1976 - Reagan beats Ford for Republican Nomination

[dazzleman]

This primary battle is the most monumental in recent history.

Incumbent President Gerald Ford narrowly beats back a strong challenge from Former California Governor Ronald Reagan for the Republican presidential nomination.

Had Reagan won the nomination instead of Ford in 1976, what would the repercussions have been to this day?

Would Reagan have beaten Jimmy Carter in the fall election?

If not, would have have received the 1980 nomination?

Had Reagan become president in 1977 rather than 1981, would his presidency have been as successful?

[Nym90]

I'm pretty sure this thread has been done before, but there's no harm in doing it again; it's a good topic.

I think that Carter would have won the election, and would have lost to a different Republican in 1980 (Bush possibly?).

If Reagan had won, which is certainly possible, I think he would have had a pretty good chance of losing in 1980, though obviously it would depend on the Democratic nominee.

Carter certainly made a lot of mistakes and in a lot of ways he wasn't prepared for the job (he didn't really have enough experience). His style of micromanagement was ill-suited to the Presidency, although in some ways it was refreshing in contrast to the "pass the buck" and "plausible deniability" mentality of many other Presidents.

However, a lot of the problems of that era were fairly intractable, also. The 1970's in general were a tough period for anyone to be in office. Carter did a lot of good things too which are somewhat overlooked such as the Israel-Egypt peace accord and the release of the Iranian hostages (too late for him to win reelection, but still, he did do it eventually and should be commended for working hard up to his last day in office when he could have easily just passed the problem along to Reagan). Also, job growth was strong and the deficit remained stable under Carter, although of course inflation helped cancel out many of the positive effects of these things. Inflation was one of those problems that was persistent throughout the 1970's under Presidents of both parties.

Of course, this brings up another interesting What-If: would Carter have won reelection in 1980 if the hostages had been released before the election? I think he would have had a pretty decent chance, though it would have been close either way.

[True Democrat]

I don't think country was ready for Reagan in 1976, Carter win 366-172:

[dazzleman]

I think you're right, True Democrat.

Reagan's best ally in 1980 was Carter himself as a failed, incompetent president.  In 1976, the spectacle of the Carter failure was not there yet, and he was seen as a fresh face who offered a lot of promise.  It would have been a lot harder for Reagan to compete against that.

Plus, as you say, the country wasn't yet ready for Reagan in 1976.

[Lincoln Republican]

I have to agree that Carter would still have won in 1976, even if Reagan was the Republican nominee.

I do not agree, however, that the EV count would be 366/172.  I believe Reagan would have made it closer than that.

[True Democrat]

I have to agree that Carter would still have won in 1976, even if Reagan was the Republican nominee.

I do not agree, however, that the EV count would be 366/172.  I believe Reagan would have made it closer than that.

Only five states were switched:

Mississippi to Reagan: Reagan's more conservative
Maine to Carter: Maine was already close, NE Republicans didn't like Reagan (see Anderson vote in 1980)
Michigan to Carter: Lack of Ford in Michigan means a Carter win
Illinois to Carter: Already close, general swing to Carter means Illinois is swung
Iowa to Carter: See Illinois

[WalterMitty]

question:  reagan promised to name richard schweiker as his running mate.  had reagan lost in the general to carter, would the liberal schweiker have emerged as a leading contender for the 1980 republican nomination?

[adam]

question:  reagan promised to name richard schweiker as his running mate.  had reagan lost in the general to carter, would the liberal schweiker have emerged as a leading contender for the 1980 republican nomination?

I doubt it. Losing VP candidates never do so grand the year after they lose. See Joe Lieberman.

[Lincoln Republican]

I have to agree that Carter would still have won in 1976, even if Reagan was the Republican nominee.

I do not agree, however, that the EV count would be 366/172.  I believe Reagan would have made it closer than that.

Only five states were switched:

Mississippi to Reagan: Reagan's more conservative
Maine to Carter: Maine was already close, NE Republicans didn't like Reagan (see Anderson vote in 1980)
Michigan to Carter: Lack of Ford in Michigan means a Carter win
Illinois to Carter: Already close, general swing to Carter means Illinois is swung
Iowa to Carter: See Illinois

You make some valid points with these states.

On the flip side, however, other things to consider

Reagan was a much better speaker and debater than Ford or Carter. 
Reagan was probably the master manipulator of the media at the time.
Reagan was much more polished politically than Ford or Carter.
Reagan was charismatic, whereas Ford was at least perceived as non inspiring.
Reagan was not bogged down in the campaign as the one who pardoned Nixon, whereas Ford was.
   

[Lincoln Republican]

question:  reagan promised to name richard schweiker as his running mate.  had reagan lost in the general to carter, would the liberal schweiker have emerged as a leading contender for the 1980 republican nomination?

The short answer is a definite no.

Reagan plucked Senator Schweiker from relative obscurity, as he wanted a moderate running mate to act as a balance to his own conservatism.  Schewiker did not have the presidential persona or political clout to enable him to go on to win the Republican nomination in 1980.

One would have go all the way back to 1920 to find a defeated Vice Presidential nominee who went on later to become President.  Franklin D Roosevelt was the VP running mate for losing Democrat James Cox in 1920.  Of course, FDR went on to be elected President in 1932.