If FDR was healthy and wanted to be president as long as possible...

[Agonized-Statism]

...How many more terms could he have won? Assume the post-1945 world is more or less the same (post-war prosperity, Cold War, Red China, Korean War, Leave It to Beaver, etc.). Note that Roosevelt's own New Deal Coalition already had trouble between the Southern segregationists and the Northern liberals when he was gone in 1948, and that those differences became irreconcilable in 1968.

[Alben Barkley]

He would have won again in 1948, but Eisenhower probably finally takes him down in 1952, 20 years after he was first elected.

I don’t think he would have run for even one more term though, and with Ike as a potential opponent, definitely would have preferred to step down over risk defeat.

[Fuzzy Bear]

If the times weren't so ominous in 1940 FDR would likely have not run for a third term.  He likely would have been strongly discouraged from doing so.

[dw93]

I think he steps down by 48 (he was supposedly considering not running in 1940) and a Deweyesque Republican (or Dewey himself) defeat Truman or someone else FDR may choose as a handpicked successor.

[Agonized-Statism]

Reminder to everyone that FDR wants to be president for as long as possible in this hypothetical. He's a healthy man without polio or heart problems, and he doesn't plan to retire and become the first Secretary-General of the UN after the war like he did in our world.

[Alben Barkley]

Reminder to everyone that FDR wants to be president for as long as possible in this hypothetical. He's a healthy man without polio or heart problems, and he doesn't plan to retire and become the first Secretary-General of the UN after the war like he did in our world.

Well in that case, as I said he likely goes down to Eisenhower in ‘52. The Republicans would have even more aggressively recruited Ike, and while he did admire FDR he also likely would think five terms is more than enough for any president so he would take him on. It would be closer than reality, especially if FDR is fighting with all his might to hold on (still a great politician), but ultimately I think Ike wins out. If only because people would be weary after five terms of not only the same party, but the same president, and finally the Republicans would be putting up someone who can match up to his charisma, popularity, and WW2 hero status.

Here is the most narrow Eisenhower winning map I can imagine:

That would be Eisenhower 267-264, just 1 more EV than he needs for a majority. Tipping point state here is likely Virginia, Minnesota, or Illinois.

Actually if you flip FL with MN, that would be exactly 266 for Ike and also possible.

I suppose it’s possible that in 1948, instead of Dewey the GOP nominates MacArthur or even Eisenhower four years earlier (though I think it’s less likely he would want it or accept it then). But I think FDR would have still won that year. Especially against MacArthur, who was a pretty polarizing figure.

[NewYorkExpress]

I might be the only person who thinks FDR loses his rematch to Dewey in 1948 (and that assumes Dewey is even the Republican nominee.)

Dewey (and pretty much every other Republican) would torch FDR for naivety as the Cold War builds, and that probably costs him the election.

[Alben Barkley]

I might be the only person who thinks FDR loses his rematch to Dewey in 1948 (and that assumes Dewey is even the Republican nominee.)

Dewey (and pretty much every other Republican) would torch FDR for naivety as the Cold War builds, and that probably costs him the election.

I do not think FDR was naive about the Soviets or would have handled the early stages of the Cold War much differently from Truman. He dumped Wallace for Truman for a reason, after all.

Plus, Truman beat Dewey mainly because many rural and working class voters were not ready to vote for a Republican yet in 1948, at least one as bland and uninspiring as Dewey. It took someone like Eisenhower to shake that up. Had he run as a Democrat instead (he nearly did), the GOP might have faced outright extinction.

Add on top of that the fact that FDR would have been campaigning off his great victory in WW2 and transformation of the US into a global superpower, and I find it really hard to see Dewey beating him in a rematch. Or some other random Republican.

[NewYorkExpress]

I might be the only person who thinks FDR loses his rematch to Dewey in 1948 (and that assumes Dewey is even the Republican nominee.)

Dewey (and pretty much every other Republican) would torch FDR for naivety as the Cold War builds, and that probably costs him the election.

I do not think FDR was naive about the Soviets or would have handled the early stages of the Cold War much differently from Truman. He dumped Wallace for Truman for a reason, after all.

He dumped Wallace because he was dying and wanted someone who could take over and not collaborate with the Soviets.

If he was healthy, as this scenario presupposes, I think he keeps Wallace in 1944, but probably not in 1948.

[Alben Barkley]

I might be the only person who thinks FDR loses his rematch to Dewey in 1948 (and that assumes Dewey is even the Republican nominee.)

Dewey (and pretty much every other Republican) would torch FDR for naivety as the Cold War builds, and that probably costs him the election.

I do not think FDR was naive about the Soviets or would have handled the early stages of the Cold War much differently from Truman. He dumped Wallace for Truman for a reason, after all.

He dumped Wallace because he was dying and wanted someone who could take over and not collaborate with the Soviets.

If he was healthy, as this scenario presupposes, I think he keeps Wallace in 1944, but probably not in 1948.

The fact that he had that concern is proof he was not naive about the Soviets is my point. And he had post-war plans, he didn’t KNOW he wasn’t going to survive the term.

[Motorcity]

I don't think Eisenhower would run against  FDR

I say Nixon defeats FDR in 1960

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

I might be the only person who thinks FDR loses his rematch to Dewey in 1948 (and that assumes Dewey is even the Republican nominee.)

Dewey (and pretty much every other Republican) would torch FDR for naivety as the Cold War builds, and that probably costs him the election.

I do not think FDR was naive about the Soviets or would have handled the early stages of the Cold War much differently from Truman. He dumped Wallace for Truman for a reason, after all.

He dumped Wallace because he was dying and wanted someone who could take over and not collaborate with the Soviets.

If he was healthy, as this scenario presupposes, I think he keeps Wallace in 1944, but probably not in 1948.

The fact that he had that concern is proof he was not naive about the Soviets is my point. And he had post-war plans, he didn’t KNOW he wasn’t going to survive the term.

So far as I know from what Gaddis has written, Roosevelt was indeed acutely aware of the looming issue of US-Soviet rivalry.

[Agonized-Statism]

Bump. POD is Roosevelt avoiding polio and becoming a total health nut after his assassination attempt in 1933, then deciding to have a hand in building the post-war world as US President rather than UN Secretary-General. Henry Wallace is kept on the ticket for 1944, but most definitely dumped in the anti-communist atmosphere of 1948.

1948

President Franklin Roosevelt (D-NY) / Fmr. Governor Henry Schricker (D-IN) ✔
Governor Thomas Dewey (R-NY) / Governor Earl Warren (R-CA)

The race of Roosevelt's life, but Dewey remains complacent, believing "incumbency fatigue" will take care of the election for him.

1952

President Franklin Roosevelt (D-NY) / Vice President Henry Schricker (D-IN) ✔
Senator Robert Taft (R-OH) / Fmr. General Douglas MacArthur (R-NY)

Republicans overplay their hand.

1956

President Franklin Roosevelt (D-NY) / Senator John Kennedy (D-MA)
Senator Richard Nixon (R-CA) / Senator Henry Lodge (R-MA) ✔
Senator Strom Thurmond (SR-SC) / Senator Harry Byrd (SR-VA)

The New Deal Coalition finally implodes over civil rights and Republicans run a candidate who appeals to both the Eastern Establishment and the conservatives. Roosevelt dumps Schricker for someone fresher- someone who was 15 when he first took office.

[Skill and Chance]

I honestly think he would lose in 1948 if he ran.  Massive backlash against incumbent parties in the 1st peacetime election after WWII was common, and the "America can't have a king" arguments would really heat up once the war was over.

I don't think it would come to the point of FDR losing.  More likely, though, he would just celebrate the victory in WWII and retire, endorsing a non-Wallace VP.  If not, I think he would be pressured into retirement after the 1946 midterm.  Enough Democrats would privately indicate they are willing to join Republicans in voting for a 22nd Amendment that doesn't exempt him.

[Alben Barkley]

Bump. POD is Roosevelt avoiding polio and becoming a total health nut after his assassination attempt in 1933, then deciding to have a hand in building the post-war world as US President rather than UN Secretary-General. Henry Wallace is kept on the ticket for 1944, but most definitely dumped in the anti-communist atmosphere of 1948.

1948

President Franklin Roosevelt (D-NY) / Fmr. Governor Henry Schricker (D-IN) ✔
Governor Thomas Dewey (R-NY) / Governor Earl Warren (R-CA)

The race of Roosevelt's life, but Dewey remains complacent, believing "incumbency fatigue" will take care of the election for him.

1952

President Franklin Roosevelt (D-NY) / Vice President Henry Schricker (D-IN) ✔
Senator Robert Taft (R-OH) / Fmr. General Douglas MacArthur (R-NY)

Republicans overplay their hand.

1956

President Franklin Roosevelt (D-NY) / Senator John Kennedy (D-MA)
Senator Richard Nixon (R-CA) / Senator Henry Lodge (R-MA) ✔
Senator Strom Thurmond (SR-SC) / Senator Harry Byrd (SR-VA)

The New Deal Coalition finally implodes over civil rights and Republicans run a candidate who appeals to both the Eastern Establishment and the conservatives. Roosevelt dumps Schricker for someone fresher- someone who was 15 when he first took office.

Are you just assuming Ike doesn't run if FDR runs? Maybe possible but I think if he does, FDR falls in 1948 or 1952.