PA: Insider Advantage Trump + 3

[Gass3268]

Ugh, this poll screwed up the 538 numbers, both nationally and in PA.

[Ljube]

Ugh, this poll screwed up the 538 numbers, both nationally and in PA.

I don't trust Insider Advantage, but I expect the other polls to show a movement toward Trump.

[RBH]

Isn't this the same one that was literally caught making up numbers?

I think you're thinking of Strategic Vision, which is a different R-leaning Georgia-based polling firm.

InsiderAdvantage is an R-leaning Georgia-based firm has been around for a long time. The last few cycles they were Opinion Savvy/InsiderAdvantage but they apparently are just Insider Advantage again?

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is literally 10 points off the PA average. This is exactly what I mean; we keep getting all these R outlier polls but never polls that show Biden up 17% in PA, and even Biden up by double digits in the state is rare. It's clear something is fishy with the polls.

[Alben Barkley]

This is literally 10 points off the PA average. This is exactly what I mean; we keep getting all these R outlier polls but never polls that show Biden up 17% in PA, and even Biden up by double digits in the state is rare. It's clear something is fishy with the polls.

That's because there are Republican "firms" like this that release straight-up fake polls to screw with the averages. I don't think there is a Democratic equivalent.

[EJ24]

Take a look at their website, you might as well be reading Breitbart LMAO

GARBAGE.

https://insideradvantage.com/

[Senator Incitatus]

I was responding to the point that Biden is the one with vague plans.

The argument isn't that Biden "has vague plans." The argument is that the headline of his plans (BIDEN HATE FOSSIL FUEL) will lose him votes, so he's stuck explaining his plans (and in doing so vaguely, failing to even explain). Surely you've heard the maxim "if you're explaining, you're losing."

Trump is stupid and shallow and his campaign is stupid and shallow, with no attempt at explanation (i.e. effective).

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is literally 10 points off the PA average. This is exactly what I mean; we keep getting all these R outlier polls but never polls that show Biden up 17% in PA, and even Biden up by double digits in the state is rare. It's clear something is fishy with the polls.

That's because there are Republican "firms" like this that release straight-up fake polls to screw with the averages. I don't think there is a Democratic equivalent.

This is another reason I suspect polling averages may be underestimating Biden.

[Alben Barkley]

Take a look at their website, you might as well be reading Breitbart LMAO

GARBAGE.

https://insideradvantage.com/

The UI is garbage too. How come conservatives can never put together an attractive-looking website?

[mijan]

PA will vote 7 points right of IA according to insider advantage. Do they think its 1988.

[Rand]

Hahahaha

I will continue to tell you - Trump carries PA. Which would be election over.

I'm holding you up to this statement

He ignores the Biden +8 PA polls but comes out of hiding for this one.

[Fargobison]

I do think PA wil be Trump's best state out of the trio with WI and MI that he flipped in 16 but yeah this is a junk poll.

Some GOP pollsters have their own secret sauce it seems, the "silent" Trump voters in 2016 effect have given them some kind of excuse to ramp it up to 11 this year which is either going to make them very right or most likely very wrong. 

[MT Treasurer]

From insider advantage? Lol

It was a meme response to a meme poll, but yes, it’s hard to square this poll with their other poll (Oct 18-19) showing Biden narrowly ahead in IA and Greenfield beating Ernst by 5:

https://overland.amgreatness.com/app/uploads/2020/10/IOWA-POLL-.pdf

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why do people pay attention to these polls, the polls show a blue wave, Harrison, HEGAR, are wave isdursnce, this poll is obviously wrong

[wbrocks67]

Also, once and for all, the gas/oil comments are not going to make a difference in PA. First of all, it wasn't a gaffe, and second, I want to know why people are in this revisionist history where oil and gas matter at all in Pennsylvania. I live there - and they certainly don't. Maybe in a *specific* area, but not the entire state.

[wbrocks67]

Ugh, this poll screwed up the 538 numbers, both nationally and in PA.

538's PA average is very odd right now. Within the last 4/5 days, we've gotten a lot of high and medium quality polling there - +10, +8, +7, +5, +9, and +8. And yet the average is +5. Seems like it's weighting a lot of the crappier polling more heavily for some reason.

[TheLaRocca]

Obvious trash but so are the Biden +10 polling.

Just assume national numbers and PA votes to the right of the that number by 2 to 4 percentage points.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

LOL this was actually put into the aggregate.

[Gass3268]

LOL this was actually put into the aggregate.

You live in Pennsylvania, are voters aged 18-44 gonna vote for Trump?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Obvious trash but so are the Biden +10 polling.

Just assume national numbers and PA votes to the right of the that number by 2 to 4 percentage points.

Biden + 10 (3% off the PA average of 7%) is not comparable to a poll that's 10% off at 3%. Could you imagine what this forum would be saying if we got even a Biden + 15% poll out of PA?