FL (Susquehanna): Trump +5
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  FL (Susquehanna): Trump +5		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: FL (Susquehanna): Trump +5  (Read 2941 times)
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #25 on: October 27, 2020, 12:43:36 PM »
Quote from: ηєω ƒяσηтιєя on October 27, 2020, 12:38:03 PM
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on October 27, 2020, 12:32:34 PM
I *knew* Biden was gonna piss off Florida coal country and all those Florida coal workers.  
So Biden doesn't dig coal? Sad

Oil is the same energy as electric or nuclear power. It changes form..  China has changed its oil industry into coal and electric vehicles.  

Oil is the same solid that causes carbons and pollute the air and wealthy donors like Jerry Jones pay our athletes 30M contracts, but endorsements are 0 for athletes since merchandizing is 0 and ff of nikes, jerseys and shoes

If oil, electricity and nuclear energy,, there wouldn't be bullet trails or electric cars, they are. Gas, liquid and solid.. Oil is the liquid, nukes are the gas and electricity is a solid
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #26 on: October 27, 2020, 12:45:17 PM »
It's pretty clear all these GOP firms deliberately released polls earlier that were close if not Biden ahead so that in the last week they could dump faked "unskewed" versions that show Trump "closing in."

Junk!
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Beet
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« Reply #27 on: October 27, 2020, 12:48:24 PM »
Biden's done here... At this point he should pull out of the state and focus on defending PA,MI and WI.
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ExSky
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« Reply #28 on: October 27, 2020, 12:48:51 PM »
Rassy and Susquehanna are what’s keeping Trump afloat in the RCP average 😂. Nothing to worry about
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Ljube
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« Reply #29 on: October 27, 2020, 12:49:12 PM »
Maybe Biden collapsing among the Hispanics?
If Trump succeeded in portraying him as a left wing radical, that could be the explanation.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #30 on: October 27, 2020, 12:49:58 PM »
Quote from: Beet on October 27, 2020, 12:48:24 PM
Biden's done here... At this point he should pull out of the state and focus on defending PA,MI and WI.

No.
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Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.
Nathan
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« Reply #31 on: October 27, 2020, 12:50:05 PM »
Quote from: Ljube on October 27, 2020, 12:49:12 PM
Maybe Biden collapsing among the Hispanics?
If Trump succeeded in portraying him as a left wing radical, that could be the explanation.

"the Hispanics"
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #32 on: October 27, 2020, 12:52:27 PM »

LOL
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #33 on: October 27, 2020, 12:57:29 PM »
Quote from: Beet on October 27, 2020, 12:48:24 PM
Biden's done here... At this point he should pull out of the state and focus on defending PA,MI and WI.

Why do you keep repeating this tiresome point?  Even if Biden was a little bit behind (which he is only in RCP; he's still ahead by a couple points in 538's much sounder average), the state is certainly close enough to contest, and Biden has more than enough money to compete everywhere.
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South Dakota Democrat
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« Reply #34 on: October 27, 2020, 01:00:21 PM »
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on October 27, 2020, 12:39:55 PM
Quote from: ηєω ƒяσηтιєя on October 27, 2020, 12:38:03 PM
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on October 27, 2020, 12:32:34 PM
I *knew* Biden was gonna piss off Florida coal country and all those Florida coal workers. 
So Biden doesn't dig coal? Sad

VERY low energy. 

I see what you did there.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #35 on: October 27, 2020, 01:01:43 PM »
A 400er sample is of trashy quality.
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Person Man
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« Reply #36 on: October 27, 2020, 01:02:59 PM »
Within the margin of error
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #37 on: October 27, 2020, 01:09:42 PM »
Didn't Biden lead by 7% in a FL poll from Morning Consult just a few days ago?
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TML
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« Reply #38 on: October 27, 2020, 01:16:02 PM »
Quote from: emailking on October 27, 2020, 12:24:58 PM
Quote from: TML on October 27, 2020, 12:20:19 PM
As a general rule, be skeptical of any FL poll which shows either candidate leading by more than 2 points.

That doesn't make any sense. Being ahead by 5 is within the margin of error of being ahead by 2. Even if we could agree the margin is restricted within 4 points, there will regularly be polls outside of that range just statistically.

Most statewide races in FL during the 2010s were decided by less than 2 points. This means that FL is mostly immune to national trends.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #39 on: October 27, 2020, 01:18:07 PM »
The Cubans are the most loyal Rs out there, that's why Crist won the Gov as a moderate Republican and when he ran as an D, he lost

DeSantis is back over 50 percent in approvals
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Left Wing
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« Reply #40 on: October 27, 2020, 01:21:14 PM »
What is the main reason to doubt this? I’m kind of freaking out right now.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #41 on: October 27, 2020, 01:21:46 PM »
Quote from: FalterinArc on October 27, 2020, 01:21:14 PM
What is the main reason to doubt this? I’m kind of freaking out right now.

Susquehanna is a sh*tty pollster?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #42 on: October 27, 2020, 01:22:51 PM »
Quote from: FalterinArc on October 27, 2020, 01:21:14 PM
What is the main reason to doubt this? I’m kind of freaking out right now.

This is a Republican internal for a group affiliated with Sean Hannity.
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Left Wing
FalterinArc
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« Reply #43 on: October 27, 2020, 01:22:57 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on October 27, 2020, 01:21:46 PM
Quote from: FalterinArc on October 27, 2020, 01:21:14 PM
What is the main reason to doubt this? I’m kind of freaking out right now.

Susquehanna is a sh*tty pollster?
But weren’t they pretty decent in 2018?
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #44 on: October 27, 2020, 01:26:24 PM »
Quote from: FalterinArc on October 27, 2020, 01:22:57 PM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on October 27, 2020, 01:21:46 PM
Quote from: FalterinArc on October 27, 2020, 01:21:14 PM
What is the main reason to doubt this? I’m kind of freaking out right now.

Susquehanna is a sh*tty pollster?
But weren’t they pretty decent in 2018?

I might be wrong, but I believe that this is their first cycle polling outside the northeast.
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Person Man
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« Reply #45 on: October 27, 2020, 01:29:49 PM »
Quote from: BudgieForce on October 27, 2020, 01:26:24 PM
Quote from: FalterinArc on October 27, 2020, 01:22:57 PM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on October 27, 2020, 01:21:46 PM
Quote from: FalterinArc on October 27, 2020, 01:21:14 PM
What is the main reason to doubt this? I’m kind of freaking out right now.

Susquehanna is a sh*tty pollster?
But weren’t they pretty decent in 2018?

I might be wrong, but I believe that this is their first cycle polling outside the northeast.

They are being commissioned as internal pollsters this year.
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #46 on: October 27, 2020, 01:31:12 PM »
Their next poll will have Trump up by 4 in North Carolina.
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Arizona Iced Tea
Minute Maid Juice
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« Reply #47 on: October 27, 2020, 01:32:23 PM »
Florida loves Republican Incumbents
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Rand
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« Reply #48 on: October 27, 2020, 01:37:43 PM »
Good for Biden.
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emailking
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« Reply #49 on: October 27, 2020, 07:08:37 PM »
Quote from: TML on October 27, 2020, 01:16:02 PM
Quote from: emailking on October 27, 2020, 12:24:58 PM
Quote from: TML on October 27, 2020, 12:20:19 PM
As a general rule, be skeptical of any FL poll which shows either candidate leading by more than 2 points.

That doesn't make any sense. Being ahead by 5 is within the margin of error of being ahead by 2. Even if we could agree the margin is restricted within 4 points, there will regularly be polls outside of that range just statistically.

Most statewide races in FL during the 2010s were decided by less than 2 points. This means that FL is mostly immune to national trends.

It doesn't mean they're immune to swings and it doesn't mean you should distrust a poll that's consistent with the 2 point margin you're expecting.
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