Yahoo News/YouGov: Biden +12

[Rand]

[MillennialModerate]

National polling makes total sense...state polling on the other hand has been trash.

Have you seen the pollsters? There's a clear reason why.

Yeah but if Biden’s up 8 or more he’s not losing Georgia or Texas. No dice.

I’m guessing those states polling has yet to account for new transplants and other factors. Makes sense given the disaster that was Arizona 2018 senate polling.

Biden +8 nationally is, IMO, Clinton 2016 plus the Big Six swing states (FL, NC, AZ, MI, WI, PA) plus NE-02 plus maybe any one of the four "reach states" (GA, TX, OH, IA) but not more than one.

Biden +10 or so nationally is when we see 3 or even all 4 of the reach states all go Dem and Biden starts having a really good chance of getting ME-02 back.

ME02 will not be harder to win back then Georgia or Texas.

HELL, I think it might go Dem even in a Trump win!

Meanwhile Texas has about a 10% of going Dem, Georgia has a 1%

[Liberalrocks]

The 60 minutes bump is finally here !

[forsythvoter]

I actually think we could see some movement this week due to the record breaking COVID cases and perhaps this poll is the first indicator of that. A week where the headline is that COVID cases have hit a record and the stock market has tanked isn't a great position to be in for an incumbent in any election.

[Alben Barkley]

If you're an incumbent and down twelve a week before the election while 50+ million ballots have already been cast, you're pretty much done.

I’VE SEEN ENOUGH.

[MATTROSE94]

N*U*T ("Never Underestimate Trends)

[South Dakota Democrat]

National polling makes total sense...state polling on the other hand has been trash.

Have you seen the pollsters? There's a clear reason why.

Yeah but if Biden’s up 8 or more he’s not losing Georgia or Texas. No dice.

I’m guessing those states polling has yet to account for new transplants and other factors. Makes sense given the disaster that was Arizona 2018 senate polling.

Biden +8 nationally is, IMO, Clinton 2016 plus the Big Six swing states (FL, NC, AZ, MI, WI, PA) plus NE-02 plus maybe any one of the four "reach states" (GA, TX, OH, IA) but not more than one.

Biden +10 or so nationally is when we see 3 or even all 4 of the reach states all go Dem and Biden starts having a really good chance of getting ME-02 back.

ME02 will not be harder to win back then Georgia or Texas.

HELL, I think it might go Dem even in a Trump win!

Meanwhile Texas has about a 10% of going Dem, Georgia has a 1%

This post bears a minimal, if non-existent relationship to reality.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

YouGov polls

August 16/17:       Biden +10 nationally,  Trump +7 in Texas
September 18:        Biden +6 nationally,  Trump +2 in Texas
October 9/12:         Biden +8 nationally,  Trump  +5 in Texas
October 26:          Biden +12 nationally,   Trump +5 in Texas


I can't even.

[One Term Floridian]

September 18 YouGov polls:  Biden +6 nationally,  Trump +2 in Texas

October 26 YouGov polls:     Biden +12 nationally, Trump +5 in Texas

MuH 0iL bUmP

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Also, I posted this in the Early Vote thread...But the only way that national margin tightens to 6-7% will be from a combination of polling errors that only benefit Trump + a sh*tload of 'Shy Trump Voters' + Republicans truly "coming home" in the next week + insane Election Day turnout for the GOP

[Rand]

Also, I posted this in the Early Vote thread...But the only way that national margin tightens to 6-7% will be from a combination of polling errors that only benefit Trump + a sh*tload of 'Shy Trump Voters' + Republicans truly "coming home" in the next week + insane Election Day turnout for the GOP

I think what you meant to say was the Hunter Biden sex tape and Joe Biden "four more years of George Bush" gaffe. This is how Trump overcomes a nine-point polling deficit.

[Middle-aged Europe]

But muh oil comment

My olawakandi take:

The oil comment is what sealed the deal for Joe. People are not living in the 70s anymore. Oil comment showed the voters that Joe has that vision thing Bush the Elder was always talking about.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Joe Biden: kicking ass and taking trains!

(Yes, I ripped that off from the latest 'Saturday Night Live' episode. It's probably the most clever line they've come up with this season.)

[DINGO Joe]

If you're an incumbent and down twelve a week before the election while 50+ million ballots have already been cast, you're pretty much done.

Really it's 65-70 million