Morning Consult - a bunch of states
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  Morning Consult - a bunch of states
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Author Topic: Morning Consult - a bunch of states  (Read 3621 times)
TheLaRocca
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« Reply #75 on: October 24, 2020, 06:11:03 PM »

Does Hegar need to make the explicit point "If you're voting for Biden, you've got to vote for me too or Biden can't accomplish anything" in her ads? Is it possible that would be counterproductive? Are there even any Trump/Hegar voters anyway?

She's got to get that message out to every Biden voter somehow.

Corynyn might do 1 or 2% better than Trump. That's it really.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #76 on: October 24, 2020, 06:51:08 PM »

413 is assured, Trump is done in TX, Senator HEGAR

Secular Californians moving to TX are are causing TX to join the SUNBELT STACK.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #77 on: October 24, 2020, 07:09:31 PM »

So much for that oil bump.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #78 on: October 24, 2020, 07:22:05 PM »
« Edited: October 24, 2020, 07:26:37 PM by Kansas City Suburbanite for Orman-Clinton-Kelly For Marshall »

Who are the 7% of voters voting Biden, but not Hegar, and why?

Is it conservatives who want Trump gone and explicitly want to kneecap him in the Senate? If so, fair enough, but no Biden voter outside of those should be voting for any Republican senator.

Probably people who don't know who Hegar is, but will end up voting for her because she's a Democrat.

It's 2020, not 1988. Partisanship is very strong and only getting stronger. Russ Feingold was up in the polls by a decent margin in fall 2016, but lost WI because Hillary lost. McGinty was ahead in PA in 2016 as well, but lost.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #79 on: October 24, 2020, 07:32:37 PM »

Who are the 7% of voters voting Biden, but not Hegar, and why?

Is it conservatives who want Trump gone and explicitly want to kneecap him in the Senate? If so, fair enough, but no Biden voter outside of those should be voting for any Republican senator.

Probably people who don't know who Hegar is, but will end up voting for her because she's a Democrat.

It's 2020, not 1988. Partisanship is very strong and only getting stronger. Russ Feingold was up in the polls by a decent margin in fall 2016, but lost WI because Hillary lost. McGinty was ahead in PA in 2016 as well, but lost.

We're just over a week out with millions having voted already. This was my take with regards to TXSEN, NCSEN, etc., but the longer those apparently implausible margins hold, the more seriously we're going to have to take them. They'll still overstate things, but some sort of Cornyn overperformance looks quite likely at this point due to (at the very least) a level of down-ballot drop off.
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