PA - Gravis: Biden +7

[VAR]

Oct 23, 602 LV, MoE: 4%

Biden 51%
Trump 44%
Uncertain 5%

Trump approval: 48/49 (-1)
Biden fav: 58/39 (+19)

https://gravismarketing.com/2020-pa-poll-results/

[Sestak]

The Gold Standard has spoken!

Safe Biden.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Been a while since we've seen a public Gravis poll.  I imagine they've been doing a lot of private polls.

[TheLaRocca]

Biden at 51...but Trump at 48 approvals.

Makes sense. I expect PA to be 51-48 Biden.

[Person Man]

People really like Biden here.

[TheLaRocca]

People really like Biden here.

MI/PA/WI won't vote any differently really.

Deal with it.

[Horus]

That's quite the approval for Biden. Who are the people that like both candidates? Can't say I've met any.

[Gass3268]

That's quite the approval for Biden. Who are the people that like both candidates? Can't say I've met any.

If any state where that might be possible, it could be PA and obviously DE.

Little worried about herding in some of these polls.

[Lief 🗽]

Gravis's poll around this time 4 years ago was Clinton +1 (46-45).

BUT it looks like they herded a week later, so their final election eve poll was Clinton +6 (46-40).

[Alben Barkley]

People really like Biden here.

MI/PA/WI won't vote any differently really.

Deal with it.

Yes, they will all vote by wide margins for Biden.

[TheLaRocca]

That's quite the approval for Biden. Who are the people that like both candidates? Can't say I've met any.

If any state where that might be possible, it could be PA and obviously DE.

Little worried about herding in some of these polls.

Yeah like we discussed before this is when they all start saying the same thing.

It happened in 2008.

It happened in 2016 (everything started shifting in the last 2 months (the Hollywood tape was the exception and that was for like a week) to +3 to +5 Clinton).

Happened in 2018.

2012 IIRC polls herded to a narrow Obama lead.

They all get the general consensus of where the race is and they all match that. These people DO NOT want to be wrong.

Regardless Biden has been > 50 IN MI/WI/PA for a long time.

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Gravis Marketing on 2020-10-23

Summary: D: 51%, R: 44%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Terry the Fat Shark]

People really like Biden here.

MI/PA/WI won't vote any differently really.

Deal with it.

You're right, it'll be like Biden +11 in MI, Biden +9 in PA, Biden +8 in WI

[TheLaRocca]

Gravis's poll around this time 4 years ago was Clinton +1 (46-45).

BUT it looks like they herded a week later, so their final election eve poll was Clinton +6 (46-40).

That's not a bad poll dude. Clinton got 47%.

[TheLaRocca]

People really like Biden here.

MI/PA/WI won't vote any differently really.

Deal with it.

You're right, it'll be like Biden +11 in MI, Biden +9 in PA, Biden +8 in WI

Biden is not beating Obama 08 in PA...

Obama 08 > Biden everywhere in the state but the Philly Suburbs.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I've said it before and I'll say it again: This state is not going to make the same mistake twice.

[TheLaRocca]

I've said it before and I'll say it again: This state is not going to make the same mistake twice.

I think 51-47 is the final margin...

Thoughts? MI/WI is about the same.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

People really like Biden here.

MI/PA/WI won't vote any differently really.

Deal with it.

You're right, it'll be like Biden +11 in MI, Biden +9 in PA, Biden +8 in WI

Biden is not beating Obama 08 in PA...

Obama 08 > Biden everywhere in the state but the Philly Suburbs.

Obama won PA by 10 in 2008.

[Rand]

F R A C K I N ‘   J O E

[Gass3268]

They have it as 40% already voted. Good to see.

[TheLaRocca]

People really like Biden here.

MI/PA/WI won't vote any differently really.

Deal with it.

You're right, it'll be like Biden +11 in MI, Biden +9 in PA, Biden +8 in WI

Biden is not beating Obama 08 in PA...

Obama 08 > Biden everywhere in the state but the Philly Suburbs.

Obama won PA by 10 in 2008.

Okay let's play your game

Alleghany: Swing Biden
Philadelphia: Slight swing Trump
Philly Suburbs: hard Biden swing
rural PA: dead cat bounce Biden
Lackawanna and Luzrene: Swing Biden
Erie: Swing Biden
South-western PA: this is the area Trump could do better in...it's not due to Clinton-Trump voters but turnout

so the rest of the state is basically the same besides Philly/SW were Trump can gain a bit and Philly Suburbs + Lackawanna/Luzerne/Erie...

none of that is a +8 Win.

This seems like a 2012 repeat of PA. just more suburban.

[KaiserDave]

I project Trump wins the election because reasons

[Terry the Fat Shark]

People really like Biden here.

MI/PA/WI won't vote any differently really.

Deal with it.

You're right, it'll be like Biden +11 in MI, Biden +9 in PA, Biden +8 in WI

Biden is not beating Obama 08 in PA...

Obama 08 > Biden everywhere in the state but the Philly Suburbs.

Obama won PA by 10 in 2008.

Okay let's play your game

Alleghany: Swing Biden
Philadelphia: Slight swing Trump
Philly Suburbs: hard Biden swing
rural PA: dead cat bounce Biden
Lackawanna and Luzrene: Swing Biden
Erie: Swing Biden
South-western PA: this is the area Trump could do better in...it's not due to Clinton-Trump voters but turnout

so the rest of the state is basically the same besides Philly/SW were Trump can gain a bit and Philly Suburbs + Lackawanna/Luzerne/Erie...

none of that is a +8 Win.

This seems like a 2012 repeat of PA. just more suburban.

Honestly I think the entire state will swing towards Biden

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe D, haven't heard from Trump  Toupee since Trump has gone backwards in PA

Trump supporters never comeback like SN, to backup their wrong predicting. At least D's stay when we are wrong. I wonder is Sir Woodbury own up to his incorrect predicting

[kireev]

Trump +5 in 2016 sample.