TX-03 (DCCC): Biden +11
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Author Topic: TX-03 (DCCC): Biden +11  (Read 1419 times)
wbrocks67
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« on: October 26, 2020, 10:37:04 AM »
Biden 51
Trump 40

Trump +14 district
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #1 on: October 26, 2020, 10:37:47 AM »
Pre-Fracking Bump (TM), so no

I am intelligent
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ExSky
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« Reply #2 on: October 26, 2020, 10:38:42 AM »
That big beautiful suburban shift.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #3 on: October 26, 2020, 10:40:08 AM »
Biden's winning Texas with that kind of shift.

Remember: 2016's district-level polling showed Trump improving while statewide results did not.
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Devils30
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« Reply #4 on: October 26, 2020, 10:42:07 AM »
DCCC so take with grain of salt but Collin County will be close.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #5 on: October 26, 2020, 11:04:04 AM »
Biden’s flipping Collin County with this, and so goes Collin goes Texas
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The Mikado
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« Reply #6 on: October 26, 2020, 11:09:11 AM »
You could do the whole "internal, knock 5 points off" and this still is a result that makes it impossible for Trump to win TX. It's that bad for him.

Also, go Lulu! Know a lot of people up in TX-03 and they're very optimistic about that race.
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Person Man
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« Reply #7 on: October 26, 2020, 11:11:50 AM »
The burbs are the future of the Democratic Party, if there is one. Ironically, it could help, not hurt, to be more progressive with these voters.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #8 on: October 26, 2020, 11:14:47 AM »
Big if true. These district by district poll in almost all states indicate a major Dem swing. I have no doubt TX will be very tight in the end.
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #9 on: October 26, 2020, 11:15:08 AM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on October 26, 2020, 10:37:04 AM
Biden 51
Trump 40

Trump +14 district



That would be a what, 20pt shift?! Biden would surely win Texas if that replicated elsewhere. But I have to call BS on numbers so intense
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Gracile
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« Reply #10 on: October 26, 2020, 11:25:21 AM »
I'm bullish on Biden in TX, but this seems a bit much (granted this is the type of district one might expect big swings to Biden from 2016).
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #11 on: October 26, 2020, 11:37:07 AM »
Wow, the suburban collapse is real. Even if this poll is overestimating Ds by 10%, it's still terrible news for Trump
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
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« Reply #12 on: October 26, 2020, 11:46:10 AM »
These TX suburban congressional district polls that periodically keep dropping are nothing short of remarkable.

Shifts this large and this fast in voter preferences have happened before in US politics, but they are relatively uncommon.
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Devils30
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« Reply #13 on: October 26, 2020, 11:48:23 AM »
Quote from: Neither Holy Nor Roman 👁️ on October 26, 2020, 11:46:10 AM
These TX suburban congressional district polls that periodically keep dropping are nothing short of remarkable.

Shifts this large and this fast in voter preferences have happened before in US politics, but they are relatively uncommon.

Some of the polls in places like northern Iowa I dismissed last time but Trump really got a 30-40% shift in places. I would say its unlikely the shift here is that large of a number but it's worth watching at the least.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #14 on: October 26, 2020, 11:56:04 AM »
I don't necessarily buy this poll. If you deduct 5 points from the Biden lead, in regards to margin of error, you get Biden+6. And if you deduct 3 points from that you have Biden+3.
Even in that case, Trump's chances are slim in TX.
Not saying it's a terrible poll. It's an outlier. But even if it is, then it's very bad for Trump's chances in the state.
I'd be interested in more polls to see if there is a pattern.
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #15 on: October 26, 2020, 12:26:07 PM »
I really hope national Democrats are going all in on Lulu Seikaly.

Also, Collin is flipping this year. Calling it now.
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exopolitician
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« Reply #16 on: October 26, 2020, 12:32:23 PM »
This is my district. I'd be shocked if this was actually the outcome.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #17 on: October 26, 2020, 12:47:57 PM »
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VAR
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« Reply #18 on: November 06, 2020, 05:04:36 PM »
Probably the worst poll of 2020.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #19 on: November 06, 2020, 05:09:48 PM »

Wasserman kept insisting that this district would be the equivalent of OK-05. Not sure exactly how Biden did here, but Taylor won by over 12 points.
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Buzz
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« Reply #20 on: November 06, 2020, 06:10:44 PM »
Hopefully people will realize when I say D internals are all crap, they don’t think I’m being biased anymore.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #21 on: November 06, 2020, 06:15:03 PM »

The AL dem internal which has Jones winning was even worse.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #22 on: November 06, 2020, 06:15:39 PM »
Quote from: Buzz on November 06, 2020, 06:10:44 PM
Hopefully people will realize when I say D internals are all crap, they don’t think I’m being biased anymore.

DCCC polls were always the iffiest of the bunch
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lfromnj
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« Reply #23 on: November 06, 2020, 08:38:57 PM »
Eyeballing it, Trump won it by 1 as its basically Collin county minus the most red parts.
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Pericles
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« Reply #24 on: November 06, 2020, 09:03:40 PM »
Quote from: #proudtikitorchmarcher on November 06, 2020, 08:38:57 PM
Eyeballing it, Trump won it by 1 as its basically Collin county minus the most red parts.

That's still a pretty big swing if true.
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