TX - UT-Tyler: Biden +2/+3

[VAR]

Oct 13-20, 925 LV, MoE: 3.2%

Changes with Aug 28-Sept 2.

Biden 48% (+2)
Trump 45% (-3)
Jorgensen 2% (+1)
Hawkins 1% (n/c)
Undecided 5% (+1)

with leaners
Biden 49%
Trump 47%
Jorgensen 3%
Hawkins 1%
Still undecided 1%

RV: 46-44 Biden

SEN: 42-34 Cornyn
State house generic ballot: 50-49 D

Trump approval: 48/47 (+1)
Abbott approval: 54/37 (+17)
Patrick approval: 41/35 (+6)

Favorabilities:
Cruz: 47/38 (+9)
O’Rourke: 34/41 (-7)

https://www.uttyler.edu/politicalscience/files/oct2020-lv-codebook-dmn-uttyler-poll.pdf

Please keep in mind that UT-Tyler polls are prone to wild fluctuations. Still, Biden +3 isn’t that far off the average anyway.

[MillennialModerate]

I mean, I definetly don’t hate it

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cornyn still leads by 8

[Woody]

Likely R.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I'd be more interested to know what their early vote numbers show and if these numbers have influenced their LV model.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Split state TX, D's won Congressial districts while Beto lost in 2018, HEGAR doesn't have name recognition like Beto or Joaquin Castro whom would have won

[Person Man]

Likely R.

...ok

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Likely R.

...ok

In 2016, but in 2018, D's won 2 Congressial districts

[Gass3268]

Beto never led a single poll in 2018.

[Niemeyerite]

*post SirWoodbury meme here*

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

*post SirWoodbury meme here*

You really think if SN, Sir Woodbury and Trump Toupee losing bigley, they will be back, they already have disappeared

[Zache]

I want to believe but I don't want to believe...

[MillennialModerate]

B/C rating with a slight GOP bias.

I feel good about the poll but in my gut I feel like I have a hard time believing it

[Gass3268]

Did they poll in 2016 or 2018?

They has Cruz winning by 4.

[VAR]

I'd be more interested to know what their early vote numbers show and if these numbers have influenced their LV model.

Voted by absentee ballot: 11% (64-36 Biden)
Voted in-person, early: 33% (54-42 Biden)
Already voted: 44% (57-41 Biden)
-
Voting in-person, early: 38%
Voting in-person, Election Day: 13%
Voting by absentee ballot: 5%
Haven’t voted: 56% (48-39 Trump)

Biden leads 46-44 among registered voters.

[Gass3268]

I'd be more interested to know what their early vote numbers show and if these numbers have influenced their LV model.

Voted by absentee ballot: 11% (64-36 Biden)
Voted in-person, early: 33% (54-42 Biden)
Already voted: 44% (57-41 Biden)
-
Voting in-person, early: 38%
Voting in-person, Election Day: 13%
Voting by absentee ballot: 5%
Haven’t voted: 56% (48-39 Trump)

Biden leads 46-44 among registered voters.

If they think 56% hasn’t voted yet, turnout is going to be more insane than I thought possible.

[Yank2133]

That 48-39 lead for Trump on Election Day voting isn’t going to cut it. He has to do better then that if he wants to win Texas.

[Brittain33]

If they think 56% hasn’t voted yet, turnout is going to be more insane than I thought possible.

This poll was conducted October 13-20, so it's not as crazy as it would be if it ended on Friday, but I haven't done the math.

[Figueira]

A large national swing towards Biden combined with a Democratic trend in Texas would be enough to produce this result. It's just one poll but there's nothing unbelievable about it.

[wbrocks67]

This pollster had a good record in 2018, and even overestimated Cruz a bit at that, so the fact that Biden is up 2-3 in their **LV** models is pretty insane.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Nice to see Biden up in TX polls this close ton the election, though I wish they pushed undeicdes in the Senate race

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

The Senate race is a pure tossup if Biden is up 2-3. State House seems poised to flip too.

Crysta Castañeda (D) is the only one advertising for RRC, and I bet she’d pull it out if Biden is up this much.

[Tender Branson]

I can already smell the defeat of Trump there ...

[libertpaulian]

Beto O'Rourke's downfall is probably the biggest political story of the Trump Era.

[Lief 🗽]

Dare I say... Tilt D?