NC - Trafalgar: Tillis +2%
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 04:56:01 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 Senate & House Election Polls
  NC - Trafalgar: Tillis +2%
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: NC - Trafalgar: Tillis +2%  (Read 1563 times)
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,771


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 27, 2020, 10:28:12 AM »

538 posted this yesterday. I'm not sure if they're refusing to add new Trafalgar polls yet so in the meantime I'm going to add this one here.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1KlUo8ALSBbk7BgkJ3Qqd3NXp3Hbi-4PB/view

October 20-22
1098 likely voters
MoE: 2.89%
Changes with September 9-11; changes and margin calculated pre-rounding

Tillis 49% (+3)
Cunningham 47% (+1)
Bray (L) 2% (n/c)
Hayes (C) 1% (n/c)
Undecided 2% (-3)
Logged
Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,468
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 27, 2020, 10:43:08 AM »

So Cunningham +3? That's reasonable.
Logged
Chancellor Tanterterg
Mr. X
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,201
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 27, 2020, 10:47:57 AM »

Is there any reason to still include Trafalgar in the averages anymore given that they've basically been caught making up numbers via fake polls?
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 27, 2020, 10:53:22 AM »

Tillis probably wants to do better than match Trump's numbers in Michigan and Pennsylvania...
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,771


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 27, 2020, 10:54:56 AM »

Tillis probably wants to do better than match Trump's numbers in Michigan and Pennsylvania...

This was a Trump +3% poll (49-46), FWIW.
Logged
GALeftist
sansymcsansface
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,735


Political Matrix
E: -7.29, S: -9.48

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 27, 2020, 11:06:55 AM »

Ayo wishful thinking check
Logged
ProgressiveModerate
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,569


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 27, 2020, 11:08:53 AM »

Honestly, this is the first poll from them where the outcome isn't completely out of the realm of possibility, which is telling.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,791
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 27, 2020, 11:15:40 AM »

Trafalgar is only propping up R Senators after the ACB nomination notice that but the voters haven't forgotten the stimulus that McConnell forgotten
Logged
MATTROSE94
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,803
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -5.29, S: -6.43

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 27, 2020, 04:07:04 PM »

It seems like Cal Cunningham is over performing Joe Biden by a bout 1%.
Logged
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,876


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 27, 2020, 11:11:03 PM »

New Poll: North Carolina Senator by Trafalgar Group on 2020-10-22

Summary: D: 47%, R: 49%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
Logged
AncestralDemocrat.
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,381
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: November 08, 2020, 11:22:56 AM »

Gold Standard Trafalgar.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,107
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: November 08, 2020, 11:33:42 AM »

Is there any reason to still include Trafalgar in the averages anymore given that they've basically been caught making up numbers via fake polls?

I gotta say, for a fake pollster Trafalgar is pretty good!
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,791
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: November 08, 2020, 12:19:51 PM »

Pollsters oversampled too many D's, they assumed that since Cooper had it in the bag, Cunningham would win, which didn't happen
Logged
2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,303


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: November 14, 2020, 10:59:47 AM »

Pollsters oversampled too many D's, they assumed that since Cooper had it in the bag, Cunningham would win, which didn't happen
Coopers Race was never ever in the bag given his draconian lockdown measures. There was bound to be some backslash.

Credit to Trafalgar: They absolutely "nailed" this one. Current NC-SEN margin is 1.73 Percentage Points.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.046 seconds with 13 queries.