CA - UC Berkeley: Biden +36

[VAR]

Oct. 16-21, 5352 LV, MoE: 2%

Changes with Sept. 9-15.

Biden 65% (-2)
Trump 29% (+1)

https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-10-27/biden-headed-for-historic-margin-in-california-poll-shows

[Skye]

Damn, that's a pretty large sample lol.

[Landslide Lyndon]

TRUMP SURGING!!!

[Rand]

Galactic D.

[Figueira]

2016 was 62-32. This is in line with an 8-point Biden lead nationwide, with a universal swing.

[wbrocks67]

2016 was 62-32. This is in line with an 8-point Biden lead nationwide, with a universal swing.

Usual caveats however that CA polling underestimates Dems, etc

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Freedom State.

[ProudModerate2]

Galactic D.

Proud to live in CA.

[forsythvoter]

Where in CA is Biden making gains from 2016? SoCal outside of LA is the only region I was thinking would swing D in CA this year.

[Ferguson97]

Where in CA is Biden making gains from 2016? SoCal outside of LA is the only region I was thinking would swing D in CA this year.

Increasing LA/SF turnout?

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Where in CA is Biden making gains from 2016? SoCal outside of LA is the only region I was thinking would swing D in CA this year.

Sacramento exurbs like Placer and El Dorado Counties perhaps. Though there’s still a lot of Trumpers waving flags and driving big trucks with flags in the area, anecdotally speaking.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Fuller release:

https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4vh740hf

Jorgensen 1% (n/c)
Hawkins 0% (but some voters) (n/c)
La Riva 0% (but some voters) (n/c from at 0%)
De La Fuente 0% (but some voters) (n/c from at 0%)
Undecided 3% (n/c)

[DrScholl]

Where in CA is Biden making gains from 2016? SoCal outside of LA is the only region I was thinking would swing D in CA this year.

Sacramento exurbs like Placer and El Dorado Counties perhaps. Though there’s still a lot of Trumpers waving flags and driving big trucks with flags in the area, anecdotally speaking.

They are pretty much doing that everywhere. I live in southern California in an educated area where the voter registration has gone from R to D since 2016 and Trump supporters are driving around with flags all the time. They had a huge parade a couple of weeks ago.

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: California President by Berkeley IGS on 2020-10-21

Summary: D: 65%, R: 29%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Calthrina950]

Where in CA is Biden making gains from 2016? SoCal outside of LA is the only region I was thinking would swing D in CA this year.

Sacramento exurbs like Placer and El Dorado Counties perhaps. Though there’s still a lot of Trumpers waving flags and driving big trucks with flags in the area, anecdotally speaking.

They are pretty much doing that everywhere. I live in southern California in an educated area where the voter registration has gone from R to D since 2016 and Trump supporters are driving around with flags all the time. They had a huge parade a couple of weeks ago.

I can relate to this somewhat. My stepmother, who despises Trump, told me today that my father said to her a few days before that I was "completely wrong" about how the election is going to transpire, given that he's seen Trump signs and Trump supporters everywhere, including people unfurling banners on the highway, and that he hasn't seen anything comparable for Biden. He himself is a Trump supporter, having voted enthusiastically for him both in 2016 and this year. He thinks Joe Biden is suffering from dementia, buys into all of the stories concerning Hunter Biden, and believes that Trump has been a much better President than Obama.

And I've talked about the scores of Trump supporters who've come through my job, wearing hats, shirts, masks, bandannas, and even face shields with his name or campaign slogans on them. To date, I have not seen anyone wearing Biden gear. So it's true that Trump supporters-and this point was made to me elsewhere on this forum, I believe by New Frontier-are much more open with their support for him, but that does not mean that Trump is favored to win. El Paso County-where I live-will be carried for him by his supporters, but he's set to lose Colorado by double digits. The state as a whole cannot stand Trump, just like how your home state of California as a whole will give Biden a potential 2-1 edge, no matter how enthusiastic Trump supporters are. In both Colorado and California, they are a minority of all voters.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Those age crosstabs, jesus.

18-29 voters:  Biden 75-17
30-39 voters:  Biden 68-24
40-49 voters:  Biden 64-29

Also, Biden +20 in the Inland Empire. The GOP better hope they strangely included Imperial County. Because if that holds, he's gonna be doing better in the IE than Dubya did less than 20 years ago. Incredible. (God I wish Dems ran a better funded candidate in CA-42)