NYT/Siena - NV: Biden +6
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  NYT/Siena - NV: Biden +6
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Author Topic: NYT/Siena - NV: Biden +6  (Read 2503 times)
Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« on: October 27, 2020, 12:03:44 PM »

Biden 49%
Trump 43%
Jorgensen 3%
Someone else 1%
Not voting 1%
Undecided/Refused 4%


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VAR
VARepublican
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« Reply #1 on: October 27, 2020, 12:04:17 PM »

Crosstabs: https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/nv102320-crosstabs/93966f5c3a9a556d/full.pdf
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ultraviolet
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« Reply #2 on: October 27, 2020, 12:04:33 PM »

Safe D. Biden wins by around 10.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #3 on: October 27, 2020, 12:04:41 PM »

And once again, given NYT/Siena's issue with Latino voters, this result makes sense.
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gf20202
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« Reply #4 on: October 27, 2020, 12:06:28 PM »

With the early/mail vote going well for Ds according to Jon Ralston and polls like this, I wonder why the Biden campaign is even bothering to send Harris today. Any thoughts or guesses?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #5 on: October 27, 2020, 12:06:46 PM »


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Sestak
jk2020
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« Reply #6 on: October 27, 2020, 12:07:14 PM »

Wow, even Failing Nate and his inability to poll Latinos can't produce a close race here!

Safe.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #7 on: October 27, 2020, 12:07:34 PM »

#NeverForget lol

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-nvsen-2.html

NYT/Siena Latinos: Rosen +13
Actual exit poll: Rosen +37

lol
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #8 on: October 27, 2020, 12:07:36 PM »

So the final margin will be around Biden+9/10. Good to know.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #9 on: October 27, 2020, 12:08:00 PM »

With the early/mail vote going well for Ds according to Jon Ralston and polls like this, I wonder why the Biden campaign is even bothering to send Harris. Any thoughts or guesses?

Just to be on the safe side.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #10 on: October 27, 2020, 12:08:31 PM »

Biden is going to Nevada by double digits, and the whole drama over it is going to look ridiculous.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #11 on: October 27, 2020, 12:08:49 PM »

Other tidbits:

--Partisan Breakdown--

Democrat 33%
Republican 29%
Indy/Other 34%

--Trump Approval--

Strongly approve 31%
Somewhat approve 12%
Somewhat disapprove 7%
Strongly disapprove 44%
Don't know/refused 7%

--2016 Vote--

Clinton 36%
Trump 36%
Other 6%
Didn't vote 19%

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Xing
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« Reply #12 on: October 27, 2020, 12:08:55 PM »

Biden will easily win Nevada, Artifact #58,294
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ExSky
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« Reply #13 on: October 27, 2020, 12:09:31 PM »

With the early/mail vote going well for Ds according to Jon Ralston and polls like this, I wonder why the Biden campaign is even bothering to send Harris today. Any thoughts or guesses?

You dont want to do what Clinton did to Michigan and Wisconsin
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #14 on: October 27, 2020, 12:11:12 PM »

October 23-26
809 likely voters
MoE: 3.8%
Changes with October 2-6

Biden 49% (+1)
Trump 43% (+1)
Jorgensen 3% (n/c)
Someone else 1% (n/c)
Not voting for President 1% (+1)
Don't know/Refused 4% (-2)
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #15 on: October 27, 2020, 12:15:51 PM »

Wait Nate is really out here still pushing the "Biden doing bad with Hispanics" narrative after the NYT/Siena 2018 Nevada poll was off *24 points* with Rosen's Latino margin?!

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Bootes Void
iamaganster123
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« Reply #16 on: October 27, 2020, 12:16:09 PM »

Last poll had Biden +4, looks like he closing it out
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ExSky
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« Reply #17 on: October 27, 2020, 12:16:34 PM »

Nate Cohn could literally poll the race after the election, include only those that voted, and still find undecided voters.
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Darthpi Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #18 on: October 27, 2020, 12:17:52 PM »

Sounds reasonable given what we know about how Nevada polling usually goes.
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ExSky
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« Reply #19 on: October 27, 2020, 12:19:36 PM »

Wait Nate is really out here still pushing the "Biden doing bad with Hispanics" narrative after the NYT/Siena 2018 Nevada poll was off *24 points* with Rosen's Latino margin?!




Its baffling, he admits that their polling missed Hispanics and that theyve done nothing to correct for it, and STILL pushes the narrative. At the end of the day, even reputable pollsters get more attention when it appears to be a closer race.
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #20 on: October 27, 2020, 12:20:33 PM »

I think this is a reasonable result and poll.

And can we stop slamming NYT/Siena they have an A+ ranking - they know what theyre doing
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #21 on: October 27, 2020, 12:21:45 PM »

I think this is a reasonable result and poll.

And can we stop slamming NYT/Siena they have an A+ ranking - they know what theyre doing

No one is slamming them overall. But it is a *fact* that they have terrible track record with polling Latinos in places like TX and AZ. The fact that Nate acts like it's not a thing and doesn't provide that context is baffling.
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Asta
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« Reply #22 on: October 27, 2020, 12:23:33 PM »

I've always found it remarkable that Nevada is not solid blue.

It's a relatively irreligious, and demographically diverse state, which should theoretically favor Democrats. But it's gotten redder since 2008. I hope Democrats can keep NV in solid blue category in the future.
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ηєω яσηтιєя
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« Reply #23 on: October 27, 2020, 12:40:55 PM »

I've always found it remarkable that Nevada is not solid blue.

It's a relatively irreligious, and demographically diverse state, which should theoretically favor Democrats. But it's gotten redder since 2008. I hope Democrats can keep NV in solid blue category in the future.
How has Nevada gotten redder since 2008? Huh
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #24 on: October 27, 2020, 12:45:38 PM »

what about muah Jon Ralston horserace narrative
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