Civiqs/Daily Kos: Biden +5 in GA, -14 in MS, +7 in PA

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Georgia voted 4 points right of Pennsylvania and 4 points left of Texas last time, so I'm not sure why people are so skeptical that it might be 2 points right of Pennsylvania and 5 points left of Texas now.

[wbrocks67]

Next week is going to give at least a few pollsters massive egg on their face in the sun belt.

Honestly, the most recent GA polls haven't been that bad. The only obvious outlier has been Landmark, I have no idea what they are doing. Everyone else has been close to the dead heat race.

Even if you believe Biden and Ossoff are up narrowly in GA like I do, there's still a big difference between being up by a point or two and being up 5-7 like Quinn, Civiqs and all have shown.

Wbrocks logic:

Poll showing Trump up 4: OUTLIER JUNK! Idc if it’s the best pollster!
Poll showing Biden up 5: Very believable, credible poll!

I mean, it's pretty sound logic. Biden is up nearly double digits nationwide. It would make much more sense for him to be close to +5 in GA than Trump getting his 2016 numbers there. That doesn't take a genius to figure out.

[tagimaucia]

I'm agnostic whether they were real numbers or just made up / heavily massaged ones optimized for fundraising purposes, but those supposed Biden internal polls only showed Georgia and Pennsylvania a point apart.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The compiled map still has GA going R for Senate and users complain all the time the can't update their maps when the runoffs happens. Xing and users like that's still has it as R

2014 so many users complained about not updating their LA predicting. When voting ends Monday night don't complain 🎃🎃🎃

[Suburbia]

PA is a tossup now, with what happened in Philly last night

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

PA is a tossup now, with what happened in Philly last night

[Ferguson97]

PA is a tossup now, with what happened in Philly last night

Lol imagine still thinking the protests help Trump with a mountain of polling evidence showing the opposite

[woodley park]

Georgia and Pennsylvania voting in line with each other?  Seems likely!

Buzz, are you starting to re-think your belief that Biden won't crack 290 EVs? Or are you implying that Pennsylvania isn't going to flip back to blue? Or do you just think Georgia will be closer than usual but still non-Atlas red?

[Suburbia]

PA is a tossup now, with what happened in Philly last night

Lol imagine still thinking the protests help Trump with a mountain of polling evidence showing the opposite

There's a thing called silent majority. Italians in Northeast Philly are going to BALK. The Eagles can't do anything to ease tensions

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

GA, with changes from the October 26-29 poll in this series:

Biden 51% (+1)
Trump 46% (-1)
Someone else 2% (n/c)
Unsure 0% (-1)

[ExSky]

Next week is going to give at least a few pollsters massive egg on their face in the sun belt.

Honestly, the most recent GA polls haven't been that bad. The only obvious outlier has been Landmark, I have no idea what they are doing. Everyone else has been close to the dead heat race.

Even if you believe Biden and Ossoff are up narrowly in GA like I do, there's still a big difference between being up by a point or two and being up 5-7 like Quinn, Civiqs and all have shown.

Wbrocks logic:

Poll showing Trump up 4: OUTLIER JUNK! Idc if it’s the best pollster!
Poll showing Biden up 5: Very believable, credible poll!

Funny. I think out of everyone on this board...you do this the most. So why are you so against it? You’re the one who has embraced Trafalgar out of desperation.

[Buzz]

Next week is going to give at least a few pollsters massive egg on their face in the sun belt.

Honestly, the most recent GA polls haven't been that bad. The only obvious outlier has been Landmark, I have no idea what they are doing. Everyone else has been close to the dead heat race.

Even if you believe Biden and Ossoff are up narrowly in GA like I do, there's still a big difference between being up by a point or two and being up 5-7 like Quinn, Civiqs and all have shown.

Wbrocks logic:

Poll showing Trump up 4: OUTLIER JUNK! Idc if it’s the best pollster!
Poll showing Biden up 5: Very believable, credible poll!

Funny. I think out of everyone on this board...you do this the most. So why are you so against it? You’re the one who has embraced Trafalgar out of desperation.

please provide evidence of when I have ever embraced Trafalgar?? I’ll wait because it doesn’t exist.  Baseless claims as usual.

[Lief 🗽]

For Georgia:

Racial breakdown: 60% white, 32% black, 8% other
Party ID: +7 Republican (38 R, 31 D, 31 I)

1,041 LV surveyed (56% of this sample have already voted, actually); MoE +/- 3.3%

Favorability numbers:

- Biden: 46/51 (-5)
- Trump: 45/53 (-8)
- Perdue: 40/51 (-11)
- Ossoff: 48/46 (+2)
- Warnock: 51/29 (+22)
- Loeffler: 30/57 (-27)
- Collins: 37/40 (-3)

Lol at Loeffler and Collins going nuclear on each other and allowing Warnock to become the most popular politician in the state of Georgia 😂

[GeorgiaModerate]

For Georgia:

Racial breakdown: 60% white, 32% black, 8% other
Party ID: +7 Republican (38 R, 31 D, 31 I)

1,041 LV surveyed (56% of this sample have already voted, actually); MoE +/- 3.3%

Favorability numbers:

- Biden: 46/51 (-5)
- Trump: 45/53 (-8)
- Perdue: 40/51 (-11)
- Ossoff: 48/46 (+2)
- Warnock: 51/29 (+22)
- Loeffler: 30/57 (-27)
- Collins: 37/40 (-3)

Lol at Loeffler and Collins going nuclear on each other and allowing Warnock to become the most popular politician in the state of Georgia 😂

On that note...

https://twitter.com/TheRickWilson/status/1321088885695205376

[ExSky]

Next week is going to give at least a few pollsters massive egg on their face in the sun belt.

Honestly, the most recent GA polls haven't been that bad. The only obvious outlier has been Landmark, I have no idea what they are doing. Everyone else has been close to the dead heat race.

Even if you believe Biden and Ossoff are up narrowly in GA like I do, there's still a big difference between being up by a point or two and being up 5-7 like Quinn, Civiqs and all have shown.

Wbrocks logic:

Poll showing Trump up 4: OUTLIER JUNK! Idc if it’s the best pollster!
Poll showing Biden up 5: Very believable, credible poll!

Funny. I think out of everyone on this board...you do this the most. So why are you so against it? You’re the one who has embraced Trafalgar out of desperation.

please provide evidence of when I have ever embraced Trafalgar?? I’ll wait because it doesn’t exist.  Baseless claims as usual.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=403935.0

Right here Buzz! You post AND defend the trafalgar poll. Didn’t even take a minute. You absolutely reek desperation. Look how you get all defensive about trafalgars validity. Literally the day before economist and 538 banned them 😂

[forsythvoter]

There are outliers in both directions. Bottom line is GA is close and that is why Trump and Biden are both campaigning here.

Next week is going to give at least a few pollsters massive egg on their face in the sun belt.

Honestly, the most recent GA polls haven't been that bad. The only obvious outlier has been Landmark, I have no idea what they are doing. Everyone else has been close to the dead heat race.

Even if you believe Biden and Ossoff are up narrowly in GA like I do, there's still a big difference between being up by a point or two and being up 5-7 like Quinn, Civiqs and all have shown.

Wbrocks logic:

Poll showing Trump up 4: OUTLIER JUNK! Idc if it’s the best pollster!
Poll showing Biden up 5: Very believable, credible poll!

[Roronoa D. Law]

Next week is going to give at least a few pollsters massive egg on their face in the sun belt.

Honestly, the most recent GA polls haven't been that bad. The only obvious outlier has been Landmark, I have no idea what they are doing. Everyone else has been close to the dead heat race.

Even if you believe Biden and Ossoff are up narrowly in GA like I do, there's still a big difference between being up by a point or two and being up 5-7 like Quinn, Civiqs and all have shown.

Wbrocks logic:

Poll showing Trump up 4: OUTLIER JUNK! Idc if it’s the best pollster!
Poll showing Biden up 5: Very believable, credible poll!

That poll is an outlier

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Total                                                  18-34 35-49 50-64 65+   White: 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Donald Trump, Republican   55%     25%   48%   48% 70%            35%   72%   81% 90%
Joe Biden, Democrat        41%     63%   43%   50% 30%            48%   24%   18% 10%
Someone else                3%     10%    9%    1%  0%            14%    3%    1%  0%
Unsure                      1%      2%    1%    2%  0%             3%    2%    0%  0%


Biden leads among MS Whites age 18-34 by 13% and leads among all age 18-34 by 38%. The older portion of this combined group supported Obama by 13% in 2012, IIRC.

[Ferguson97]

PA is a tossup now, with what happened in Philly last night

Lol imagine still thinking the protests help Trump with a mountain of polling evidence showing the opposite

There's a thing called silent majority. Italians in Northeast Philly are going to BALK. The Eagles can't do anything to ease tensions

The silent majority stands with Joe Biden

[MT Treasurer]

Total                                                  18-34 35-49 50-64 65+   White: 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Donald Trump, Republican   55%     25%   48%   48% 70%            35%   72%   81% 90%
Joe Biden, Democrat        41%     63%   43%   50% 30%            48%   24%   18% 10%
Someone else                3%     10%    9%    1%  0%            14%    3%    1%  0%
Unsure                      1%      2%    1%    2%  0%             3%    2%    0%  0%


Biden leads among MS Whites age 18-34 by 13% and leads among all age 18-34 by 38%. The older portion of this combined group supported Obama by 13% in 2008, IIRC.

Yeah, the crosstabs seem believable, but I think the actual result will be closer than this. In any case, this poll perfectly encapsulates the long-term challenges the party faces in the Sun Belt. Barring a shift to polarization along gender/educational lines rather than racial/generational divisions as well as major Republican inroads with non-white voters (predominantly male, rural/small-town and to some extent urban, religious, etc.), generational turnover and/or out-of-state migration reducing white support for the GOP by 10-15 percentage points will cause these Sun Belt states to flip sooner or later. I can see future Republicans winning the presidency without GA and maybe even TX, but I really don’t see a path without MS, LA, AL, NC, TN, FL. What may save the party in MS is the fact that the state is nowhere near as urbanized as other Bush/Biden or Romney/Biden states in the South (and is likely to remain that way), but keeping it Safe R in the long run will require a realignment of the parties' coalitions, no matter how reflexively people write it off as implausible.

It should be noted that in MS, Trump received fewer raw votes than Romney, who again received fewer votes than McCain. It’s just obscured by the drop-off in black/D turnout, but I don’t think these Republican margins are sustainable with current coalitions.

[Yoda]

Georgia is Tilt D in my opinion. Never thought I'd say it.

The Economist has it at 57% chance for Biden right now, which is just mind blowing to me.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Georgia and Pennsylvania voting in line with each other?  Seems likely!

I'm skeptical of it too, but weird things can happen in a rapidly trending state.  Prior to 2008, no one would have predicted that VA would vote to the left of OH.

That said, I definitely don't expect Biden to win Georgia by 5.

[Bumaye]

I can believe in PA, MS numbers. But GA....

Trump won Georgia by 5 and PA by 1 point. Is it really not feasible for you that Georgia swings two points harder to Biden - a state with great demographic shifts for the democrats and with more potential left voters likely to vote because it’s actually winnable this time around? 

[Progressive Pessimist]

That Georgia result has to be an outlier, but it still actually makes me feel more optimistic about this state that I have been very bearish on. Biden, Ossoff, and Warnock pulling off upsets is looking more likely.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Georgia voting 2 points to the right of PA isn't that far off from 2016.

When you are blowing your opponent out of the water by 9 points, it is laughable to assume Biden could lose GA.