Black Philadelphia voters - HIT Strategies: Trump wins 11% of Black men, 3% of Black women
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  Black Philadelphia voters - HIT Strategies: Trump wins 11% of Black men, 3% of Black women
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Author Topic: Black Philadelphia voters - HIT Strategies: Trump wins 11% of Black men, 3% of Black women  (Read 1320 times)
VAR
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« on: October 23, 2020, 03:14:44 PM »

“Earlier this month”, 540 voters

Quote
14 percent of Black men under 50 would vote for President Trump if they voted today

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...11 percent of Black men would vote for Trump, versus 3 percent of Black women.

https://www.phillytrib.com/news/local_news/power-poll-shows-interesting-findings/article_dae261b1-2b5b-5b1e-93ad-06e7015f6786.html#/questions
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It’s so Joever
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« Reply #1 on: October 23, 2020, 03:17:49 PM »

It’s very interesting, but ultimately unsurprising that younger black men are more likely to vote Republican (albeit not by much) than their older peers.

I really do think the education and gender gaps will become the next big divides, especially as the Millennials and Gen Zers become more influential as they get older.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #2 on: October 23, 2020, 03:18:42 PM »

So put together Trump probably gets like 5% or less, given black women vote at higher rates.
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TheLaRocca
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« Reply #3 on: October 23, 2020, 03:22:59 PM »

So put together Trump probably gets like 5% or less, given black women vote at higher rates.

And the black vote is overwhelmingly older then pollsters think. That’s why Bernie was supposed to be leading with blacks and getting 25% of them in SC but he landed on 14%.

Trump def has gained with black men 18-30 but that’s really the only group (black women outgote black men 70-30) so yeah I’m guessing trump does 2% roughly better in black areas of Philly.

Most of it’s a dead cat bounce and due to the fact democrats simply have reached a limit
With blacks. But in the future it could be a problem for the democrats.
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Bootes Void
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« Reply #4 on: October 23, 2020, 03:23:43 PM »

this is only like 7% to 8% or so
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TheLaRocca
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« Reply #5 on: October 23, 2020, 03:26:06 PM »


Less then that considering black women out vote Black men heavily and the black electorate skews older then the white electorate (see Biden’s complete dominance over Bernie).

But that’s still an improvement from 2016. Trump got 1-2% in black urban districts this time I expect 3-4%.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #6 on: October 23, 2020, 03:27:11 PM »


Less then that considering black women out vote Black men heavily and the black electorate skews older then the white electorate (see Biden’s complete dominance over Bernie).

But that’s still an improvement from 2016. Trump got 1-2% in black urban districts this time I expect 3-4%.

% improvement, but I expect black turnout to be better in general then 2016.
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TheLaRocca
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« Reply #7 on: October 23, 2020, 03:27:59 PM »


Less then that considering black women out vote Black men heavily and the black electorate skews older then the white electorate (see Biden’s complete dominance over Bernie).

But that’s still an improvement from 2016. Trump got 1-2% in black urban districts this time I expect 3-4%.

% improvement, but I expect black turnout to be better in general then 2016.

Yeah exacley. Black support for the GOP is much lower then exit polls say.
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Hammy
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« Reply #8 on: October 23, 2020, 03:39:40 PM »

Don't Republicans always poll significantly better with black men than black women? The gender gap seems to span all demographics.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #9 on: October 23, 2020, 03:55:45 PM »

That sounds about right.

But Biden's gains with white women will completely usurp Trump's slight gains with non-white men.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #10 on: October 23, 2020, 03:59:01 PM »

Don't Republicans always poll significantly better with black men than black women? The gender gap seems to span all demographics.

That is correct.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #11 on: October 23, 2020, 04:12:42 PM »

Don't Republicans always poll significantly better with black men than black women? The gender gap seems to span all demographics.

That is correct.

Same thing typically happens with Hispanics, but not to the same extent.
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Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
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« Reply #12 on: October 23, 2020, 05:40:25 PM »

That's interesting. I expect his gains with black voters to be disproportionately Southern and rural but this would probably be a slight gain. There are a number of black Philadelphia precincts where Romney got zero votes.
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ηєω ƒяσηтιєя
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« Reply #13 on: October 23, 2020, 06:07:58 PM »

That's interesting. I expect his gains with black voters to be disproportionately Southern and rural but this would probably be a slight gain. There are a number of black Philadelphia precincts where Romney got zero votes.
Trump in 2016 got 13% of Black male vote nationally and 4% of the Black female vote nationally.


I don't know how the vote broke down in Philadelphia in 2016.
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AMB1996
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« Reply #14 on: October 23, 2020, 06:26:50 PM »

That's interesting. I expect his gains with black voters to be disproportionately Southern and rural but this would probably be a slight gain. There are a number of black Philadelphia precincts where Romney got zero votes.
Trump in 2016 got 13% of Black male vote nationally and 4% of the Black female vote nationally.

I don't know how the vote broke down in Philadelphia in 2016.

I'm presuming it was significantly lower than the national averages based on what I know about Philadelphia.
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TheLaRocca
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« Reply #15 on: October 23, 2020, 06:55:14 PM »

That's interesting. I expect his gains with black voters to be disproportionately Southern and rural but this would probably be a slight gain. There are a number of black Philadelphia precincts where Romney got zero votes.
Trump in 2016 got 13% of Black male vote nationally and 4% of the Black female vote nationally.


I don't know how the vote broke down in Philadelphia in 2016.

Based on precinct results he got 4-5% of the black vote. I’m guessing this time he gets 6 or 7.
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Horus
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« Reply #16 on: October 24, 2020, 01:29:57 AM »

That's interesting. I expect his gains with black voters to be disproportionately Southern and rural but this would probably be a slight gain. There are a number of black Philadelphia precincts where Romney got zero votes.
Trump in 2016 got 13% of Black male vote nationally and 4% of the Black female vote nationally.

I don't know how the vote broke down in Philadelphia in 2016.

I'm presuming it was significantly lower than the national averages based on what I know about Philadelphia.

Likely so. But I'm expecting Trump to do worse among suburban black men this time (think Michael Steele) and better among urban and rural black men.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #17 on: October 24, 2020, 08:24:07 AM »

It is very interesting that Joe Biden according to numerous polls now might end up doing worse than Clinton with hispanics and no better than Clinton with black voters. So more or less the entire shift towards Biden should be coming from white voters. I'm a bit sceptical, honestly.
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GeneralMacArthur
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« Reply #18 on: October 24, 2020, 12:37:56 PM »

It is very interesting that Joe Biden according to numerous polls now might end up doing worse than Clinton with hispanics and no better than Clinton with black voters. So more or less the entire shift towards Biden should be coming from white voters. I'm a bit sceptical, honestly.

Trump won 13% of black men in 2016, and 33% of latino men.
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15 Down, 35 To Go
ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #19 on: October 24, 2020, 06:07:25 PM »

That's interesting. I expect his gains with black voters to be disproportionately Southern and rural but this would probably be a slight gain. There are a number of black Philadelphia precincts where Romney got zero votes.
Trump in 2016 got 13% of Black male vote nationally and 4% of the Black female vote nationally.


I don't know how the vote broke down in Philadelphia in 2016.

Based on precinct results he got 4-5% of the black vote. I’m guessing this time he gets 6 or 7.

I buy the exit polls because it seems quite plausible that black people in majority white communities vote differently than those in majority black communities do.
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TheLaRocca
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« Reply #20 on: October 24, 2020, 06:10:17 PM »

That's interesting. I expect his gains with black voters to be disproportionately Southern and rural but this would probably be a slight gain. There are a number of black Philadelphia precincts where Romney got zero votes.
Trump in 2016 got 13% of Black male vote nationally and 4% of the Black female vote nationally.


I don't know how the vote broke down in Philadelphia in 2016.

Based on precinct results he got 4-5% of the black vote. I’m guessing this time he gets 6 or 7.

I buy the exit polls because it seems quite plausible that black people in majority white communities vote differently than those in majority black communities do.

majority white communities (in the south) the dem vote is correlated with black support.
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AMB1996
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« Reply #21 on: October 24, 2020, 08:09:12 PM »

That's interesting. I expect his gains with black voters to be disproportionately Southern and rural but this would probably be a slight gain. There are a number of black Philadelphia precincts where Romney got zero votes.
Trump in 2016 got 13% of Black male vote nationally and 4% of the Black female vote nationally.

I don't know how the vote broke down in Philadelphia in 2016.

I'm presuming it was significantly lower than the national averages based on what I know about Philadelphia.

Likely so. But I'm expecting Trump to do worse among suburban black men this time (think Michael Steele) and better among urban and rural black men.

Michael Steele is a very specific person with very specific political interests. You shouldn't base your take on any group of people on his political behavior; he isn't acting that way because he's in that group (unless that group is TV pundits).
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