OK-01 - SoonerPoll/News on 6: Hern +29%, Inhofe at 54%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://www.newson6.com/story/5f933166948da11050c70aee/news-on-6-exclusive-poll:-hern-well-ahead-in-quest-to-be-reelected

October 15-20
1492 likely voters

Hern +29%

Hern (R-inc.) 59%
Asamoa-Caesar (D) 30%
Evelyn L. Rogers (I) 6%
Undecided 6%

Senate: Inhofe 54%

Hern won by 59.3%-40.7% in 2018.

[Calthrina950]

https://www.newson6.com/story/5f933166948da11050c70aee/news-on-6-exclusive-poll:-hern-well-ahead-in-quest-to-be-reelected

October 15-20
1492 likely voters

Hern +29%

Hern (R-inc.) 59%
Asamoa-Caesar (D) 30%
Evelyn L. Rogers (I) 6%
Undecided 6%

Senate: Inhofe 54%

Hern won by 59.3%-40.7% in 2018.

Why are Trump and Inhofe apparently running behind Hern? Trump I can understand, but Inhofe? That doesn't make any sense to me. If this poll is to be believed, Hern is matching his support from last time. At any rate, this district is Safe R at all levels. OK-05 is the district that needs to be watched.

[Astatine]

https://www.newson6.com/story/5f933166948da11050c70aee/news-on-6-exclusive-poll:-hern-well-ahead-in-quest-to-be-reelected

October 15-20
1492 likely voters

Hern +29%

Hern (R-inc.) 59%
Asamoa-Caesar (D) 30%
Evelyn L. Rogers (I) 6%
Undecided 6%

Senate: Inhofe 54%

Hern won by 59.3%-40.7% in 2018.

Why are Trump and Inhofe apparently running behind Hern? Trump I can understand, but Inhofe? That doesn't make any sense to me. If this poll is to be believed, Hern is matching his support from last time. At any rate, this district is Safe R at all levels. OK-05 is the district that needs to be watched.

It seems like Inhofe's approval rating is generally not as good as it used to be (https://tulsaworld.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/poll-trump-inhofe-hold-double-digit-leads-among-likely-oklahoma-voters/article_1eae2498-ff35-11ea-b398-27ec048af543.html).

Bold assumption, perhaps some right-leaning voters view him as too old to serve another term but would still break in his favor when voting?

[Calthrina950]

https://www.newson6.com/story/5f933166948da11050c70aee/news-on-6-exclusive-poll:-hern-well-ahead-in-quest-to-be-reelected

October 15-20
1492 likely voters

Hern +29%

Hern (R-inc.) 59%
Asamoa-Caesar (D) 30%
Evelyn L. Rogers (I) 6%
Undecided 6%

Senate: Inhofe 54%

Hern won by 59.3%-40.7% in 2018.

Why are Trump and Inhofe apparently running behind Hern? Trump I can understand, but Inhofe? That doesn't make any sense to me. If this poll is to be believed, Hern is matching his support from last time. At any rate, this district is Safe R at all levels. OK-05 is the district that needs to be watched.

It seems like Inhofe's approval rating is generally not as good as it used to be (https://tulsaworld.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/poll-trump-inhofe-hold-double-digit-leads-among-likely-oklahoma-voters/article_1eae2498-ff35-11ea-b398-27ec048af543.html).

Bold assumption, perhaps some right-leaning voters view him as too old to serve another term but would still break in his favor when voting?

Possibly. Inhofe did not face any primary opposition this year, once he had announced his decision to run for reelection. Hopefully, he's entering his last term, and will retire in 2026.

[Astatine]

https://www.newson6.com/story/5f933166948da11050c70aee/news-on-6-exclusive-poll:-hern-well-ahead-in-quest-to-be-reelected

October 15-20
1492 likely voters

Hern +29%

Hern (R-inc.) 59%
Asamoa-Caesar (D) 30%
Evelyn L. Rogers (I) 6%
Undecided 6%

Senate: Inhofe 54%

Hern won by 59.3%-40.7% in 2018.

Why are Trump and Inhofe apparently running behind Hern? Trump I can understand, but Inhofe? That doesn't make any sense to me. If this poll is to be believed, Hern is matching his support from last time. At any rate, this district is Safe R at all levels. OK-05 is the district that needs to be watched.

It seems like Inhofe's approval rating is generally not as good as it used to be (https://tulsaworld.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/poll-trump-inhofe-hold-double-digit-leads-among-likely-oklahoma-voters/article_1eae2498-ff35-11ea-b398-27ec048af543.html).

Bold assumption, perhaps some right-leaning voters view him as too old to serve another term but would still break in his favor when voting?

Possibly. Inhofe did not face any primary opposition this year, once he had announced his decision to run for reelection. Hopefully, he's entering his last term, and will retire in 2026.

Yeah, Oklahoma really needs a transition away from fossil fuels and fossils in the US Senate.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://www.newson6.com/story/5f933166948da11050c70aee/news-on-6-exclusive-poll:-hern-well-ahead-in-quest-to-be-reelected

October 15-20
1492 likely voters

Hern +29%

Hern (R-inc.) 59%
Asamoa-Caesar (D) 30%
Evelyn L. Rogers (I) 6%
Undecided 6%

Senate: Inhofe 54%

Hern won by 59.3%-40.7% in 2018.

Why are Trump and Inhofe apparently running behind Hern? Trump I can understand, but Inhofe? That doesn't make any sense to me. If this poll is to be believed, Hern is matching his support from last time. At any rate, this district is Safe R at all levels. OK-05 is the district that needs to be watched.

It seems like Inhofe's approval rating is generally not as good as it used to be (https://tulsaworld.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/poll-trump-inhofe-hold-double-digit-leads-among-likely-oklahoma-voters/article_1eae2498-ff35-11ea-b398-27ec048af543.html).

Bold assumption, perhaps some right-leaning voters view him as too old to serve another term but would still break in his favor when voting?

Possibly. Inhofe did not face any primary opposition this year, once he had announced his decision to run for reelection. Hopefully, he's entering his last term, and will retire in 2026.

I'd say it's pretty likely in his case - his late entrance suggested he was weighting the decision pretty carefully and there seemed to be no obvious reason for him to worry about reelection other than age. 90 is probably the best electoral cutoff point for distinguishing career Senators from lifers who don't care about the steep declines that occur in normal humans past that point.

[HAnnA MArin County]

I read this as Horn+29 first and got all excited, then I noticed the OK-01 part. ☹️

Funny how Oklahoma has a Congressmember Hern and Horn.

[Calthrina950]

https://www.newson6.com/story/5f933166948da11050c70aee/news-on-6-exclusive-poll:-hern-well-ahead-in-quest-to-be-reelected

October 15-20
1492 likely voters

Hern +29%

Hern (R-inc.) 59%
Asamoa-Caesar (D) 30%
Evelyn L. Rogers (I) 6%
Undecided 6%

Senate: Inhofe 54%

Hern won by 59.3%-40.7% in 2018.

Why are Trump and Inhofe apparently running behind Hern? Trump I can understand, but Inhofe? That doesn't make any sense to me. If this poll is to be believed, Hern is matching his support from last time. At any rate, this district is Safe R at all levels. OK-05 is the district that needs to be watched.

It seems like Inhofe's approval rating is generally not as good as it used to be (https://tulsaworld.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/poll-trump-inhofe-hold-double-digit-leads-among-likely-oklahoma-voters/article_1eae2498-ff35-11ea-b398-27ec048af543.html).

Bold assumption, perhaps some right-leaning voters view him as too old to serve another term but would still break in his favor when voting?

Possibly. Inhofe did not face any primary opposition this year, once he had announced his decision to run for reelection. Hopefully, he's entering his last term, and will retire in 2026.

Now that the election is over, further reflection is at hand. Inhofe beat Broyles statewide 63-33%, underperforming Trump (who won the state over Biden 65-32%). He underperformed Trump throughout the state, in the rural areas (as expected) but also in Oklahoma and Tulsa Counties. Inhofe won Oklahoma County 48.3-47.4% and Tulsa County 54.6-40.9%, while Trump carried them 49.2-48.1% and 56.5-40.9% respectively. However, most of the difference between Trump and Inhofe can probably be attributed to the third party vote-Libertarian nominee Robert Murphy ran ahead of Jo Jorgensen, while Biden and Broyles did about the same in Tulsa County. Biden, moreover, only slightly ran ahead of Broyles in Oklahoma County. But nevertheless, it seems that this poll was accurate, in terms of capturing the performances of Trump, Inhofe, and Hern in OK-01. Hern received 63% in the district as a whole, and did indeed run ahead of both Trump and Inhofe.