NC - Trafalgar: Tillis +2%
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  NC - Trafalgar: Tillis +2%
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Author Topic: NC - Trafalgar: Tillis +2%  (Read 911 times)
TiltsAreUnderrated
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« on: October 27, 2020, 10:28:12 AM »

538 posted this yesterday. I'm not sure if they're refusing to add new Trafalgar polls yet so in the meantime I'm going to add this one here.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1KlUo8ALSBbk7BgkJ3Qqd3NXp3Hbi-4PB/view

October 20-22
1098 likely voters
MoE: 2.89%
Changes with September 9-11; changes and margin calculated pre-rounding

Tillis 49% (+3)
Cunningham 47% (+1)
Bray (L) 2% (n/c)
Hayes (C) 1% (n/c)
Undecided 2% (-3)
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Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
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« Reply #1 on: October 27, 2020, 10:43:08 AM »

So Cunningham +3? That's reasonable.
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The Democratic Party Left Me
Mr. X
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« Reply #2 on: October 27, 2020, 10:47:57 AM »

Is there any reason to still include Trafalgar in the averages anymore given that they've basically been caught making up numbers via fake polls?
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #3 on: October 27, 2020, 10:53:22 AM »

Tillis probably wants to do better than match Trump's numbers in Michigan and Pennsylvania...
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #4 on: October 27, 2020, 10:54:56 AM »

Tillis probably wants to do better than match Trump's numbers in Michigan and Pennsylvania...

This was a Trump +3% poll (49-46), FWIW.
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GALeftist
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« Reply #5 on: October 27, 2020, 11:06:55 AM »

Ayo wishful thinking check
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #6 on: October 27, 2020, 11:08:53 AM »

Honestly, this is the first poll from them where the outcome isn't completely out of the realm of possibility, which is telling.
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SOCIALIST MR BAKARI SELLERS
olawakandi
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« Reply #7 on: October 27, 2020, 11:15:40 AM »

Trafalgar is only propping up R Senators after the ACB nomination notice that but the voters haven't forgotten the stimulus that McConnell forgotten
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #8 on: October 27, 2020, 04:07:04 PM »

It seems like Cal Cunningham is over performing Joe Biden by a bout 1%.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #9 on: October 27, 2020, 11:11:03 PM »

New Poll: North Carolina Senator by Trafalgar Group on 2020-10-22

Summary: D: 47%, R: 49%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #10 on: November 08, 2020, 11:22:56 AM »

Gold Standard Trafalgar.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #11 on: November 08, 2020, 11:33:42 AM »

Is there any reason to still include Trafalgar in the averages anymore given that they've basically been caught making up numbers via fake polls?

I gotta say, for a fake pollster Trafalgar is pretty good!
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SOCIALIST MR BAKARI SELLERS
olawakandi
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« Reply #12 on: November 08, 2020, 12:19:51 PM »

Pollsters oversampled too many D's, they assumed that since Cooper had it in the bag, Cunningham would win, which didn't happen
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2016
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« Reply #13 on: November 14, 2020, 10:59:47 AM »

Pollsters oversampled too many D's, they assumed that since Cooper had it in the bag, Cunningham would win, which didn't happen
Coopers Race was never ever in the bag given his draconian lockdown measures. There was bound to be some backslash.

Credit to Trafalgar: They absolutely "nailed" this one. Current NC-SEN margin is 1.73 Percentage Points.
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