IA - Insider Advantage/Center For American Greatness (R): Ernst +6
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  IA - Insider Advantage/Center For American Greatness (R): Ernst +6
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Author Topic: IA - Insider Advantage/Center For American Greatness (R): Ernst +6  (Read 1986 times)
VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
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« on: November 01, 2020, 10:09:09 AM »

Oct 30, 400 LV, MoE: 4.9%

Ernst (R-inc) 51%
Greenfield (D) 45%
Stewart (L) 1%
Herzog 1%
Undecided 3%

PRES: 48-46 Trump

https://overland.amgreatness.com/app/uploads/2020/10/IOWA-POLL-102020.pdf
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2020, 10:13:37 AM »

This has Ernst winning 18-44 by 17 points and losing seniors by 23 points.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2020, 10:14:22 AM »

The crosstabs on here are..... something
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2020, 10:14:37 AM »

We should have seen the writing on the wall
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2020, 10:49:00 AM »

Changes with Oct 18-19

Oct 30, 400 LV, MoE: 4.9%

Ernst (R-inc) 51% (+7)
Greenfield (D) 45% (-3)
Stewart (L) 1% (-5)
Herzog 1% (+1)
Undecided 3% (n/c)

PRES: 48-46 Trump

https://overland.amgreatness.com/app/uploads/2020/10/IOWA-POLL-102020.pdf
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2020, 11:00:07 AM »

Biden down by 2 points is pretty good for him, but the shift in this poll towards Ernst makes me worried about the shifts in other Senate races, specifically Maine, North Carolina, and Montana.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #6 on: November 01, 2020, 11:02:08 AM »

Biden down by 2 points is pretty good for him, but the shift in this poll towards Ernst makes me worried about the shifts in other Senate races, specifically Maine, North Carolina, and Montana.

And yet the shift in the Emerson College poll towards Greenfield doesn't make you feel reassured about shifts in other Senate races in Maine, North Carolina and Montana.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #7 on: November 01, 2020, 11:02:49 AM »

Biden down by 2 points is pretty good for him, but the shift in this poll towards Ernst makes me worried about the shifts in other Senate races, specifically Maine, North Carolina, and Montana.

And yet the shift in the Emerson Poll towards Greenfield doesn't make you feel reassured about shifts in other Senate races in Maine, North Carolina and Montana.

I try not to pay attention to Emerson polls.
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #8 on: November 01, 2020, 11:03:17 AM »

Remember Iowa has a 75% Democratic delegation which is slightly more than Illinois 72% Democratic delegation! This poll is wrong!!!!!
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #9 on: November 01, 2020, 11:03:35 AM »

Biden down by 2 points is pretty good for him, but the shift in this poll towards Ernst makes me worried about the shifts in other Senate races, specifically Maine, North Carolina, and Montana.

And yet the shift in the Emerson Poll towards Greenfield doesn't make you feel reassured about shifts in other Senate races in Maine, North Carolina and Montana.

I try not to pay attention to Emerson polls.

Understandable, but if you're going to junk them, you may as well not take "Centre for American Greatness" surveys too seriously either.
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Pollster
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« Reply #10 on: November 01, 2020, 11:13:39 AM »

The libertarian candidate is getting 0% of the vote among...registered libertarians?
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #11 on: November 01, 2020, 11:21:16 AM »
« Edited: November 01, 2020, 11:59:30 AM by Mr.Phips »

Biden down by 2 points is pretty good for him, but the shift in this poll towards Ernst makes me worried about the shifts in other Senate races, specifically Maine, North Carolina, and Montana.

This same pollster had Trump up 2 in PA...
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GALeftist
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« Reply #12 on: November 01, 2020, 11:42:49 AM »

Again, you can tell from this pollster's name alone that they are very fake news.
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Dr. Frankenstein
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« Reply #13 on: November 01, 2020, 11:46:59 AM »

Biden down by 2 points is pretty good for him, but the shift in this poll towards Ernst makes me worried about the shifts in other Senate races, specifically Maine, North Carolina, and Montana.

And yet the shift in the Emerson Poll towards Greenfield doesn't make you feel reassured about shifts in other Senate races in Maine, North Carolina and Montana.

I try not to pay attention to Emerson polls.

Understandable, but if you're going to junk them, you may as well not take "Centre for American Greatness" surveys too seriously either.

Yes, but that would require him to be consistent, a concept that is completely foreign to doomers.
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #14 on: November 01, 2020, 11:48:29 AM »

Again, you can tell from this pollster's name alone that they are very fake news.
It's a B rated pollster, with a 1.1+ Dem bias..
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #15 on: November 01, 2020, 11:49:33 AM »

Again, you can tell from this pollster's name alone that they are very fake news.
It's a B rated pollster, with a 1.1+ Dem bias..

But it's also a Republican internal in this context. The sponsor's name suggests it might not have that +1.1 Dem bias in the results they release.
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #16 on: November 01, 2020, 11:51:07 AM »

Again, you can tell from this pollster's name alone that they are very fake news.
It's a B rated pollster, with a 1.1+ Dem bias..

But it's also a Republican internal in this context.
Some internals can have credence.. I don't junk every PPP poll because they regularly commission data for Dem campaigns.

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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #17 on: November 01, 2020, 11:52:43 AM »

Again, you can tell from this pollster's name alone that they are very fake news.
It's a B rated pollster, with a 1.1+ Dem bias..

But it's also a Republican internal in this context.
Some internals can have credence.. I don't junk every PPP poll because they regularly commission data for Dem campaigns.

I agree but I always treat a firm's internals with skepticism unless and until they have a track record of producing decent internals. I'm not outright junking this, but it doesn't join the Cygnal/PPP tier yet.
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SN2903
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« Reply #18 on: November 01, 2020, 11:56:02 AM »

Safe R
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Xing
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« Reply #19 on: November 01, 2020, 12:04:02 PM »

Probably a bit exaggerated, but I’m close to giving up on this race. Lean R at least, and Democrats need to hope at least two of GA/ME/MT/NC hold for them.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #20 on: November 01, 2020, 07:36:13 PM »

This was Greenfield +5 a few weeks ago, so *not the best* trend for Greenfield. In any case, this is clearly a race where people are basing their prediction on their personal feelings about the incumbent/preconceived notions about the state, so I don’t think any polls are actually going to change a single person's minds/prediction here. The IA thread will be pretty ugly on November 4.
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #21 on: November 01, 2020, 07:39:50 PM »

This has Ernst winning 18-44 by 17 points and losing seniors by 23 points.

lol
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Astatine
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« Reply #22 on: November 01, 2020, 07:47:00 PM »

This has Ernst winning 18-44 by 17 points and losing seniors by 23 points.

lol
The elders care about the price of soybeans, while the youth loves motorcycles.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #23 on: November 01, 2020, 07:47:09 PM »

This was Greenfield +5 a few weeks ago, so *not the best* trend for Greenfield. In any case, this is clearly a race where people are basing their prediction on their personal feelings about the incumbent/preconceived notions about the state, so I don’t think any polls are actually going to change a single person's minds/prediction here. The IA thread will be pretty ugly on November 4.

this is an R pac. trends are useless here.
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VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #24 on: November 15, 2020, 05:21:34 AM »

GOLD STANDARD
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