Civiqs/Daily Kos: Biden +5 in GA, -14 in MS, +7 in PA

[wbrocks67]

All medium to high quality pollsters for PA have averaged about 7/8 and this continues that trend.

GA, wow. Multiple polls now showing Biden coming thru in the state. Also what, the 3rd poll with Ossoff at 51/Perdue at 45-46?

MS is kind of weird, would think it would shift more than 4% from 2016.

[wbrocks67]

In PA Biden up 87-11 among those who have already voted.

Which, based on the data so far, confirms with the other poll that Biden is doing very well with Indies then too.

[wbrocks67]

All medium to high quality pollsters for PA have averaged about 7/8 and this continues that trend.

GA, wow. Multiple polls now showing Biden coming thru in the state. Also what, the 3rd poll with Ossoff at 51/Perdue at 45-46?

MS is kind of weird, would think it would shift more than 4% from 2016.

MS is probably the most inelastic state in the country. A 4% shift would be huge.

True. The Espy -8 result seems pretty true too. Unfortunately I don't think Espy will get any closer than Hood did in 2019. His max is probably -5.

[wbrocks67]

Next week is going to give at least a few pollsters massive egg on their face in the sun belt.

Honestly, the most recent GA polls haven't been that bad. The only obvious outlier has been Landmark, I have no idea what they are doing. Everyone else has been close to the dead heat race.

[wbrocks67]

I can believe in PA, MS numbers. But GA....

We'll see what happens but GA wouldn't surprise me. The energy there is insane - just look at the EV. They've also added a LOT of new voters since even 2018. It's definitely possible that many pollsters (unlike this one) are not accounting for the swing state energy surrounding the state this year (like TX)

[wbrocks67]

Next week is going to give at least a few pollsters massive egg on their face in the sun belt.

Honestly, the most recent GA polls haven't been that bad. The only obvious outlier has been Landmark, I have no idea what they are doing. Everyone else has been close to the dead heat race.

Even if you believe Biden and Ossoff are up narrowly in GA like I do, there's still a big difference between being up by a point or two and being up 5-7 like Quinn, Civiqs and all have shown.

Well that's the thing, it's quite possible though that the end result ends up like Biden +3 or something, which would make Biden +5 polls make sense. Q-pac may have overestimated a bit. But it's clear to me from everything that those results seem more possible, given the energy in GA, then Trump basically getting his 2016 margin there (Landmark)

[wbrocks67]

I mean, Civiqs is actually a serious pollster unlike Quinnipiac, so they might be on to something. But I’d be surprised if GA voted 5 points to the left of TX.

I mean, GA voted 4 points to the left of TX in 2016, so if Biden is +5 in GA, then that would be about a tied race in TX, which would line up with what we're seeing, right?

[wbrocks67]

Next week is going to give at least a few pollsters massive egg on their face in the sun belt.

Honestly, the most recent GA polls haven't been that bad. The only obvious outlier has been Landmark, I have no idea what they are doing. Everyone else has been close to the dead heat race.

Even if you believe Biden and Ossoff are up narrowly in GA like I do, there's still a big difference between being up by a point or two and being up 5-7 like Quinn, Civiqs and all have shown.

Wbrocks logic:

Poll showing Trump up 4: OUTLIER JUNK! Idc if it’s the best pollster!
Poll showing Biden up 5: Very believable, credible poll!

I mean, it's pretty sound logic. Biden is up nearly double digits nationwide. It would make much more sense for him to be close to +5 in GA than Trump getting his 2016 numbers there. That doesn't take a genius to figure out.