MI-03 - Strategic National: Biden+11 (no party ID weight), Biden+3 with party ID weight
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Author Topic: MI-03 - Strategic National: Biden+11 (no party ID weight), Biden+3 with party ID weight  (Read 519 times)
n1240
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« on: October 24, 2020, 12:13:06 PM »
https://mirsnews.com/images/Strategic_National_-_MI-3_Poll.pdf

No party ID weight (D+4)

Biden 52
Trump 41

Party ID weight (R+4)

Biden 48
Trump 45

10/15-17, 400 LV

Trump 52-42 district in 2016
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redjohn
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« Reply #1 on: October 24, 2020, 12:19:54 PM »
Ouch. Michigan's about to humiliate Trump.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #2 on: October 24, 2020, 12:57:11 PM »
For MIRS News

MoE: 4.9%

No party ID weight: undecided 7%
Party ID weight: undecided 7%
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #3 on: October 24, 2020, 12:58:31 PM »
But... but... Trafalgar?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #4 on: October 24, 2020, 01:03:10 PM »
Little confusing, but essentially they are saying this district will go for Biden between 4 and 11 points?
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Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.
Nathan
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« Reply #5 on: October 24, 2020, 01:04:25 PM »
Amash's district and, traditionally, orthodox Dutch Calvinist turf. Historically awful numbers for a Republican incumbent.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #6 on: October 24, 2020, 01:28:22 PM »
Quote from: The scissors of false economy on October 24, 2020, 01:04:25 PM
Amash's district and, traditionally, orthodox Dutch Calvinist turf. Historically awful numbers for a Republican incumbent.

Dutch voters overwhelmingly voted for Trump in 2016, but there were pretty decent swings towards Hillary.
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Holmes
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« Reply #7 on: October 24, 2020, 01:33:14 PM »
Why release no party weight results? Literally useless data.
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n1240
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« Reply #8 on: October 24, 2020, 01:37:05 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 24, 2020, 01:03:10 PM
Little confusing, but essentially they are saying this district will go for Biden between 4 and 11 points?

Their sample without weighing by party ID was D+4, and gave Biden+11, however they think that's an unrealistic expectation so they applied a weight by party ID to produce an R+4 sample, similarly to a poll unskewing fashion.

Quote from: Holmes on October 24, 2020, 01:33:14 PM
Why release no party weight results? Literally useless data.

How is it useless? Pollsters typically only weigh by party if there is party registration in the state.
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