Trafalgar: Trump +3 in AZ/FL/MI, +50 in FL-15

[VAR]

Pre-rounding margins.

AZ (Oct 24, 472 LV)
Trump 50%
Biden 47%
Jorgensen 2%
Someone else 1%
Undecided 1%

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1yydRu7bsuh8gdVPHqYdwtoIqVohoVpaz/view

FL (Oct 24, 773 LV)
Trump 49%
Biden 47%
Jorgensen 2%
Someone else 2%
Undecided 1%

https://drive.google.com/file/d/15JN1pOklxLobpaH075CUTzSlrCN5Vyf4/view

MI (Oct 24, 723 KV)
Trump 49%
Biden 47%
Jorgensen 2%
Someone else 1%
Undecided 1%

https://drive.google.com/file/d/18MUIRqbzKFcDf2n3q1SmpEd-Kz3m7cXd/view

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They are lying about MI, MI is too R friendly

[Gass3268]

They have Trump winning the 18-24 year old vote in all three states. How does that make sense?

[Person Man]

They have Trump winning the 18-24 year old vote in all three states. How does that make sense?

Zoomers are nazis.

[Horus]

Either Trafalgar will become the gold standard and everyone else goes out of business, or these guys will have massive egg on their face.

[Landslide Lyndon]

They aren't even pretending anymore of being a legitimate polling company. They are just a Republican fantasy numbers generator.

[Person Man]

Either Trafalgar will become the gold standard and everyone else goes out of business, or these guys will have massive egg on their face.

Rasmussen did in 2018. It didn’t stop them.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They have Trump winning the 18-24 year old vote in all three states. How does that make sense?

When I went to drop off my ballot, youth vote isn't as energetic about voting as they were during height of George Floyd protest, Most people that vote are 30 plus

You saw massive protests when Covid outbreak came forward but now nothing

[Gass3268]

Should note, they were off by 4 in AZ in 2018.

[Person Man]

Since they just polled these places and got the same exact results, This doesn’t change the aggregate.

[VAR]

Congressional districts:

AZ-01: 51-43 Trump
AZ-02: 53-42 Trump
AZ-06: 52-42 Biden
FL-07: 55-42 Trump
FL-13: 66-26 Trump
FL-15: 73-22 Trump
FL-16: 57-41 Biden
FL-26: 63-26 Biden
FL-27: 51-47 Biden
MI-02: 52-43 Biden
MI-03: 58-37 Trump
MI-05: 50-49 Biden
MI-06: 49-45 Trump
MI-08: 55-44 Biden
MI-11: 48-46 Trump

[Ljube]

They were off by 1-2 points in MI in 2016.
Anyway, if they are off by 2 points everywhere, it is still going to be a very close race.

[Brittain33]

Nate Silver is cursing and yelling as these go into his averages.

[Dr. Frankenstein]

There’s a 24 point gap between Trafalgar and Strategic National in MI-03. What a joke.

Also, the numbers in MI seem simply made up:

MI-01 is Trump +40 from Trump +21 in 2016 and James +11 in 2018
MI-02 is Biden +9 from Trump +18 and James +12
MI-03 is Trump +22 from Trump +10 and James +4
MI-04 is Trump +17 from Trump +25 and James +16
MI-05 is Biden +1 from Clinton +4 and Stabenow +12
MI-06 is Trump +3 from Trump +8 and James +3
MI-07 is Trump +22 from Trump +17 and James +8
MI-08 is Trump +12  from Trump +7 and Stabenow +0
MI-09 is Trump +3 from Clinton +8 and Stabenow +19
MI-10 is Trump +7 from Trump +32 and James +18
MI-11 is Trump +1 from Trump +5 and Stabenow +3
MI-12 is Biden +11 from Clinton +25 and Stabenow +34
MI-13 is Biden +24 from Clinton +61 and Stabenow +62
MI-14 is Biden +40 from Clinton +61 and Stabenow +59

Here’s AZ as well:

AZ-01 is Trump +8 from Trump +1
AZ-02 is Trump +11 from Clinton +5
AZ-03 is Biden +33 from Clinton +29
AZ-04 is Trump +31 from Trump +40
AZ-05 is Trump +12 from Trump +21
AZ-06 is Biden +11 from Trump +10
AZ-07 is Biden +16 from Clinton +49
AZ-08 is Trump +20 from Trump +21
AZ-09 is Biden +26 from Clinton +17

[VAR]

Trump being up by 50 in FL-15 is the best, lol.

[jamestroll]

If these numbers end up being true I will bang my head against the wall and break all my windows!!

[ProgressiveModerate]

It’s clear these polls are pretty BS. Why do we always get a slew of the crappy polls over the weekend? They’re messing with my model!

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

A lot of ‘muh feelngs’ in this thread...

[Dr. Frankenstein]

Trump being up by 50 in FL-15 is the best, lol.

Yeah, I gave up on FL after I saw the breakdown for MI. There is no point. I think releasing the regional crosstabs was a mistake on their part.

[ProgressiveModerate]

A lot of ‘muh feelngs’ in this thread...

A lot of the district swings and Demographic breakdowns are crazy outliers compared to what we usually see

[WD]

A lot of ‘muh feelngs’ in this thread...

lol if you believe these numbers, you’re fooling yourself.

[n1240]

Nice of Trafalgar to finally show their crosstabs to further reveal what a clown show they are. Multiple polls where Trump is hovering around 30% black support, over 20% of both Democrats and Republicans crossing over in Michigan, and Trump winning 18-24 vote in all three states, Biden up 15 among independents in AZ yet down 32 in MI among independents. It's no wonder why they didn't release crosstabs before, these losers have no clue what they're doing!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We only have 53M voted, we still have 80M left to be counted

[Brittain33]

I swear that they only made up district polls because Nate Silver has been commenting on how valuable they are for avoiding herding tendencies common to state and national polls.

[jdk]

These clowns are beyond parody at this point