Chief Pollster of Trafalgar Predicts Trump Wins the Election

[Tekken_Guy]

I just don't see the "social desirability" theory playing out, because what Trump supporters are shy or secretive about admitting they like Trump? They tend to be loud and proud and under the impression that everyone else is too.

Maybe it’s a strategic move. Hide from the pollsters so Democrats won’t be prepared to deal with them.

[It’s so Joever]

Either Trafalgar will lose all credibility this cycle, or they will become the gold standard of polling. Vote now so that Trafalgar fails.

[DrScholl]

Let's not overlook the possibility that they could herd their polling next week to make themselves look right and save themselves from ruining their reputation for future clients.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I just don't see the "social desirability" theory playing out, because what Trump supporters are shy or secretive about admitting they like Trump? They tend to be loud and proud and under the impression that everyone else is too.

Maybe it’s a strategic move. Hide from the pollsters so Democrats won’t be prepared to deal with them.

In order for that to pan out, Trump supporters would actually have to answer the polls, say they didn't vote in 2016, voted 3rd party in 2016, or voted for Clinton, but will be voting for Trump come 2020. Right now, we see very few Clinton - Trump voters in polls. If they answered Trump - Trump, they're counted the same as any other Trump supporter, and if they don't answer, the pollster will still end up weighting by 2016 vote share (which if anything, likely lowers Biden's share in the polls since D turnout was bad in 2016 and early vote suggests better news turnout wise). Idk, but I just find it hard to believe enough Trump supporters are doing this to have any meaningful statistical impact on polls that isn't already being corrected

[compucomp]

Somebody said in another thread that there aren't really "shy" Trump voters so much as there are Trump voters who hang up on pollsters because Trump told them they are liars and crooked just like the MSM.

And working for a polling firm, I can confirm this. I'll normally call somebody and ask them if they'd like to participate in a poll about issues in their state/district, and what I find is that the majority of people who support Democrats are very open about sharing information and complete the poll.

On the other hand, I can immediately sense the Trump supporters because as soon as I ask something about participating in a poll they say things like "who's paying for this?" or "who are you affiliated with?". I've had a few say things like "this sounds like fake news" with some assorted cursing, and then they hang up on me. I've heard a LOT of this.

In other words, that social trust gap I've heard about as a theory of why Trump supporters are often hidden....there's probably something to that. They clearly dislike participating in polls. Just fair warning.

Interesting points. Essentially you're saying there is a "response bias" that causes polls to undersample Trump supporters. However, I remember reading that response rates in general for phone polls are pretty poor (edit: someone said <5%, that's actually pretty awful and explains why phone polls are so expensive) nowadays; people may not even answer the phone seeing an unknown number, may take your call as a telemarking call, etc. Could it be that the Trump supporters that refuse to answer polls are not an outsized proportion of non-responders, it's just that they yell at you and thus make a greater impression next to the people who politely hang you up?

[Hammy]

It is certainly more possible than many here seem to think. I think Biden has about a 2/3 chance if nothing else changes much in the next 10 days.

You're forgetting 2018 happened and it didn't have that massive polling error because, surprise, no huge undecided number.

[Tekken_Guy]

I just don't see the "social desirability" theory playing out, because what Trump supporters are shy or secretive about admitting they like Trump? They tend to be loud and proud and under the impression that everyone else is too.

Maybe it’s a strategic move. Hide from the pollsters so Democrats won’t be prepared to deal with them.

In order for that to pan out, Trump supporters would actually have to answer the polls, say they didn't vote in 2016, voted 3rd party in 2016, or voted for Clinton, but will be voting for Trump come 2020. Right now, we see very few Clinton - Trump voters in polls. If they answered Trump - Trump, they're counted the same as any other Trump supporter, and if they don't answer, the pollster will still end up weighting by 2016 vote share (which if anything, likely lowers Biden's share in the polls since D turnout was bad in 2016 and early vote suggests better news turnout wise). Idk, but I just find it hard to believe enough Trump supporters are doing this to have any meaningful statistical impact on polls that isn't already being corrected

Doesn’t doing that make Trump’s support look stronger than it actually is? I means people who don’t say they vote for Trump or choose to opt out of the survey altogether.

[EJ24]

Somebody said in another thread that there aren't really "shy" Trump voters so much as there are Trump voters who hang up on pollsters because Trump told them they are liars and crooked just like the MSM.

And working for a polling firm, I can confirm this. I'll normally call somebody and ask them if they'd like to participate in a poll about issues in their state/district, and what I find is that the majority of people who support Democrats are very open about sharing information and complete the poll.

On the other hand, I can immediately sense the Trump supporters because as soon as I ask something about participating in a poll they say things like "who's paying for this?" or "who are you affiliated with?". I've had a few say things like "this sounds like fake news" with some assorted cursing, and then they hang up on me. I've heard a LOT of this.

In other words, that social trust gap I've heard about as a theory of why Trump supporters are often hidden....there's probably something to that. They clearly dislike participating in polls. Just fair warning.

Interesting points. Essentially you're saying there is a "response bias" that causes polls to undersample Trump supporters. However, I remember reading that response rates in general for phone polls are pretty poor nowadays; people may not even answer the phone seeing an unknown number, may take your call as a telemarking call, etc. Could it be that the Trump supporters that refuse to answer polls are not an outsized proportion of non-responders, it's just that they yell at you and thus make a greater impression next to the people who politely hang you up?

I'm not sure, maybe. I'm just pointing out that the Trump supporters who tend to answer these polls in the first place are very hesitant and distrustful about the entire process. That leads me to believe there are many more who refuse to participate at all.  

[Horus]

It is certainly more possible than many here seem to think. I think Biden has about a 2/3 chance if nothing else changes much in the next 10 days.

You're forgetting 2018 happened and it didn't have that massive polling error because, surprise, no huge undecided number.

And you're forgetting that Donald Trump wasn't on the ballot and, as has been stated in this thread, respondents are funny about expressing their support for him, at least to a pollster.

[Asta]

Trafalgar is only right when Rs outperform polling, they were 10 points off in GA in 2018, so much for that argument, were 4% off in AZ-SEN, 8% off in NV-SEN, 7% off in TX-SEN, and so on. Guessing the correct answer on a multiple choice test that everyone else got wrong doesn't make me a genius, and this seems to be what's going on here with Trafalgar, since when you look at their methodology, it seems like they try hard to subtly manipulate the numbers to reach the output they want, as Silver said.

If he's right, he's right, but if he's wrong, he's wrong, we just have to wait and see.

I posted similar thing about it as well. Their Kemp +12 was laughable. It gets ignored because they identified the winner correctly.

That said, their margins in ND, MI and MO were great. Their strength seems to be around Midwest so we'll have to see.

[EJ24]

Another thing I've noticed from the pro-Trump respondents is that IF they admit on the call to supporting Trump, many of them will repeatedly ask if this is private/confidential information, ask me to hide their name in the records, I had one tell me he's heavily armed and willing to defend himself if this information gets leaked.
 
I mean that last case was pretty extreme. I'm just saying on average, they do seem extremely concerned with people knowing they answered the way they did. Which lends a little bit of credibility to the shy Trump voter thing.

AGAIN, this is all anecdotal. But I make these calls every day.

[7,052,770]

Another thing I've noticed from the pro-Trump respondents is that IF they admit on the call to supporting Trump, many of them will repeatedly ask if this is private/confidential information, ask me to hide their name in the records, I had one tell me he's heavily armed and willing to defend himself if this information gets leaked.
 
I mean that last case was pretty extreme. I'm just saying on average, they do seem extremely concerned with people knowing they answered the way they did. Which lends a little bit of credibility to the shy Trump voter thing.

AGAIN, this is all anecdotal. But I make these calls every day.

In what states do you see this? I can assure you it's not the case in suburban Mississippi, much less the rural parts. I see way more Trump bumper stickers on cars that I ever saw for Romney, McCain, or even Bush, even as suburban Jackson has inched more Democratic (but basically the same) over the last 20 years.

[EJ24]

Another thing I've noticed from the pro-Trump respondents is that IF they admit on the call to supporting Trump, many of them will repeatedly ask if this is private/confidential information, ask me to hide their name in the records, I had one tell me he's heavily armed and willing to defend himself if this information gets leaked.
 
I mean that last case was pretty extreme. I'm just saying on average, they do seem extremely concerned with people knowing they answered the way they did. Which lends a little bit of credibility to the shy Trump voter thing.

AGAIN, this is all anecdotal. But I make these calls every day.

In what states do you see this? I can assure you it's not the case in suburban Mississippi, much less the rural parts. I see way more Trump bumper stickers on cars that I ever saw for Romney, McCain, or even Bush, even as suburban Jackson has inched more Democratic (but basically the same) over the last 20 years.

Literally every state we poll, but we mostly poll the basic battlegrounds: MI, WI, PA, FL, GA, NC, AZ

And yeah, I'm in Alabama. I see the same thing. But we're seeing the base. We are seeing that enthusiastic 40%. And yes, they are loud and open. But the shy Trump vote theory states there's a "hidden" group of voters who put Trump over the top last time very narrowly, and could do so again because they are being undersampled in polls. I'm not sure I completely buy into it, by the way. But I can see a fair amount of evidence for the case.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I don’t understand the logic of the “shy Trump voter” theory at the individual level.

Why do these voters believe they need to hide their support of Trump?  Most Trump voters live in areas where the overwhelming majority of people also support Trump.  And most Trumop voters believe that the majority of Americans support Trump, and they receive a media diet the reinforces that belief.

So who exactly do they think they need to hide from?

Moreover, if they social desireability theory were true to generalizable extent, we should expect polls to underestimate Republican support in Democratic areas and underestimate Democratic support in Republican areas.  And yet we routinely see the exact opposite.  Especially in 2016, polls underestimated Trump most in deep red states.  Why would Trump voters in Oklahoma be more shy than Trump voters in California?

[Horus]

I don’t understand the logic of the “shy Trump voter” theory at the individual level.

Why do these voters believe they need to hide their support of Trump?  Most Trump voters live in areas where the overwhelming majority of people also support Trump.  And most Trumop voters believe that the majority of Americans support Trump, and they receive a media diet the reinforces that belief.

So who exactly do they think they need to hide from?

Moreover, if they social desireability theory were true to generalizable extent, we should expect polls to underestimate Republican support in Democratic areas and underestimate Democratic support in Republican areas.  And yet we routinely see the exact opposite.  Especially in 2016, polls underestimated Trump most in deep red states.  Why would Trump voters in Oklahoma be more shy than Trump voters in California?

Subconsciously they still know they're a minority, at least the smarter ones.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I don’t understand the logic of the “shy Trump voter” theory at the individual level.

Why do these voters believe they need to hide their support of Trump?  Most Trump voters live in areas where the overwhelming majority of people also support Trump.  And most Trumop voters believe that the majority of Americans support Trump, and they receive a media diet the reinforces that belief.

So who exactly do they think they need to hide from?

Moreover, if they social desireability theory were true to generalizable extent, we should expect polls to underestimate Republican support in Democratic areas and underestimate Democratic support in Republican areas.  And yet we routinely see the exact opposite.  Especially in 2016, polls underestimated Trump most in deep red states.  Why would Trump voters in Oklahoma be more shy than Trump voters in California?

Subconsciously they still know they're a minority, at least the smarter ones.

Not just that. On some level, they know that supporting Trump is wrong, un-American, evil. On some level, they're embarrassed and ashamed. Maybe not of being Republican, or conservative, or of their beliefs, but of supporting a deranged and abusive jackwagon as their leader.

[S019ian Liberal]

For the love of all that is holy, there are no shy Trump voters. They're a myth. I mean, seriously: silent Trump supporters? You think the fascists, Nazis, neo-Confederates, bigots, religious lunatics, Klansmen, &/or enablers of all the aforementioned demographics are gonna be silent about that sh*t? Give me a break.

Get real: Trump won in 2016 on the basis of voter apathy & undecideds hating him less than they hated Hillary. That's it. And in case anybody may have forgotten, here's your reminder that neither of those factors are at play this year. Game over.

He didn't win because of any of them lol.

There aren't 63 million of those scattered around the USA. He won because of reluctant ancestral Republicans "coming home."

[S019ian Liberal]

Somebody said in another thread that there aren't really "shy" Trump voters so much as there are Trump voters who hang up on pollsters because Trump told them they are liars and crooked just like the MSM.

And working for a polling firm, I can confirm this. I'll normally call somebody and ask them if they'd like to participate in a poll about issues in their state/district, and what I find is that the majority of people who support Democrats are very open about sharing information and complete the poll.

On the other hand, I can immediately sense the Trump supporters because as soon as I ask something about participating in a poll they say things like "who's paying for this?" or "who are you affiliated with?". I've had a few say things like "this sounds like fake news" with some assorted cursing, and then they hang up on me. I've heard a LOT of this.

In other words, that social trust gap I've heard about as a theory of why Trump supporters are often hidden....there's probably something to that. They clearly dislike participating in polls. Just fair warning.

He's basically banking on what you say to be right, and a big enough factor to swing the race at least ~5% points or so, up until this point.

[S019ian Liberal]

I just don't see the "social desirability" theory playing out, because what Trump supporters are shy or secretive about admitting they like Trump? They tend to be loud and proud and under the impression that everyone else is too.

Not true, for

[S019ian Liberal]

Let's not overlook the possibility that they could herd their polling next week to make themselves look right and save themselves from ruining their reputation for future clients.

don't think it's gonna happen, they're too invested in this own theory by now, but cool idea at this point imo honestly.

[Hammy]

I just don't see the "social desirability" theory playing out, because what Trump supporters are shy or secretive about admitting they like Trump? They tend to be loud and proud and under the impression that everyone else is too.

Maybe it’s a strategic move. Hide from the pollsters so Democrats won’t be prepared to deal with them.

In order for that to pan out, Trump supporters would actually have to answer the polls, say they didn't vote in 2016, voted 3rd party in 2016, or voted for Clinton, but will be voting for Trump come 2020. Right now, we see very few Clinton - Trump voters in polls. If they answered Trump - Trump, they're counted the same as any other Trump supporter, and if they don't answer, the pollster will still end up weighting by 2016 vote share (which if anything, likely lowers Biden's share in the polls since D turnout was bad in 2016 and early vote suggests better news turnout wise). Idk, but I just find it hard to believe enough Trump supporters are doing this to have any meaningful statistical impact on polls that isn't already being corrected

Essentially why the undecideds are key--how they break in the end will prove whether or not this theory holds water. If Biden over-performs more than Trump (as I highly doubt either will under-perform their polling) then we know it was just conservative fantasy and an anomaly resulting from how unpopular both were in 2016.

[DaleCooper]

I think a better name for the "Shy Trump Voter" phenomenon would be the "Uneasy Trump Voter". I think these are people that don't feel comfortable making the jump to admitting to themselves or others that they actually support Trump or want him to win, but in the end they rationalize it and vote for him anyway. This is probably why the fluctuations in head-to-head polls tend to show Trump support wavering while Biden is consistently at or above 50% nationally and in most swing states.

[Xing]

The overwhelming majority of people predict what they want to see happen. News at 11.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Being from the state that gave Trump his worst defeat in the lower 48 & is a petri dish for everything and everyone he stands against, I can guarantee that Trump voters are not shy at all.

[Hammy]

The overwhelming majority of people predict what they want to see happen. News at 11.

Doesn't that call all of Atlas's confidence into question?

(Also a bit off topic I just checked your prediction, GA flipping before NC is an interesting take)