around the same sample size as the Sept 2020 AAPI Data poll, which had 1500-1600 respondents. The survey did say they asked respondents in both English and various Asian languages, so that eliminates the English only bias. I'm still skeptical of this poll, but not because of sample size issues.

Re: Vietnamese point- I brought that up because there's been a lot of discussion here as to how far Vietnamese Americans have shifted to the right since 2016 (which there is a lot of documented evidence of). We saw this swing quite clearly in the Orange County CA precinct results, where the Vietnamese enclaves shifted back towards Trump. The California Vietnamese vote seems to have been more R (59-38 Biden) than the national average (61-36 Biden per the AAPI Fund poll).

Source: https://www.facebook.com/560989320776907/posts/1433581433517687/?d=n

People are analyzing this too much with a microscope as if Clinton and Biden strategies were erroneous in ignoring these voters. I would strongly argue that losing non-white voters to Republicans was bound to happen sooner or later.

Based on the data we have so far, it looks like this happened mostly with Latino voters, with smaller shifts among black and Asian voters. Native Americans clearly swung D this year.  

[S019ian Liberal]

The Californian vote seems to have been more R than the national average.

This is indeed rather interesting and quite worthy of further investigation deserved research.

Based on the data we have so far, it looks like this happened mostly with Latino voters, with smaller shifts among black and Asian voters. Native Americans clearly swung D this year.  

This record is spotty at best. For instance Robeson NC home to the Lumberton tribes netted 8k votes for Trump in the initial count, when most on atlas seem to have predicted a win for biden there. That's critical in a tight race!

The majority of Asian American voters probably did not grow up and do not live in an urban ethnic enclave, which is why I question how representative these urban ethnic enclaves are of the overall Asian electorate.

Not sure exactly what you're getting at, with this terminology right here -- however I will say my point seems to have been precisely the argument you're advancing right now, as a while so.

there is also a very real pattern of people being sucked into fake news bubbles. Asta has repeatedly brought up their elderly parents as an example of older Asians being sucked into fake news echo chambers.

Couldn't emphasis this enough. I think the same could be said to be true of applying in mine case as well moreover, too.

I think we generally underestimate just how many middle aged and elderly voters there are out there across the board, of all race I .

totally completely fully agree.

1) The kind of Asian voter who's most susceptible to right-wing fake news like what's circulating on WeChat is an older immigrant (like over 50) who grew up abroad, either doesn't speak English or speaks it poorly, and is isolated from people outside their ethnic community due to language and socioeconomic barriers. Obviously not everyone who lives in an ethnic enclave is that old or foreign-born

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The Vietnamese Californian vote seems to have been more R than the national (Vietnamese) average.

This is indeed rather interesting and quite worthy of further investigation deserved research.

NO. it's just for the Vietnamese vote. Vietnamese in California seem to have voted more R than nationwide, which suggests that the Orange County swing was not uniform. Source: PIVOT https://www.facebook.com/560989320776907/posts/1433581433517687/?d=n

Based on the data we have so far, it looks like this happened mostly with Latino voters, with smaller shifts among black and Asian voters. Native Americans clearly swung D this year.  

This record is spotty at best. For instance Robeson NC home to the Lumberton tribes netted 8k votes for Trump in the initial count, when most on atlas seem to have predicted a win for biden there. That's critical in a tight race!

Yeah but the Native American swings in South Dakota and Arizona were probably larger and definitely more significant in determining the swings in those states.

The majority of Asian American voters probably did not grow up and do not live in an urban ethnic enclave, which is why I question how representative these urban ethnic enclaves are of the overall Asian electorate.

Not sure exactly what you're getting at, with this terminology right here -- however I will say my point seems to have been precisely the argument you're advancing right now, as a while so.

Not all of us Asian Americans are from inner-city Chinatown, Koreatown, Little Tokyo, Little Saigon, Little Manila, Little India, etc. Which means our life experiences and political views aren't always the same as people who grew up or live in those urban enclaves. Asian American transplants won't always see eye to eye with people who were born and raised in a big city ethnic enclave, often due to class and educational differences.