NY11-NBC/Marist: Malliotakis (R) +2
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  NY11-NBC/Marist: Malliotakis (R) +2
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Author Topic: NY11-NBC/Marist: Malliotakis (R) +2  (Read 3029 times)
lfromnj
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« Reply #25 on: October 26, 2020, 05:23:55 PM »
« edited: October 26, 2020, 05:29:36 PM by #proudtikitorchmarcher »

0 chance this district goes to Manhattan. Manhattan is also overstreched with rep numbers. Rather Rose takes in the super woke hipsters in Brooklyn next to Manhattan.
Plus Rose is from Brooklyn, so I'd assume if the district has to expand, he'd want it to grow in Brooklyn.
Tbh I always found the "Staten-hattan" district idea to be kind of affront from a geographic perspective as well.

The district was actually Staten Island and Lower Manhattan, plus Ellis Island and the Statue of Liberty, before redistricting in 1982. Guy Molinari flipped it in 1980 after the previous incumbent got caught in Abscam, and then it got shifted to Brooklyn to presumably shore him up.

NY also lost like 6 seats in 1980, it was probably also  the desire for Manhattan to keep as many seats as possible.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #26 on: October 26, 2020, 05:50:26 PM »

People saying "run it to soho" obviously have no idea how big NYC is area wise lol.

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bronz4141
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« Reply #27 on: October 26, 2020, 07:26:09 PM »

It fascinated me that Staten Island is a RED borough.

I know it really is far diffrent from the rest of NYC but still...

None of the NYC suburbs to the North or West (NJ) have red CD’s. And even directly to the East are blue districts on Long Island ... how is Staten Island so much of a red leaner

*and I ask again, how do we increase the majority by 10 when we don’t hold onto our seats we already have

Even though Staten Island is in the city, transportation to Manhattan (or even to the fashionable parts of Brooklyn) is harder than it is from across the Hudson, or Westchester, or Long Island. Someone hoping to move to an NYC suburb for the purpose of commuting to somewhere in Manhattan would prefer not to live on Staten Island. It is also home to police neighborhoods which might be extremely alienated from the Democratic Party as it exists in 2020.

Otoh, if you are in the NYPD or FDNY don't you have to commute to Manhattan or perhaps even further afield?

Yes, you have to drive through NJ (Bayonne-Elizabeth) to get to Manhattan or further, or you can drive to the Verrazzano Bridge into Bay Ridge, etc.
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bronz4141
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« Reply #28 on: October 26, 2020, 07:27:31 PM »

It fascinated me that Staten Island is a RED borough.

I know it really is far diffrent from the rest of NYC but still...

None of the NYC suburbs to the North or West (NJ) have red CD’s. And even directly to the East are blue districts on Long Island ... how is Staten Island so much of a red leaner

*and I ask again, how do we increase the majority by 10 when we don’t hold onto our seats we already have

Even though Staten Island is in the city, transportation to Manhattan (or even to the fashionable parts of Brooklyn) is harder than it is from across the Hudson, or Westchester, or Long Island. Someone hoping to move to an NYC suburb for the purpose of commuting to somewhere in Manhattan would prefer not to live on Staten Island. It is also home to police neighborhoods which might be extremely alienated from the Democratic Party as it exists in 2020.

This. The only Democratic city councilmember on S.I. is a Black woman named Debi Rose, she is not related to Max Rose. She represents North Shore, which is more urban and diverse than the white homogeneous South Shore, which is more Trumpian and Blue Lives Matter.

Rose holds on, but police neighborhoods are probably done with Dems for their all-in embrace of BLM. That's not good for relations at all

Rose wins 52%-46%



If he loses, I can see Rose running for Mayor.

AOC is going to box him out. Rose may be too moderate. Even Eric Adams may be too moderate.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #29 on: October 26, 2020, 07:32:34 PM »

It fascinated me that Staten Island is a RED borough.

I know it really is far diffrent from the rest of NYC but still...

None of the NYC suburbs to the North or West (NJ) have red CD’s. And even directly to the East are blue districts on Long Island ... how is Staten Island so much of a red leaner

*and I ask again, how do we increase the majority by 10 when we don’t hold onto our seats we already have

Even though Staten Island is in the city, transportation to Manhattan (or even to the fashionable parts of Brooklyn) is harder than it is from across the Hudson, or Westchester, or Long Island. Someone hoping to move to an NYC suburb for the purpose of commuting to somewhere in Manhattan would prefer not to live on Staten Island. It is also home to police neighborhoods which might be extremely alienated from the Democratic Party as it exists in 2020.

This. The only Democratic city councilmember on S.I. is a Black woman named Debi Rose, she is not related to Max Rose. She represents North Shore, which is more urban and diverse than the white homogeneous South Shore, which is more Trumpian and Blue Lives Matter.

Rose holds on, but police neighborhoods are probably done with Dems for their all-in embrace of BLM. That's not good for relations at all

Rose wins 52%-46%



If he loses, I can see Rose running for Mayor.

AOC is going to box him out. Rose may be too moderate. Even Eric Adams may be too moderate.

After De Blasio, don’t you think people want a moderate mayor?
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bronz4141
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« Reply #30 on: October 26, 2020, 07:49:22 PM »

It fascinated me that Staten Island is a RED borough.

I know it really is far diffrent from the rest of NYC but still...

None of the NYC suburbs to the North or West (NJ) have red CD’s. And even directly to the East are blue districts on Long Island ... how is Staten Island so much of a red leaner

*and I ask again, how do we increase the majority by 10 when we don’t hold onto our seats we already have

Even though Staten Island is in the city, transportation to Manhattan (or even to the fashionable parts of Brooklyn) is harder than it is from across the Hudson, or Westchester, or Long Island. Someone hoping to move to an NYC suburb for the purpose of commuting to somewhere in Manhattan would prefer not to live on Staten Island. It is also home to police neighborhoods which might be extremely alienated from the Democratic Party as it exists in 2020.

This. The only Democratic city councilmember on S.I. is a Black woman named Debi Rose, she is not related to Max Rose. She represents North Shore, which is more urban and diverse than the white homogeneous South Shore, which is more Trumpian and Blue Lives Matter.

Rose holds on, but police neighborhoods are probably done with Dems for their all-in embrace of BLM. That's not good for relations at all

Rose wins 52%-46%



If he loses, I can see Rose running for Mayor.

AOC is going to box him out. Rose may be too moderate. Even Eric Adams may be too moderate.

After De Blasio, don’t you think people want a moderate mayor?

De Blasio was probably TOO moderate on the NYPD for NYC Democrats.

Rose would be seen as a "collaborator, racist", etc.

Adams, Wiley or someone else will be mayor

Rose would run for his seat again in 2022

I don't think a SI resident has been mayor....ever
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #31 on: October 26, 2020, 08:02:07 PM »

It fascinated me that Staten Island is a RED borough.

I know it really is far diffrent from the rest of NYC but still...

None of the NYC suburbs to the North or West (NJ) have red CD’s. And even directly to the East are blue districts on Long Island ... how is Staten Island so much of a red leaner

*and I ask again, how do we increase the majority by 10 when we don’t hold onto our seats we already have

Even though Staten Island is in the city, transportation to Manhattan (or even to the fashionable parts of Brooklyn) is harder than it is from across the Hudson, or Westchester, or Long Island. Someone hoping to move to an NYC suburb for the purpose of commuting to somewhere in Manhattan would prefer not to live on Staten Island. It is also home to police neighborhoods which might be extremely alienated from the Democratic Party as it exists in 2020.

This. The only Democratic city councilmember on S.I. is a Black woman named Debi Rose, she is not related to Max Rose. She represents North Shore, which is more urban and diverse than the white homogeneous South Shore, which is more Trumpian and Blue Lives Matter.

Rose holds on, but police neighborhoods are probably done with Dems for their all-in embrace of BLM. That's not good for relations at all

Rose wins 52%-46%



If he loses, I can see Rose running for Mayor.

AOC is going to box him out. Rose may be too moderate. Even Eric Adams may be too moderate.

After De Blasio, don’t you think people want a moderate mayor?

De Blasio was probably TOO moderate on the NYPD for NYC Democrats.

Rose would be seen as a "collaborator, racist", etc.

Adams, Wiley or someone else will be mayor

Rose would run for his seat again in 2022

I don't think a SI resident has been mayor....ever

I definitely see Rose getting his seat back in 2022.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #32 on: October 26, 2020, 08:03:54 PM »

Nicole is going to win.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #33 on: October 27, 2020, 10:33:29 AM »

Fuller release: http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/NBC-4-NY_Marist-Poll_CD11-Likely-Voters_NOS-and-Tables_202010230908.pdf

Other 1%
Undecided 5%
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bronz4141
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« Reply #34 on: October 27, 2020, 11:00:48 AM »

Rose wins 52%-46%
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #35 on: December 16, 2020, 07:57:26 AM »

There's so many of these posts, bud. Hopefully you've learned for the future not to junk every piece of favorable data for the GOP.. lol.
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VAR
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« Reply #36 on: December 16, 2020, 08:26:16 AM »

There's so many of these posts, bud. Hopefully you've learned for the future not to junk every piece of favorable data for the GOP.. lol.

Narrator: He hasn't.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #37 on: December 16, 2020, 11:24:17 AM »
« Edited: December 16, 2020, 11:53:05 AM by Calthrina950 »

There's so many of these posts, bud. Hopefully you've learned for the future not to junk every piece of favorable data for the GOP.. lol.

Narrator: He hasn't.

In general, I've noticed that several posters on here seem to be reverting into the mentality of the "Emerging Democratic Majority", casting the Republicans as a dying minority party and asserting their belief that Democrats still have the upper hand over the long term. If even this election could not disprove this, then nothing will.
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