NV/GA/FL (Trafalgar): Trump Leads

[Buzz]

https://twitter.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1323584487842873347?s=21
The fact that Trump is leading in NV makes me doubt all their credibility lol

[Torrain]

Why are they so insistent on this?

[EJ24]

https://twitter.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1323584487842873347?s=21
The fact that Trump is leading in NV makes me doubt all their credibility lol

Oh for the love.....

[Hammy]

GA is Tilt D if +5 is all they can get, considering they were 10 points off in 2018.

Their usually polling error in FL puts the state pretty much at the <1% margin that I'm expecting--where all the polls seem to point

Nevada...

[DaleCooper]

After their embarrassing crosstabs scandal a couple weeks ago, I'm more convinced than ever that all their numbers are made up.

[Crumpets]

This Robert C. Cahaly guy has really embraced the "live fast, die young" mantra, hasn't he.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Their pages aren't working right now, but from their twitter

FL
Oct 31 - Nov 2
Changes with Oct 25-28

Trump +2
Trump 49% (n/c)
Biden 47% (n/c)
Jorgensen 2% (n/c)
Other 1% (-1)
Undecided 1% (n/c)

GA
Oct 31 - Nov 2
Changes with July 15-18

Trump +4
Trump 50% (n/c)
Biden 45% (+2)
Jorgensen 3% (n/c)
Another party candidate 1% (-1)
Undecided 1% (-1)

NV
Oct 31 - Nov 2
Changes with Oct 28-29

Trump +1
Trump 49% (+2)
Biden 48% (-1)
Jorgensen 1% (-1)
Other 1% (n/c)
Undecided 1% (n/c)

These may very well be the last Trafalgar polls.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DeSantis has a 60 percent approval rating thats why Trump won FL

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

DeSantis has a 60 percent approval rating thats why Trump won FL

So much for DeSantis getting crushed in a landslide for his COVID response, lol

Also so far Florida and Georgia were both right and we'll see about Nevada but if Mexicans are going for Trump by the margins suggested by what we've seen from Texas they just might be right there too.

Does Trafalgar have the last laugh again? I warned you guys not to write them off completely.

[JohnCA246]

So how does it look like Trafalgar or Rasmussen did?

[Malarkey Decider]

So how does it look like Trafalgar or Rasmussen did?

For Trafalgar:
Their Results (what I expect for Final Tallies)

PA: Trump +2 (Biden +1)
MI: Trump +3 (Biden +2)
OH: Trump +5 (Trump +8)
NC: Trump +2 (Trump +1)
NV: Trump +1 (Biden +1)
FL: Trump +2 (Trump +3)
Ga: Trump +5 (Biden +<1)
MN: Biden +3 (Biden +7)
WI: Tie (Biden +1)

So they were off a average of 2.8%. R+1.9% on average.

Not great, but no pollster really did well.

[Malarkey Decider]

So how does it look like Trafalgar or Rasmussen did?

For Trafalgar:
Their Results (what I expect for Final Tallies)

PA: Trump +2 (Biden +1)
MI: Trump +3 (Biden +2)
OH: Trump +5 (Trump +8)
NC: Trump +2 (Trump +1)
NV: Trump +1 (Biden +1)
FL: Trump +2 (Trump +3)
Ga: Trump +5 (Biden +<1)
MN: Biden +3 (Biden +7)
WI: Tie (Biden +1)

So they were off a average of 2.8%. R+1.9% on average.

Not great, but no pollster really did well.

Trafalgar probably off a little more in PA, MI, GA, and maybe NV as more votes come in. Based off a what I've seen over the last few elections, this is basically my view of Trafalgar:

Ohio: Biased in favor of Democrats
Florida: Really good, possibly best pollster in the state.
Midwest: Probably off a little in favor in Republican's, but overall okay
Other: Again Okay
Georgia: Flaming Ball of Trash

[AGA]

Does the fact that they had GA to the right of FL and Ohio much closer to WI, MI, and PA than in actual results confirm that they've just been bulls***ing numbers?

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Never trust Trafalgar on GA!

[Malarkey Decider]

Does the fact that they had GA to the right of FL and Ohio much closer to WI, MI, and PA than in actual results confirm that they've just been bulls***ing numbers?

No. Margin of Error exists. While I do think they manipulate their numbers, this proves nothing.

[Rep Jessica]

Question. Was Trafalgar the most accurate poll?

[Hammy]

So how does it look like Trafalgar or Rasmussen did?

For Trafalgar:
Their Results (what I expect for Final Tallies)

PA: Trump +2 (Biden +1)
MI: Trump +3 (Biden +2)
OH: Trump +5 (Trump +8)
NC: Trump +2 (Trump +1)
NV: Trump +1 (Biden +1)
FL: Trump +2 (Trump +3)
Ga: Trump +5 (Biden +<1)
MN: Biden +3 (Biden +7)
WI: Tie (Biden +1)

So they were off a average of 2.8%. R+1.9% on average.

Not great, but no pollster really did well.

Trafalgar probably off a little more in PA, MI, GA, and maybe NV as more votes come in. Based off a what I've seen over the last few elections, this is basically my view of Trafalgar:

Ohio: Biased in favor of Democrats
Florida: Really good, possibly best pollster in the state.
Midwest: Probably off a little in favor in Republican's, but overall okay
Other: Again Okay
Georgia: Flaming Ball of Trash

They seem to under-poll black, Hispanic, and white college voters.
In Florida, they over-polled Republicans in 2018 but Trump over-performed with Cubans and as a result they came in slightly left of the result.
Minnesota and Georgia they've been consistently to the right--but as Trump did better with Hispanics this year, Georgia was closer to the result than in 2018.
They were likely right in Michigan in 2016 due to lower black turnout, but they came out in higher numbers this year so they again under-polled Dems.

I have no idea why there's a left bias in Ohio--they had the gubernatorial race going D in 2018 and were to the left of the result by about the same margin this year.

It seems they have sound methodology so 2016 wasn't just a fluke and they're clearly not making up numbers--but how accurate they are seems to depend on how much of the electorate is non-college whites, whether black turnout is underestimated, and how Hispanics vote.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Question. Was Trafalgar the most accurate poll?

After quick eyeballing the polls, I think, they are. At least one of the most accurate.