NY11-NBC/Marist: Malliotakis (R) +2

[Skye]

Malliotakis (R) 48
Rose (D, inc.) 46

The survey was conducted Oct. 19-21. The margin of error among the 650 likely voters polled was 4.7 percent.

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/politics/decision-2020/malliotakis-narrowly-leads-rose-in-tight-staten-island-race-nbc-4-marist-poll-finds/2685646/?_osource=SocialFlowTwt_NYBrand

[wbrocks67]

Trump winning by 7 here? Junk this.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

October 19-21
650 likely voters
MoE: 4.7%

Nicole Malliotakis (R) 48%
Max Rose (D) 46%

[The Dowager Mod]

October 19-21
650 likely voters
MoE: 4.7%

Nicole Malliotakis (R) 48%
Max Rose (D) 46%

I'm ok with this. 

[Roblox]

Think I’d be just fine with Max rose losing as Biden wins comfortably nationally and democrats win the house and senate.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Trump winning by 7 here? Junk this.

He won by 10 points, in 2016.. so a 7 point lead now is not entirely unrealistic. Not everywhere will have a complete uniform swing against Trump.

Your calls to junk any data even slightly positive to republicans is hilarious and the epitome of a hack.

[MillennialModerate]

It fascinated me that Staten Island is a RED borough.

I know it really is far diffrent from the rest of NYC but still...

None of the NYC suburbs to the North or West (NJ) have red CD’s. And even directly to the East are blue districts on Long Island ... how is Staten Island so much of a red leaner

*and I ask again, how do we increase the majority by 10 when we don’t hold onto our seats we already have

[GALeftist]

Still Tilt D.

[Vosem]

It fascinated me that Staten Island is a RED borough.

I know it really is far diffrent from the rest of NYC but still...

None of the NYC suburbs to the North or West (NJ) have red CD’s. And even directly to the East are blue districts on Long Island ... how is Staten Island so much of a red leaner

*and I ask again, how do we increase the majority by 10 when we don’t hold onto our seats we already have

Even though Staten Island is in the city, transportation to Manhattan (or even to the fashionable parts of Brooklyn) is harder than it is from across the Hudson, or Westchester, or Long Island. Someone hoping to move to an NYC suburb for the purpose of commuting to somewhere in Manhattan would prefer not to live on Staten Island. It is also home to police neighborhoods which might be extremely alienated from the Democratic Party as it exists in 2020.

[Suburbia]

It fascinated me that Staten Island is a RED borough.

I know it really is far diffrent from the rest of NYC but still...

None of the NYC suburbs to the North or West (NJ) have red CD’s. And even directly to the East are blue districts on Long Island ... how is Staten Island so much of a red leaner

*and I ask again, how do we increase the majority by 10 when we don’t hold onto our seats we already have

Even though Staten Island is in the city, transportation to Manhattan (or even to the fashionable parts of Brooklyn) is harder than it is from across the Hudson, or Westchester, or Long Island. Someone hoping to move to an NYC suburb for the purpose of commuting to somewhere in Manhattan would prefer not to live on Staten Island. It is also home to police neighborhoods which might be extremely alienated from the Democratic Party as it exists in 2020.

This. The only Democratic city councilmember on S.I. is a Black woman named Debi Rose, she is not related to Max Rose. She represents North Shore, which is more urban and diverse than the white homogeneous South Shore, which is more Trumpian and Blue Lives Matter.

Rose holds on, but police neighborhoods are probably done with Dems for their all-in embrace of BLM. That's not good for relations at all

Rose wins 52%-46%

[H. Ross Peron]

It fascinated me that Staten Island is a RED borough.

I know it really is far diffrent from the rest of NYC but still...

None of the NYC suburbs to the North or West (NJ) have red CD’s. And even directly to the East are blue districts on Long Island ... how is Staten Island so much of a red leaner

*and I ask again, how do we increase the majority by 10 when we don’t hold onto our seats we already have

Even though Staten Island is in the city, transportation to Manhattan (or even to the fashionable parts of Brooklyn) is harder than it is from across the Hudson, or Westchester, or Long Island. Someone hoping to move to an NYC suburb for the purpose of commuting to somewhere in Manhattan would prefer not to live on Staten Island. It is also home to police neighborhoods which might be extremely alienated from the Democratic Party as it exists in 2020.

Otoh, if you are in the NYPD or FDNY don't you have to commute to Manhattan or perhaps even further afield?

[Woody]

Lean R.

[Pollster]

Important to note that, of the few polls of this district in 2018, Rose outperformed his numbers significantly.

No getting around, though, that Rose is easily among the most endangered Dem incumbents.

[Tekken_Guy]

It fascinated me that Staten Island is a RED borough.

I know it really is far diffrent from the rest of NYC but still...

None of the NYC suburbs to the North or West (NJ) have red CD’s. And even directly to the East are blue districts on Long Island ... how is Staten Island so much of a red leaner

*and I ask again, how do we increase the majority by 10 when we don’t hold onto our seats we already have

Even though Staten Island is in the city, transportation to Manhattan (or even to the fashionable parts of Brooklyn) is harder than it is from across the Hudson, or Westchester, or Long Island. Someone hoping to move to an NYC suburb for the purpose of commuting to somewhere in Manhattan would prefer not to live on Staten Island. It is also home to police neighborhoods which might be extremely alienated from the Democratic Party as it exists in 2020.

This. The only Democratic city councilmember on S.I. is a Black woman named Debi Rose, she is not related to Max Rose. She represents North Shore, which is more urban and diverse than the white homogeneous South Shore, which is more Trumpian and Blue Lives Matter.

Rose holds on, but police neighborhoods are probably done with Dems for their all-in embrace of BLM. That's not good for relations at all

Rose wins 52%-46%

If he loses, I can see Rose running for Mayor.

[Mr.Phips]

It fascinated me that Staten Island is a RED borough.

I know it really is far diffrent from the rest of NYC but still...

None of the NYC suburbs to the North or West (NJ) have red CD’s. And even directly to the East are blue districts on Long Island ... how is Staten Island so much of a red leaner

*and I ask again, how do we increase the majority by 10 when we don’t hold onto our seats we already have

Even though Staten Island is in the city, transportation to Manhattan (or even to the fashionable parts of Brooklyn) is harder than it is from across the Hudson, or Westchester, or Long Island. Someone hoping to move to an NYC suburb for the purpose of commuting to somewhere in Manhattan would prefer not to live on Staten Island. It is also home to police neighborhoods which might be extremely alienated from the Democratic Party as it exists in 2020.

This. The only Democratic city councilmember on S.I. is a Black woman named Debi Rose, she is not related to Max Rose. She represents North Shore, which is more urban and diverse than the white homogeneous South Shore, which is more Trumpian and Blue Lives Matter.

Rose holds on, but police neighborhoods are probably done with Dems for their all-in embrace of BLM. That's not good for relations at all

Rose wins 52%-46%

If he loses, I can see Rose running for Mayor.

Or running in again in a reconfigured district in 2022.

[Tekken_Guy]

It fascinated me that Staten Island is a RED borough.

I know it really is far diffrent from the rest of NYC but still...

None of the NYC suburbs to the North or West (NJ) have red CD’s. And even directly to the East are blue districts on Long Island ... how is Staten Island so much of a red leaner

*and I ask again, how do we increase the majority by 10 when we don’t hold onto our seats we already have

Even though Staten Island is in the city, transportation to Manhattan (or even to the fashionable parts of Brooklyn) is harder than it is from across the Hudson, or Westchester, or Long Island. Someone hoping to move to an NYC suburb for the purpose of commuting to somewhere in Manhattan would prefer not to live on Staten Island. It is also home to police neighborhoods which might be extremely alienated from the Democratic Party as it exists in 2020.

This. The only Democratic city councilmember on S.I. is a Black woman named Debi Rose, she is not related to Max Rose. She represents North Shore, which is more urban and diverse than the white homogeneous South Shore, which is more Trumpian and Blue Lives Matter.

Rose holds on, but police neighborhoods are probably done with Dems for their all-in embrace of BLM. That's not good for relations at all

Rose wins 52%-46%

If he loses, I can see Rose running for Mayor.

Or running in again in a reconfigured district in 2022.

Is it possible to make a district blue enough to win with Staten Island on it?

[lfromnj]

It is actually impressive how Republican southern staten island is, I can't think of too many other suburban areas where Trump got 75% of the vote. The only other areas are really in the deep south where white voting is that polarized that close to a city.

The only areas in a non southern state for a larger metro is just maybe parts of Washington county Wisconsin,southern Indianapolis exurbs, and Western Hamilton county.

[Mr.Phips]

It fascinated me that Staten Island is a RED borough.

I know it really is far diffrent from the rest of NYC but still...

None of the NYC suburbs to the North or West (NJ) have red CD’s. And even directly to the East are blue districts on Long Island ... how is Staten Island so much of a red leaner

*and I ask again, how do we increase the majority by 10 when we don’t hold onto our seats we already have

Even though Staten Island is in the city, transportation to Manhattan (or even to the fashionable parts of Brooklyn) is harder than it is from across the Hudson, or Westchester, or Long Island. Someone hoping to move to an NYC suburb for the purpose of commuting to somewhere in Manhattan would prefer not to live on Staten Island. It is also home to police neighborhoods which might be extremely alienated from the Democratic Party as it exists in 2020.

This. The only Democratic city councilmember on S.I. is a Black woman named Debi Rose, she is not related to Max Rose. She represents North Shore, which is more urban and diverse than the white homogeneous South Shore, which is more Trumpian and Blue Lives Matter.

Rose holds on, but police neighborhoods are probably done with Dems for their all-in embrace of BLM. That's not good for relations at all

Rose wins 52%-46%

If he loses, I can see Rose running for Mayor.

Or running in again in a reconfigured district in 2022.

Is it possible to make a district blue enough to win with Staten Island on it?

Yep.  Remove the Bay Ridge/Bensonhurst area of Brooklyn (votes about 58% Dem) and substitute in Soho and East Village in Manhattan (vote around 90% Dem).  Republicans would need to win Staten Island with a around 63% of the vote to win the district.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It fascinated me that Staten Island is a RED borough.

I know it really is far diffrent from the rest of NYC but still...

None of the NYC suburbs to the North or West (NJ) have red CD’s. And even directly to the East are blue districts on Long Island ... how is Staten Island so much of a red leaner

*and I ask again, how do we increase the majority by 10 when we don’t hold onto our seats we already have

Even though Staten Island is in the city, transportation to Manhattan (or even to the fashionable parts of Brooklyn) is harder than it is from across the Hudson, or Westchester, or Long Island. Someone hoping to move to an NYC suburb for the purpose of commuting to somewhere in Manhattan would prefer not to live on Staten Island. It is also home to police neighborhoods which might be extremely alienated from the Democratic Party as it exists in 2020.

This. The only Democratic city councilmember on S.I. is a Black woman named Debi Rose, she is not related to Max Rose. She represents North Shore, which is more urban and diverse than the white homogeneous South Shore, which is more Trumpian and Blue Lives Matter.

Rose holds on, but police neighborhoods are probably done with Dems for their all-in embrace of BLM. That's not good for relations at all

Rose wins 52%-46%

If he loses, I can see Rose running for Mayor.

Or running in again in a reconfigured district in 2022.

Is it possible to make a district blue enough to win with Staten Island on it?

Yep.  Remove the Bay Ridge/Bensonhurst area of Brooklyn (votes about 58% Dem) and substitute in Soho and East Village in Manhattan (vote around 90% Dem).  Republicans would need to win Staten Island with a around 63% of the vote to win the district.

Even that is unnecessary. Just run it up into Park Slope.

[wbrocks67]

Should note that RV is Rose +1, but LV model is heavily GOP.

[lfromnj]

0 chance this district goes to Manhattan. Manhattan is also overstreched with rep numbers. Rather Rose takes in the super woke hipsters in Brooklyn next to Manhattan.

[Storr]

0 chance this district goes to Manhattan. Manhattan is also overstreched with rep numbers. Rather Rose takes in the super woke hipsters in Brooklyn next to Manhattan.

Plus Rose is from Brooklyn, so I'd assume if the district has to expand, he'd want it to do so there.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

0 chance this district goes to Manhattan. Manhattan is also overstreched with rep numbers. Rather Rose takes in the super woke hipsters in Brooklyn next to Manhattan.

Plus Rose is from Brooklyn, so I'd assume if the district has to expand, he'd want it to grow in Brooklyn.

Tbh I always found the "Staten-hattan" district idea to be kind of affront from a geographic perspective as well.

[Roll Roons]

0 chance this district goes to Manhattan. Manhattan is also overstreched with rep numbers. Rather Rose takes in the super woke hipsters in Brooklyn next to Manhattan.

Plus Rose is from Brooklyn, so I'd assume if the district has to expand, he'd want it to grow in Brooklyn.

Tbh I always found the "Staten-hattan" district idea to be kind of affront from a geographic perspective as well.

The district was actually Staten Island and Lower Manhattan, plus Ellis Island and the Statue of Liberty, before redistricting in 1982. Guy Molinari flipped it in 1980 after the previous incumbent got caught in Abscam, and then it got shifted to Brooklyn to presumably shore him up.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Rose will win if he’s outpolling Biden by 5%.