What state will replace Ohio as the bell-weather of presidential races?

[ExSky]

Ohio seems to be a very tight race that’s probably pure tossup right now with a very high chance of voting for Trump while Biden easily takes the overall race. For decades Ohio has been the state both parties look to but that appears to be coming to an end. Ohio has steadily lost its political capital through the decades as it continues to shed EVs. It’s a must have for republicans now and just an option for Dems in the race for 270

What is going to take its place? My pick would be one of the Sun Belt states, namely Arizona or maybe Texas within a cycle or 2. These states cover the country’s changing demographics while also representing the massive voting divide between urban and rural America (Maricopa in AZ vs the rest of the state and The Dallas/Houston/Austin/SA metros vs rural Texas vs suburban Texas)

[ProgressiveModerate]

Ohio seems to be a very tight races that’s probably pure tossup right now with a very high chance of voting for Trump while Biden easily takes the overall race. For decades Ohio has been the state both parties look to but that appears to be coming to an end. Ohio has steadily lost its political capital through the decades as it continues to shed EVs.

What is going to take its place? My pick would be one of the Sun Belt states, namely Arizona or maybe Texas within a cycle or 2. These states cover a the country’s changing demographics while also representing the massive voting divide between urban and rural America (Maricopa in AZ vs the rest of the state and The Dallas/Houston/Austin/SA metros vs rural Texas vs suburban Texas)

Texas maybe, since it’s 38 electoral votes is huge, but I disagree with AZ; I think it’ll zoom to the left too fast sorta like VA and CO, which never received a bellwether status. I think FL will be pretty close in the coming cycles and isn’t trending either direction, same with NC, so maybe those 2, though FL more so since it’s more infamous. If PA suburban growth stalls it’s rural trends, then PA could be up there too.

[forza nocta]

Yea Texas seems like a likely choice. Or maybe North Carolina

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Pa and FL are the bellwethers, if either party party wins the state, they are likely to lose

[Buzz]

Pennsylvania

[Xing]

FL, PA, or WI (I don't buy that it's destined to become a Safe R state.)

[Roll Roons]

I expect Florida to remain a bellwether for quite some time. North Carolina is also very possible. For Texas, Georgia and Arizona, I’d like to see what happens to the suburbs in those states post-Trump.

[Zache]

Wisconsin at least for a couple more cycles.

I don't buy FL as a bellwether after 2018. Florida is Florida.

[Alben Barkley]

Plot twist: Missouri again!

Seriously though, aside from Ohio, Florida has been the most consistent bellwether since 1964. In all that time, only once (1992) did it not vote for the winner. And of course in 2000, it decided the winner.

I see little reason to believe this will stop soon. I expect Biden to win Florida and the presidency, and for the state to remain closely contested for some time to come. It’s possible Democrats win without it, if not this year than soon, but it’s also possible it trends to the left. Most likely? It doesn’t trend too sharply in either direction and remains a critical swing state and bellwether.

[Suburbia]

North Carolina

Florida is still a bellwether.

[Lambsbread]

The Keystone state

[redjohn]

FL will continue to be the bellwether state. It seems like the rust belt will likely continue to trend R (after this election), and IA+OH will gradually become even less competitive in tighter races nationally. WI+MI+MN+PA aren't even close to being off the table for Democrats, though. The fact that Biden can still lead by 10+ in these states means white voters in these states will continue to be swing-y voters.

[Non Swing Voter]

Pennsylvania right now.  Until Texas becomes true tossup, then it's not only the bellwether, it's the tipping point state.

[mileslunn]

I would say Pennsylvania.  Florida is sort of a bellwether at least in electoral college, which is what matters, but popular vote wise consistently votes about 3 points right of the country as a whole, which at moment is tipping point. 

Ohio is no longer a bellwether but I don't believe it will like Missouri become solid Republican either.  It has a much larger urban population so will vote right of nation as a whole, but still winnable for Democrats in good election.  Smaller industrial communities have swung to GOP, but it still has three metro areas over a million people.  Cleveland always a democrat stronghold, but Columbus used to be more swing and Cincinnati fairly Republican.  Now all three lean Democrat so loss in smaller industrial centers will be offset by Democrat gains in Columbus and Cincinnati suburbs. 

Missouri has two large metro areas, but a sizeable chunk of St. Louis is on Illinois side and sizeable chunk of Kansas City on Kansas side.  If those two metro areas were entirely in Missouri, not straddling state lines, I think state would be like Ohio, lean GOP but still winnable in good election. 

[Lognog]

Wisconsin

[MarkD]

I think Florida is going to be the bell-weather state. In the last 90 years, it has only voted for the losing candidate twice, in 1960 and 1992.

[TDAS04]

Pennsylvania for now.

[Hope For A New Era]

Pennsylvania. NC, GA, FL, TX will be too inelastic unless there's a major reduction in race polarization, and AZ will zoom to the left without ever really being a true swing state, in the style of Virginia.

PA has the same "a little bit of everything" characteristic that at one time made Missouri a bellwether state.

Somewhat related - I'm increasingly thinking WI will be left of MI for a while. The Driftless seems to be bouncing back, and Democrats have a huge amount of room to grow in the suburbs. In Michigan, any gains in Oakland will be offset by losses in Macomb, and rural rock bottom has not been hit yet.

[Agonized-Statism]

A forty-something electoral vote Texas could be as powerful a bellwether as New York was in the 1800s.

[Del Tachi]

Pennsylvania

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AZ will replace OH as the bellwether, since Goldwater McCain has helped Rs win AZ, but not anymore

[S019]

TX because Republicans honestly can't win without it and it looks like it'll become D-tilting in the not so distant future, while AZ and GA look poised to zoom left, though Pennsylvania is another good answer. FL is just too quirky to stay a bellwether for long, especially if TX goes down the path of becoming a new Nevada (small but stubborn Dem lean) or if SEPA growth overcomes rural trends in PA and turns it into a D leaning state, in either scenario, FL could still easily vote Republican.

[Mr. Smith]

Florida.

[MABA 2020]

It will always be Florida

[Catalyst138]

To be a bellwether you can’t just be consistently close, you also have to vote WITH the country. As in, a bellwether state is capable of making large swings as the country as a whole swings towards one of the parties. Pennsylvania fits this, Florida does not.