MI-03 - Strategic National: Scholten+8 (no party ID weight), tied with party ID weight
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 11:35:48 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 Senate & House Election Polls
  MI-03 - Strategic National: Scholten+8 (no party ID weight), tied with party ID weight
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: MI-03 - Strategic National: Scholten+8 (no party ID weight), tied with party ID weight  (Read 362 times)
n1240
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,207


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 24, 2020, 12:12:47 PM »

https://mirsnews.com/images/Strategic_National_-_MI-3_Poll.pdf

No party ID weight (D+4)

Scholten 50
Meijer 42

Party ID weight (R+4)

Scholten 46
Meijer 46

10/15-17, 400 LV
Logged
SenatorCouzens
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 267
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 24, 2020, 12:29:14 PM »

I have a hard time believing this. Meijer is a pretty good fit for this district and an above average candidate.

If anything, to my mind this lends more credence to the idea that something is quite off with the polls more broadly, now that we are long, long passed the golden age of polling.

We will find out in 10 days. Can't wait!
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,771


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 24, 2020, 12:57:51 PM »

For MIRS News
MoE: 4.9%

No party ID weight: undecided 8%
Party ID weight: undecided 7%
Logged
Illiniwek
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,865
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 24, 2020, 10:32:32 PM »

This would be a massive coup.
Logged
Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,282
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 25, 2020, 05:26:04 PM »

I have a hard time believing this. Meijer is a pretty good fit for this district and an above average candidate.

If anything, to my mind this lends more credence to the idea that something is quite off with the polls more broadly, now that we are long, long passed the golden age of polling.

We will find out in 10 days. Can't wait!

The district level polling in 2016 caught the rural revolt against Dems while the national/state polls didn’t. Seems likely to me that this time they are catching a suburban revolt against the GOP better than the national/state polls. Far more likely that is the case than that the polls are all far off across the board, anyway. I’m not sure when the hell the “golden age of polling” was supposed to be exactly, but polls have never been more technically advanced than they are now. And rarely more accurate than they have been in most recent elections.
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,771


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 25, 2020, 05:51:41 PM »

I have a hard time believing this. Meijer is a pretty good fit for this district and an above average candidate.

If anything, to my mind this lends more credence to the idea that something is quite off with the polls more broadly, now that we are long, long passed the golden age of polling.

We will find out in 10 days. Can't wait!

I’m not sure when the hell the “golden age of polling” was supposed to be exactly, but polls have never been more technically advanced than they are now. And rarely more accurate than they have been in most recent elections.

The golden age of polling was when most people answered their phones (especially their landlines). As far as I know, it's been difficult to fully compensate for this changing and response rates are getting worse.

Online polling can work but has its own issues and while the technologies have advanced, the costs have risen and the market has suffered as a result. Weighting by education constitutes an improvement but that's primarily because of the growth of an education divide, not because that sort of weighting was always necessary.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.023 seconds with 14 queries.