MA-UMass Amherst: Biden +35 (user search)
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  MA-UMass Amherst: Biden +35 (search mode)
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Author Topic: MA-UMass Amherst: Biden +35  (Read 1326 times)
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,771


« on: October 26, 2020, 02:18:56 PM »

October 14-21
713 likely voters
MoE: 4.5% for 725 registered voters

Not sure 3%
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,771


« Reply #1 on: October 26, 2020, 02:29:48 PM »


This is SurveyMonkey and PureSpectrum erasure.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,771


« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2020, 04:45:52 AM »

Biden will likely reach Obama 2008 levels across New England.

I doubt he does quite as well as Obama 2008 in VT and RI, but I guess it’s possible. I really don’t see him reaching Obama levels in ME, though.

How much do you want to bet that Biden beats Obama 2008's percentage in at least one of the five non-Massachusetts New England states? (It's pretty clear that he will in Massachusetts if the polls are even close to accurate.) I'm not particularly invested in this specific question so let's keep it low-stakes--how about an avatar change for one week?

Now, now, I didn’t say I’d be surprised if Biden got close to/matched Obama in 2008 in CT and NH. Tongue

I’m not invested in it either, so avatar change for one week if Biden does better than Obama 2008 in one of VT/ME/RI (without CT/NH)?

Deal.

MT Treasurer won. Biden won ME by 10 points (Obama +17), RI by 20 points (Obama +28), and VT by 33 points (Obama +37).


Yes, but in the context of a much smaller PV victory than most of us expected. I think most of us underestimated just how hard most of New England would snap back this time and am a lot less sure Maine will be one of the Republican party's easier targets next time.
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