NC-PPP: Cunningham +3
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Author Topic: NC-PPP: Cunningham +3  (Read 1212 times)
VAR
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Junior Chimp
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« on: October 27, 2020, 02:39:51 PM »
Oct. 26-27, 937 voters

Cunningham (D) 47%
Tillis (R-inc) 44%
Not sure 9%

PRES: 51-47 Biden

https://www.protectourcare.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Protect-Our-CarePPP-North-Carolina-Poll.pdf
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WD
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« Reply #1 on: October 27, 2020, 02:40:40 PM »
What’s with all the undecideds?
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GALeftist
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« Reply #2 on: October 27, 2020, 02:44:00 PM »
*SN voice* Junk it. Junk poll. Lean/Likely R race, North Carolinians will never vote for an adulterer (lol). Republicans are clear favorites to hold the Senate and probably win the House.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #3 on: October 27, 2020, 02:44:20 PM »
So this scandal had somewhat of an impact? Cal used to run ahead of Joe Biden. But it's remarkable Tillis has been struggling in almost all quality polls to get out of the low/mid 40s. Not good for an incumbent.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #4 on: October 27, 2020, 02:45:01 PM »
Tossup. It's tightened quite a bit.
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GALeftist
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« Reply #5 on: October 27, 2020, 02:46:13 PM »
Lean D, would be pretty surprised if Tillis hung on
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Woody
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« Reply #6 on: October 27, 2020, 02:46:17 PM »
Lean R.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #7 on: October 27, 2020, 02:47:31 PM »
Quote from: President Johnson on October 27, 2020, 02:44:20 PM
So this scandal had somewhat of an impact? Cal used to run ahead of Joe Biden. But it's remarkable Tillis has been struggling in almost all quality polls to get out of the low/mid 40s. Not good for an incumbent.

I think it's a combination of the scandal and natural tightening. A 7-8 point win never really seemed realistic here.
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One Term Floridian
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« Reply #8 on: October 27, 2020, 02:50:51 PM »
Quote from: President Johnson on October 27, 2020, 02:44:20 PM
So this scandal had somewhat of an impact? Cal used to run ahead of Joe Biden. But it's remarkable Tillis has been struggling in almost all quality polls to get out of the low/mid 40s. Not good for an incumbent.

Cunningham's scandal has clearly turned off a number of voters. These "undecideds" will still lean for him by Election Day imo so he should still be running slightly ahead of Biden
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #9 on: October 27, 2020, 03:02:43 PM »
Dems are gonna win between 51 and 55 seats in the AZ, CO, GA, IA, ME and NC 54

Probably 1 from AK, KS, MT or TX ,55, KS an open sest
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AndyHogan14
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« Reply #10 on: October 27, 2020, 03:52:16 PM »
It is very interesting that while this race has definitely tightened, Tillis still has not led in any recent polls. The last poll I have with a Tillis lead was a Gravis poll back in June.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #11 on: October 27, 2020, 03:57:21 PM »
Quote from: AndyHogan14 on October 27, 2020, 03:52:16 PM
It is very interesting that while this race has definitely tightened, Tillis still has not led in any recent polls. The last poll I have with a Tillis lead was a Gravis poll back in June.
Tbf I'm pretty sure Tillis never led in 2014 either. Of course he was not the incumbent then.
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One Term Floridian
swamiG
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« Reply #12 on: October 27, 2020, 04:00:10 PM »
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on October 27, 2020, 03:57:21 PM
Quote from: AndyHogan14 on October 27, 2020, 03:52:16 PM
It is very interesting that while this race has definitely tightened, Tillis still has not led in any recent polls. The last poll I have with a Tillis lead was a Gravis poll back in June.
Tbf I'm pretty sure Tillis never led in 2014 either. Of course he was not the incumbent then.

He actually led in quite a bit of polls back then. But yeah Hagan led in most polls overall
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #13 on: October 27, 2020, 04:01:11 PM »
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on October 27, 2020, 03:57:21 PM
Quote from: AndyHogan14 on October 27, 2020, 03:52:16 PM
It is very interesting that while this race has definitely tightened, Tillis still has not led in any recent polls. The last poll I have with a Tillis lead was a Gravis poll back in June.
Tbf I'm pretty sure Tillis never led in 2014 either. Of course he was not the incumbent then.

He actually led in a handful of polls, even took a small lead in the aggregate during the summer.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #14 on: October 27, 2020, 04:08:22 PM »
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on October 27, 2020, 04:01:11 PM
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on October 27, 2020, 03:57:21 PM
Quote from: AndyHogan14 on October 27, 2020, 03:52:16 PM
It is very interesting that while this race has definitely tightened, Tillis still has not led in any recent polls. The last poll I have with a Tillis lead was a Gravis poll back in June.
Tbf I'm pretty sure Tillis never led in 2014 either. Of course he was not the incumbent then.

He actually led in a handful of polls, even took a small lead in the aggregate during the summer.

Polls went back and forth with Hagan leading in more polls than not. Though, when you consider NC's partisanship, the tilt of the year, and the fact that incumbents tend to do worse in competative races than polls suggests, it's not suprize she lost. 2020 is shaping up to a D wave year of sorts where Biden is the favorite in NC and Tillis the incumbent
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #15 on: October 27, 2020, 04:53:34 PM »
For Protect Our Care (D)
MoE: 3.2%
Changes with Oct 4-5 poll (not for a partisan sponsor)

Cunningham (D) 47% (-1)
Tillis (R-inc) 44% (+2)
Not sure 9% (-2)
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Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #16 on: October 27, 2020, 08:18:45 PM »
People are already voting and Tills can't even reach 45%.

Sad!
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #17 on: October 27, 2020, 11:02:33 PM »
New Poll: North Carolina Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2020-10-27

Summary: D: 47%, R: 44%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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