MI-03 - Strategic National: Scholten+8 (no party ID weight), tied with party ID weight
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  MI-03 - Strategic National: Scholten+8 (no party ID weight), tied with party ID weight
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Author Topic: MI-03 - Strategic National: Scholten+8 (no party ID weight), tied with party ID weight  (Read 313 times)
n1240
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« on: October 24, 2020, 12:12:47 PM »

https://mirsnews.com/images/Strategic_National_-_MI-3_Poll.pdf

No party ID weight (D+4)

Scholten 50
Meijer 42

Party ID weight (R+4)

Scholten 46
Meijer 46

10/15-17, 400 LV
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SenatorCouzens
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« Reply #1 on: October 24, 2020, 12:29:14 PM »

I have a hard time believing this. Meijer is a pretty good fit for this district and an above average candidate.

If anything, to my mind this lends more credence to the idea that something is quite off with the polls more broadly, now that we are long, long passed the golden age of polling.

We will find out in 10 days. Can't wait!
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #2 on: October 24, 2020, 12:57:51 PM »

For MIRS News
MoE: 4.9%

No party ID weight: undecided 8%
Party ID weight: undecided 7%
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Illiniwek
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« Reply #3 on: October 24, 2020, 10:32:32 PM »

This would be a massive coup.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #4 on: October 25, 2020, 05:26:04 PM »

I have a hard time believing this. Meijer is a pretty good fit for this district and an above average candidate.

If anything, to my mind this lends more credence to the idea that something is quite off with the polls more broadly, now that we are long, long passed the golden age of polling.

We will find out in 10 days. Can't wait!

The district level polling in 2016 caught the rural revolt against Dems while the national/state polls didn’t. Seems likely to me that this time they are catching a suburban revolt against the GOP better than the national/state polls. Far more likely that is the case than that the polls are all far off across the board, anyway. I’m not sure when the hell the “golden age of polling” was supposed to be exactly, but polls have never been more technically advanced than they are now. And rarely more accurate than they have been in most recent elections.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #5 on: October 25, 2020, 05:51:41 PM »

I have a hard time believing this. Meijer is a pretty good fit for this district and an above average candidate.

If anything, to my mind this lends more credence to the idea that something is quite off with the polls more broadly, now that we are long, long passed the golden age of polling.

We will find out in 10 days. Can't wait!

I’m not sure when the hell the “golden age of polling” was supposed to be exactly, but polls have never been more technically advanced than they are now. And rarely more accurate than they have been in most recent elections.

The golden age of polling was when most people answered their phones (especially their landlines). As far as I know, it's been difficult to fully compensate for this changing and response rates are getting worse.

Online polling can work but has its own issues and while the technologies have advanced, the costs have risen and the market has suffered as a result. Weighting by education constitutes an improvement but that's primarily because of the growth of an education divide, not because that sort of weighting was always necessary.
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