CBS: FL: Biden +2, GA: Tied, NC: Biden +4

[GeneralMacArthur]

Good numbers for Biden, and he's already got most of them in the bank.

[kireev]

Biden is doing better with whites in NC than in FL...

[ExSky]

All are realistic, but I think this year polls are going to be underestimating Biden the most in places like GA.

I personally think he’s got a better shot at Georgia than NC but polling says the opposite. We will see

[forsythvoter]

These are actually pretty crazy numbers for the Dems among white college educated voters in GA. This group used to vote 75-25 R not that long ago. Biden getting 41% would mean pretty huge swings in the suburban doughnut counties all around Atlanta.

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Florida President by YouGov on 2020-10-23

Summary: D: 50%, R: 48%, U: 0%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Georgia President by YouGov on 2020-10-23

Summary: D: 49%, R: 49%, U: 0%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: North Carolina President by YouGov on 2020-10-23

Summary: D: 51%, R: 47%, U: 0%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[MillennialModerate]

Read em' and weep doomers

Give me a break.

“Doomers” don’t want Trump to win. We want Biden to win just as much if not more then you.

We just don’t think with our hearts - we think with our brains.

These polls are alright but not a big enough gap that things can’t change based on turnout or October surprises

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Biden is doing better with whites in NC than in FL...

Yeah, cause its Florida

[ProudModerate2]

I wouldn't doubt if the FL and NC numbers are exactly what happens.

[Hammy]

Finally something I can run a comparison with.

FL 10/21 was D 46-43, final result was ~R 48-47, so both over-performed to varying degrees. Trump has zero room for Biden to over-perform here and still be able to win so I'd take this as somewhere between a tie and Biden 51-49.

GA 11/5 (the last most recent was in August) was R 49-43. Both over-performed again, but as has been the case in Georgia, it was Hillary's vote that was more heavily under-estimated--the final result was 50-45 was the final result. Similar error to 2016 puts this, similar to Florida, at tie to 51-49.

NC 10/28 was D 48-43. Dems were actually over-estimated here as seems to have been the case with most pollsters in the final weeks. I would attribute this more to Hillary's collapse rather than shy Trump effect, but factoring in all possibilities (as there were no races in 2018 to compare with) the likely outcome from this poll could range from the D 51-47 the poll shows, to R 50-49, accounting for 2016's error. Similar to Texas, it seems like it has a larger potential range than FL/GA.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

October 20-23

FL
1228 likely voters
MoE: 3.6%
Changes with September 15-18

Biden 50% (+2)
Trump 48% (+2)
Other third party 2% (+1)
Not sure 0% (-5)

GA
1090 likely voters
MoE: 3.4%
Changes with September 22-25

Biden 49% (+3)
Trump 49% (+2)
Other third party 2% (n/c)
Not sure 0% (-5)

NC
1022 likely voters
MoE: 4.1%
Changes with September 22-25

Biden 51% (+3)
Trump 47% (+1)
Other third party 2% (n/c)
Not sure 0% (-4)

Edit: changed to results with leaners.

[Hammy]

Trump appears ****ed in NC.  Ughhhhhh Just gotta hope Yougov misses by 6 here like in 2016 I guess.

Yeah, just by winning MI+NC (and assuming a hold of all Clinton 2016 states), all Biden would need to do is win one of AZ, FL, PA or WI and he wins.  In that scenario, Trump would need to sweep all four.

I'm leaving NC at a pure toss-up, but if Trump loses here, he's finished.  

I think at this point I'm comfortable moving GA/NC to tossup as well. unless SurveyUSA (who was the most accurate in 2016 in NC) comes out with vastly different numbers.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Read em' and weep doomers

Give me a break.

“Doomers” don’t want Trump to win. We want Biden to win just as much if not more then you.

We just don’t think with our hearts - we think with our brains.

These polls are alright but not a big enough gap that things can’t change based on turnout or October surprises

Um, yeah, not true...ignoring evidence and going based on what you feel is what y'all are doing.

[Alben Barkley]

Read em' and weep doomers

Give me a break.

“Doomers” don’t want Trump to win. We want Biden to win just as much if not more then you.

We just don’t think with our hearts - we think with our brains.

These polls are alright but not a big enough gap that things can’t change based on turnout or October surprises

The complete opposite is true. If you were thinking with your brain (assuming your brain is decently rational, anyway), you would be able to see that Biden is objectively in a better position than any presidential candidate in many years. This is not a question of opinion or subjectivity. It is cold hard fact based on the available data. That’s all someone “thinking with their brain” should be concerned about. Your PTSD from 2016 or gut feeling that Trump is gonna win anyway is not relevant. Prioritizing them over the facts and logic is thinking with your heart or gut or emotions — whatever you wanna call it — not your brain.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This is cherry picking made into an art form:

https://twitter.com/JonLemire/status/1320461444580691969

[GeorgiaModerate]

Other great data for Biden in FL the EV polling has Biden winning those who already voted early 61-37 while ED is 59/40 in Trump’s favor and NC has similar data

Where is Lurker? Is he... safe? Is he... all right?

Maybe he's lurking.

[Hammy]

This is cherry picking made into an art form:

https://twitter.com/JonLemire/status/1320461444580691969

But how can this be true if the polls showing him behind in the top-line numbers are fake!

[Progressive Pessimist]

Good numbers, even for Florida. Sure, the margins are getting closer, as expected in a state that could be among the closest (as usual) but it's good to see Biden at 50%.

North Carolina has especially been blowing my mind lately with how much it seems to have moved to Biden, with him now being at or above 50% too. I am especially confounded at the possibility of the state voting to Florida's left. I more than welcome it though. Maybe Hurricane Matthew really did affect things more than we realize back in 2016. If Florida falters yet North Carolina somehow pulls through in flipping, I would still be happy since that insures a Biden win too and I would get to keep hating the Sunshine State without any remorse!