A question for the doomers

[Dr. MB]

What's the fun in being so tiresome all the time? Not shooting for the moon and being all overconfident in your side takes out basically all the fun of elections. Do you also enjoy getting kicked in the balls on a daily basis? Cause otherwise I don't see much of a point.

[Horus]

Outside of elections I'm a reasonably optimistic person. But this country reelected a war criminal in 2004 and followed it up with Donald Trump 12 years later. Forgive me for having doubts about the sanity of the average American voter.

I also disagree that overconfidence makes elections fun.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The Biden campaign loves to pretend that they're doomed because they were "outraised" and some garbage poll has them down just that that they can raise some more money for a win that they don't have to do anything for.

[Pericles]

The Biden campaign loves to pretend that they're doomed because they were "outraised" and some garbage poll has them down just that that they can raise some more money for a win that they don't have to do anything for.

Beet, Horus and Forumlurker being paid by the Biden campaign is a galaxy brain take.

[Santander]

I was laughed at when I said Trump would win in 2016.

[Ferguson97]

As a former doomer, my reasoning was some combination of wanting to be emotionally prepared in case of the worst and 2016 PTSD.

[Beet]

I don't enjoy being a doomer, but it's simply the reality that politics in America and most of the world generally trends in a negative direction. Even if Biden somehow manages to win this year, I don't think that'll change.

[Hammy]

As a former doomer, my reasoning was some combination of wanting to be emotionally prepared in case of the worst and 2016 PTSD.

Same on this at least with certainty, though I'm largely trying to keep my anxieties out of my predictions (otherwise I'd be saying Trump wins everything and all the polls are wrong, which I don't actually believe but it's amazing how much doubt anxiety disorder can introduce). I do often find myself questioning my predictions if a lot is at stake regardless the topic, wondering if it's "safe" to predict this or that--be it a Dem victory or a hurricane turning out to sea.

That said, as somebody who is called a doomer any time I have a prediction even slightly right of consensus, I am a statistical nut--above all, when I make a prediction, I want to feel certain what I'm predicting is the most likely outcome, not simply what I want to happen or what I fear will happen as a lot of posters seem to do. While I do need to vent sometimes, it doesn't seep into my predictions.

I'll admit this gets on people's nerves on weather forums as well, any time a hurricane is shown in the long range that doesn't pan out and I mention the models are trending away from development. I take history (a poll or computer model) into account, along with trends and other factors (some models handle shear better for example, and likewise some pollsters have biases and more undecideds than others)--for me this is a puzzle to be solved, and something I am to be as close ahead of time as possible.

I will add that I'm not happy that I let my anxiety completely overtake my congressional predictions in the last election, but it at least cleared up for me why the polls were wrong so I'm not so worried about that this go.

[President Johnson]

I don't enjoy being a doomer, but it's simply the reality that politics in America and most of the world generally trends in a negative direction. Even if Biden somehow manages to win this year, I don't think that'll change.

"Joe Biden somehow manages to win"... what? You mean Trump, who is running ten points behind? Even if the polls were as correct/wrong as in 2016, Biden would still handily win. But even that is unlikely, since it assumes pollsters have not improved their methodology.

Trump is on track to get blown out and populists are on the decline in Europe as well. That certainly has something to do with Covid19, which revealed how important competence in government is. Throughout history, it has always been the case with populist movements. As soon as they have to govern and deliver solutions, their power collapses and people want a return to stable leadership, even if it's boring. I just hope human kind will finally learn the lesson that right-wing populists are a fraud.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The Biden campaign loves to pretend that they're doomed because they were "outraised" and some garbage poll has them down just that that they can raise some more money for a win that they don't have to do anything for.

Beet, Horus and Forumlurker being paid by the Biden campaign is a galaxy brain take.

Well, when the Biden campaign says they're down 1 point in Michigan because of some garbage poll, they're encouraging the doomers.

[Hammy]

I don't enjoy being a doomer

I legitimately get the feeling you do.

[Former President tack50]

I am not really a doomer although I do think I might be slightly more pessimistic than average for Atlas

However, is it not easy to understand? Put yourself in the shoes of a doomer for a moment:

If Trump wins: Sucks but whatever it was to be expected
If Trump loses (especially if he loses a landslide): You celebrate and are very happy at the unexpected victory

Meanwhile if you are overconfident:

If Trump loses: Nice, but whatever it was to be expected
If Trump wins: Meltdown

[S019ian Liberal]

I am not really a doomer although I do think I might be slightly more pessimistic than average for Atlas

However, is it not easy to understand? Put yourself in the shoes of a doomer for a moment:

If Trump wins: Sucks but whatever it was to be expected
If Trump loses (especially if he loses a landslide): You celebrate and are very happy at the unexpected victory

Meanwhile if you are overconfident:

If Trump loses: Nice, but whatever it was to be expected
If Trump wins: Meltdown

Oh, the power of Lowering Expectations.

[Farmlands]

What's the fun in being so tiresome all the time? Not shooting for the moon and being all overconfident in your side takes out basically all the fun of elections. Do you also enjoy getting kicked in the balls on a daily basis? Cause otherwise I don't see much of a point.

Because I enjoy the satisfaction of having nailed the results. Also gives me some nice bragging rights later.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I am not really a doomer although I do think I might be slightly more pessimistic than average for Atlas

However, is it not easy to understand? Put yourself in the shoes of a doomer for a moment:

If Trump wins: Sucks but whatever it was to be expected
If Trump loses (especially if he loses a landslide): You celebrate and are very happy at the unexpected victory

Meanwhile if you are overconfident:

If Trump loses: Nice, but whatever it was to be expected
If Trump wins: Meltdown

Oh, the power of Lowering Expectations.

If that's the pessimism here is the primary motivation for avoiding "optimistic"/neutral electoral analysis, just abandon electoral pessimism and instead take a realistic view of a Biden administration's probable failure to achieve most of its president's stated goals.

[roxas11]

I dont understand why anyone would be a doomer at this point       

The earrly vote numbers are insane and makes it very clear this the election it going to have very high turnout

Now maybe if I was seeing very low turnout I would be worried but as it stands I dont see Trump winning this election if record numbers of people are all coming out to vote.     

[KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸]

Because Hillary won in 2016, all the polls had her miles ahead of Trump. 2020 is a lock for the Democrats, just like 2016 clearly was.

Especially the Senate. Cal Cunnilingus, Theresa Greenfield, and Steve Bullock might as well declare victory right now.

[S019ian Liberal]

Because Hillary won in 2016, all the polls had her miles ahead of Trump. 2020 is a lock for the Democrats, just like 2016 clearly was.

Especially the Senate. Cal Cunnilingus, Theresa Greenfield, and Steve Bullock might as well declare victory right now.

oh and don't forget the asstronaut. Kark Melly

I dont understand why anyone would be a doomer at this point       

The earrly vote numbers are insane and makes it very clear this the election it going to have very high turnout

Now maybe if I was seeing very low turnout I would be worried but as it stands I dont see Trump winning this election if record numbers of people are all coming out to vote.     

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/02/19/knight-survey-nonvoters-battleground-states-trump-democrats-112135

[roxas11]

Because Hillary won in 2016, all the polls had her miles ahead of Trump. 2020 is a lock for the Democrats, just like 2016 clearly was.

Especially the Senate. Cal Cunnilingus, Theresa Greenfield, and Steve Bullock might as well declare victory right now.

2020 is not 2016 and more than 50 Million Americans Have Already Voted

had we gotten these kinds on numbers back in in 2016
the comey letters would have had far less impact on the race and Hillary would be in the white house right about now

[KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸]

Because Hillary won in 2016, all the polls had her miles ahead of Trump. 2020 is a lock for the Democrats, just like 2016 clearly was.

Especially the Senate. Cal Cunnilingus, Theresa Greenfield, and Steve Bullock might as well declare victory right now.

2020 is not 2016 and more than 50 Million Americans Have Already Voted

had we gotten these kinds on numbers back in in 2016
the comey letters would have had far less impact on the race and Hillary would probley be in the white house right now

And you do realize that not all of those 50 million are Democrats, right?

[S019ian Liberal]

Because Hillary won in 2016, all the polls had her miles ahead of Trump. 2020 is a lock for the Democrats, just like 2016 clearly was.

Especially the Senate. Cal Cunnilingus, Theresa Greenfield, and Steve Bullock might as well declare victory right now.

2020 is not 2016 and more than 50 Million Americans Have Already Voted

had we gotten these kinds on numbers back in in 2016
the comey letters would have had far less impact on the race and Hillary would probley be in the white house right now

And you do realize that not all of those 50 million are Democrats, right?

Yeah but banked votes.

Let's say it was 2016 with those numbers.

The 50 million early votes go Clinton + 5, which was more than perfectly reasonable for the count pre-Comey bombshell.

The rest of the 86 million votes are Clinton +2.

Then the national popular vote is well over Clinton +3 on aggregate, meaning the wins the EC on uniform swing.

Of course, those are all rough back-of-the-muffin-envelope calculations. But it just goes to show the power of resting on an early lead knowing that whatever mishaps/disinformation occur on Nov 3, these ballots are already safe for your candidate.

P.S. I'm fully aware the split between early-early votes and postal + "late early" + e-day is probably greater than 3%, I'm not interested in rehashing those numbers out here though. Just to be making a simple point instead

[Inmate Trump]

2016 is the reason for me.

Hillary was leading and still lost. Sure, Biden is leading by more than she was but a polling error is still possible. Shy Trump voters is still possible. Trump stealing it by the courts or something else is still possible. Trump staging a coup is possible. Crazed right wingers rioting is possible. Covid killing a president elect before the electoral college convenes, resulting in a Constitutional crisis is possible.

Nothing I’ve seen over the last 4 years indicates this is going to be easy or peaceful and I won’t rest easy until Trump is no longer president. Even if Biden starts polling at 60% in Florida. Even if Biden wins 413 electoral votes. This won’t be over until Trump is out of office in January and I will be rightfully nervous until then.

And in a weird way that is probably littered with psychological problems, my dooming is a way to hope that the opposite of what I predict happens as many of my predictions haven’t been right over the years. And it’s also a way to lower my own expectations so I won’t be disappointed.

[roxas11]

Because Hillary won in 2016, all the polls had her miles ahead of Trump. 2020 is a lock for the Democrats, just like 2016 clearly was.

Especially the Senate. Cal Cunnilingus, Theresa Greenfield, and Steve Bullock might as well declare victory right now.

2020 is not 2016 and more than 50 Million Americans Have Already Voted

had we gotten these kinds on numbers back in in 2016
the comey letters would have had far less impact on the race and Hillary would probley be in the white house right now

And you do realize that not all of those 50 million are Democrats, right?

I never implied that it was and I dont see what that has to do with the point I was making

In 2016 less people had voted at this point and we still had a lot of undecided voters
which is why the commey letter had such an impact in the first place

In 2020 50 millon have already voted and very few people are Undecided about how they feel about president trump or Joe biden

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The BLM is one of the biggest contributors of Bidens success this election as General Robert E Lee Statues are taken down and was a cuz of Robert Oswald and Lee Oswald and we're named in his honor, it all makes sense now.  

But athletes still contribute to the big oil interest by playing for the owners like Jerry Jones whom is a TX oil contributor. But, Football and Basketball players are the most loyal D's. Baseball and Hockey players aren't loyal D's.

[BlueSwan]

I don't think I am a doomer, but I AM deeply concerned. I believe Joe Biden is the favourite, for sure, but even a 1 in 6 risk of a Trump victory makes me very uneasy. I believe this election is easily the most important of any election in any country in my lifetime.