NY-24: Siena Tied
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 08:58:17 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 Senate & House Election Polls
  NY-24: Siena Tied
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: NY-24: Siena Tied  (Read 386 times)
S019
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,255
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -1.39

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 25, 2020, 12:43:12 AM »

https://www.syracuse.com/politics/cny/2020/10/john-katko-dana-balter-dead-even-in-race-for-congress-siena-college-syracusecom-poll.html


Balter: 45%
Katko (inc.): 45%

558 LV

10/20-10/22


Last poll was Balter+3 (45-42)


Seems to confirm pure tossup, and this could be one of the closest races in the nation
Logged
politicallefty
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,200
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.87, S: -9.22

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 25, 2020, 12:46:31 AM »

Incumbents don't generally win when they're at 45% and tied. I expect this to be Democratic gain.
Logged
VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,755
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 25, 2020, 06:42:18 AM »

Favorabilities:
Balter: 39/47 (-8, was -10)
Katko: 43/46 (-3, was -10)

https://files.constantcontact.com/9c83fb30501/3b58a2b0-5422-40a0-aea5-f5f7cdab2736.pdf
Logged
Roll Roons
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,983
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 25, 2020, 08:54:02 AM »

I think Katko holds on in the end (Biden winning the district by 19 seemed a bit much), but we probably won't know the outcome of this race for a while because New York is terrible at elections.
Logged
Gracile
gracile
Moderators
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,045


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 25, 2020, 12:39:17 PM »

Balter now having a higher favorability than Katko and Biden's margin (which I think is a bit overstated but still) makes me believe Balter has more upside.
Logged
Roll Roons
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,983
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 25, 2020, 12:43:51 PM »

Balter now having a higher favorability than Katko and Biden's margin (which I think is a bit overstated but still) makes me believe Balter has more upside.

What? The poll has her net favorability at minus 8 and his at minus 3. Plus his favorability has improved by 7 points since the previous poll.
Logged
Gracile
gracile
Moderators
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,045


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 25, 2020, 12:46:16 PM »

Balter now having a higher favorability than Katko and Biden's margin (which I think is a bit overstated but still) makes me believe Balter has more upside.

What? The poll has her net favorability at minus 8 and his at minus 3. Plus his favorability has improved by 7 points since the previous poll.

Sorry, I misread the favorability numbers. Still, it's not exactly great to be at -3 and 45% as an incumbent.
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,771


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 25, 2020, 01:29:34 PM »
« Edited: October 25, 2020, 01:33:52 PM by TiltsAreUnderrated »

MoE: 4.1%
Changes with September 28-29

The last poll had two versions - the Balter 45 - Katko 42 version and the one with Williams (WFP) also on the ballot. As he's now confirmed to be on the ballot, changes should be with the one that included Williams:

Balter 45% (+3)
Katko 45% (+5)
Williams (WFP) 5% (-1) - note that Williams tried to get off the ballot and has endorsed Balter
Someone else 1% (+1 from at 0% but with some voters)
Won't vote 1% (-1)
Undecided 4% (-6)
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.221 seconds with 13 queries.