PPP-MT: Bullock+1

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Montana Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2020-10-27

Summary: D: 48%, R: 47%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[MT Treasurer]

Republicans have done a great job of relentlessly nationalizing this race and going scorched earth on Bullock, there’s been a lot of coordinated campaigning on the Republican side (and increasingly on the Democratic side as well, albeit to a lesser extent), and Daines has been fairly vocal about his support for Trump, so it’s no surprise that there’s far less split-ticket voting this year than in 2016. People forget that Trump's approval in the 2018 exit poll was only +3 (51/48) when Tester won by 3 (it was probably 1-2 points higher or so but still pretty close to that), and it’s not like he’s gotten more popular since then. Trump’s certainly going to win MT by more than 2 unless I’m completely underestimating how fast the state is transitioning into the next CO, but the range of outcomes in the Senate race is fairly narrow (I’d put it at Bullock +2 -- Daines +4 at this point).

My final predictions (maps coming soon):

MT-PRES: Safe R, Trump +7
MT-SEN: PTU, Daines +2
MT-GOV: Tilt/Lean R, Gianforte +3.5
MT-AL: Tilt R, Rosendale +3

It could be a weirder night than even I am expecting, so we’ll see what happens. It admittedly does feel weird predicting a Republican win in a very close Montana race, but hey, there’s a first time for everything. You could make a case that MT-AL 2017 is Trump's best-case scenario at this point, and I wouldn’t be that shocked if he matched GF's margin in that race (R+5.5), but I’d be stunned if it was closer than that (and I really don’t think it will be).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Republicans have done a great job of relentlessly nationalizing this race and going scorched earth on Bullock, there’s been a lot of coordinated campaigning on the Republican side (and increasingly on the Democratic side as well, albeit to a lesser extent), and Daines has been fairly vocal about his support for Trump, so it’s no surprise that there’s far less split-ticket voting this year than in 2016. People forget that Trump's approval in the 2018 exit poll was only +3 (51/48) when Tester won by 3 (it was probably 1-2 points higher or so but still pretty close to that), and it’s not like he’s gotten more popular since then. Trump’s certainly going to win MT by more than 2 unless I’m completely underestimating how fast the state is transitioning into the next CO, but the range of outcomes in the Senate race is fairly narrow (I’d put it at Bullock +2 -- Daines +4 at this point).

My final predictions (maps coming soon):

MT-PRES: Safe R, Trump +7
MT-SEN: PTU, Daines +2
MT-GOV: Tilt/Lean R, Gianforte +3.5
MT-AL: Tilt R, Rosendale +3

It could be a weirder night than even I am expecting, so we’ll see what happens. It admittedly does feel weird predicting a Republican win in a very close Montana race, but hey, there’s a first time for everything. You could make a case that MT-AL 2017 is Trump's best-case scenario at this point, and I wouldn’t be that shocked if he matched GF's margin in that race (R+5.5), but I’d be stunned if it was closer than that (and I really don’t think it will be).

Ok but Bullock will win