MT-PPP: Trump +2

[RBH]

Of course in PPP's case, their lean is partly the result of which polls their clients are willing to release. The sunnier stuff will be released but ProtectOurCare probably isn't releasing polls showing bad results. So..

[AncestralDemocrat.]

How is Bullock only one point up, in a Trump +2 sample.. lol.

[DrScholl]

It's possible for Trump to have trouble in Montana when you consider his position on public lands and national parks.

[Hope For A New Era]

Wow.

Side note, I wonder how long it will be before I stop automatically reading "PPP" in my head as "purchasing power parity."

[Don Vito Corleone]

While I am happy with the result (mostly), I am surprised at just how little ticket splitting there is in Montana this year, compared even to 2018 or 2016.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

It would be so beautiful if MT actually flips.

I’ll be happy with the senate seat going to Bullock. A 2008 redux of the top ticket race wouldn’t shock me, but Biden winning it would.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Wow.

Side note, I wonder how long it will be before I stop automatically reading "PPP" in my head as "purchasing power parity."

I always see it as Point-to-Point Protocol.

[ProgressiveModerate]

IMO, this kept going back and forth between lean and likely R, now moving it with confidence to Lean R where it will likely stay unless there is new evidence to prove otherwise. MT has a lot of Democrats who didn't vote in 2016, who voted for Tester in 2018, and the MT turnout thus far is really good.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

For Protect Our Care (D)
October 26-27
886 voters
MoE: 3.3%
Changes with October 9-10 poll (not for partisan sponsor)

Trump 49% (-3)
Biden 47% (+1)
Not sure 4% (+4)

Someone else previously at 2%

[Heir of Camelot]

I've been saying for a while that Trump the President is not a good fit for Montana like Trump the candidate was.

Montana has a Libertarian bent so Authoritarianism doesn't fly here. Bullock barely outrunning Biden is not that surprising since Polarization is off the charts here this year. Moderate Repubs that used to cross over for Bullock and Tester are basically closet Dems now (see former Gov Racicot and Former SOS Bob Brown). Split ticket voting will be less this year but turnout will be massive.

If you look at the cross tabs the people in this poll were 52% Trump and 36% Hillary and 13% didn't vote in the last election. That jibes with the internal Dem numbers I've seen. The head of the MDP told me once that MT is 52% Repub and 36% strong Dem so you have to run the table with independents and peel off a few moderate pubs to win statewide.

[wbrocks67]

I don't know why people expect Bullock to run ahead of Biden by that much. It certainly feels like there aren't as many ticket splitters this election.

[Adam Griffin]

[Hammy]

It's PPP, yes, and they are not a good pollster. But even then this is way closer than Montana should be in any environment a Republican is supposed to have a chance of winning nationally.

[Badger]

So Trump by about 4-5, give or take MoE. Sounds about right.

[Alcibiades]

I've been saying for a while that Trump the President is not a good fit for Montana like Trump the candidate was.

Montana has a Libertarian bent so Authoritarianism doesn't fly here. Bullock barely outrunning Biden is not that surprising since Polarization is off the charts here this year. Moderate Repubs that used to cross over for Bullock and Tester are basically closet Dems now (see former Gov Racicot and Former SOS Bob Brown). Split ticket voting will be less this year but turnout will be massive.

If you look at the cross tabs the people in this poll were 52% Trump and 36% Hillary and 13% didn't vote in the last election. That jibes with the internal Dem numbers I've seen. The head of the MDP told me once that MT is 52% Repub and 36% strong Dem so you have to run the table with independents and peel off a few moderate pubs to win statewide.

Montana also has a fairly strong anti-incumbent bent, regardless of candidate or party. Nixon ‘72 was the last time it gave an incumbent a larger margin in his re-election bid than the first time he ran.

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Montana President by Public Policy Polling on 2020-10-27

Summary: D: 47%, R: 49%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details