TX(DFP) - Biden +1
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Author Topic: TX(DFP) - Biden +1  (Read 1562 times)
MplsDem
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« on: October 26, 2020, 10:47:39 AM »
Biden 49, Trump 48
10/22-10/25
1018 LV

https://filesforprogress.org/memos/2020-senate-project/week-6/dfp_psp_tx_10.26.pdf
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EJ24
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« Reply #1 on: October 26, 2020, 10:48:02 AM »
Muh fracking bump

Good for Trump
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #2 on: October 26, 2020, 10:50:28 AM »
Suck it University of Houston/YouGov.
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Person Man
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« Reply #3 on: October 26, 2020, 10:53:34 AM »
So it all comes down to Texas...of course, I would have long taken a break from politics after starting at the new map for a few days. My poor girlfriend...
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #4 on: October 26, 2020, 10:53:37 AM »
« Edited: October 26, 2020, 10:57:23 AM by TiltsAreUnderrated »
538's listing this one as a partisan poll
MoE: 3.1%
Changes with October 15-18

Biden 49% (+2)
Trump 48% (+2)
Jorgensen 1% (-1)
Hawkins 0% (but some voters) (-1)
Not sure 2% (-3)
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Skye
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« Reply #5 on: October 26, 2020, 10:53:47 AM »

Yeah, screw the pollsters who show results I don't like.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #6 on: October 26, 2020, 10:55:02 AM »
Quote from: Skye on October 26, 2020, 10:53:47 AM

Yeah, screw the pollsters who show results I don't like.

This but ironically, as I was being in my initial post.
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #7 on: October 26, 2020, 10:55:14 AM »
Looking forward to YouGov apologizing for giving us all a bit of a scare this morning!
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
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« Reply #8 on: October 26, 2020, 10:57:06 AM »

Huh The tipping-point state is almost certainly going to be either one of the Rust Belt trio or Arizona. Biden winning Texas would be the equivalent of Obama 2008 winning VA/NC/IN--a nice bonus in a near-blowout, not the state that ultimately made the difference.
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ExSky
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« Reply #9 on: October 26, 2020, 10:58:27 AM »

The Yougov poll is still a sensible result
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TopShelfGoal
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« Reply #10 on: October 26, 2020, 11:02:50 AM »
Quote from: ExSky on October 26, 2020, 10:58:27 AM

The Yougov poll is still a sensible result

Yeah all TX results we have seen ranging from Biden +3 to Trump +5 are all consistent with a pretty close race.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #11 on: October 26, 2020, 11:03:43 AM »
I thought the poll from earlier today made this Safe R
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #12 on: October 26, 2020, 11:12:18 AM »
Quote from: ProgressiveModerate on October 26, 2020, 11:03:43 AM
I thought the poll from earlier today made this Safe R

Who is the more reliable pollster?

Exactly
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Crumpets
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« Reply #13 on: October 26, 2020, 11:20:03 AM »
Spongebob: Hey Patrick! What am I now?
Patrick: Uh, a goddamn hero?
Spongebob: No! I'm Texas!
Patrick: What's the difference?! HAHAHAHAHA

^^^
Texas, all this can be yours in just 8 days
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #14 on: October 26, 2020, 11:21:34 AM »
Nearly every somewhat-to-good pollster is showing this is as literally a tied tossup. That Trump +5 result was a clear outlier.
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BigSerg
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« Reply #15 on: October 26, 2020, 11:31:22 AM »
Pls mods change title


D internal poll
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BigSerg
7sergi9
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« Reply #16 on: October 26, 2020, 11:32:34 AM »

lol
University of Houston vs D internal poll... ok
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #17 on: October 26, 2020, 11:33:03 AM »
Quote from: 7sergi9 on October 26, 2020, 11:32:34 AM

lol
University of Houston vs D internal poll... ok

D4P is not a D internal. Also, this is in line with the average more than the YouGov poll was
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #18 on: October 26, 2020, 11:34:14 AM »
Quote from: MillennialModerate on October 26, 2020, 11:12:18 AM
Quote from: ProgressiveModerate on October 26, 2020, 11:03:43 AM
I thought the poll from earlier today made this Safe R

Who is the more reliable pollster?

Exactly

Honestly, none of the TX polling is very reliable by itself. TX is very difficult to poll and it’s the first cycle it’s ever seriously been contested. However, from 2016 and 2018 we can infer that in general, the voters who are missed in TX polls are voters who would tend to lean D
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BigSerg
7sergi9
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« Reply #19 on: October 26, 2020, 11:34:59 AM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on October 26, 2020, 11:33:03 AM
Quote from: 7sergi9 on October 26, 2020, 11:32:34 AM

lol
University of Houston vs D internal poll... ok

D4P is not a D internal. Also, this is in line with the average more than the YouGov poll was

538's listing this one as a partisan poll (@IndivisibleTeam
 D)
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #20 on: October 27, 2020, 01:36:53 AM »
New Poll: Texas President by Data 4 Progress on 2020-10-25

Summary: D: 49%, R: 48%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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