Assuming there's a "hidden" or "shy" Trump vote that polls haven't picked up....

[EJ24]

?

[Pollster]

By “the election turns out like 2016” I assume you mean “the polls were largely accurate but the media failed at reporting on them properly.”

[Senator Incitatus]

By “the election turns out like 2016” I assume you mean “the polls were largely accurate but the media failed at reporting on them properly.”

Polling averages were off significantly (outside MoE) in multiple key states.

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

Oh it's real. It's just a question of percentages. People either won't tell pollsters or lie to them to mess with them. If Trump wins bigly; I except the industry to implode.

[Hammy]

By “the election turns out like 2016” I assume you mean “the polls were largely accurate but the media failed at reporting on them properly.”

Polling averages were off significantly (outside MoE) in multiple key states.

There were significant amounts of undecideds that led to the polling "error" in 2016. Both exceeded their averages, something that you'd expect with >20% undecideds.

A major error this time would require Biden to be dramatically over-polled--something that did not happen with Hillary, nor in 2018.

[BaldEagle1991]

Oh it's real. It's just a question of percentages. People either won't tell pollsters or lie to them to mess with them. If Trump wins bigly; I except the industry to implode.

I have a feeling there will be less polling companies by 2024 if Trump wins by this miracle margin of error.

The only saving grace is that they got the 2018 midterms right.

[Rand]

Oh it's real. It's just a question of percentages. People either won't tell pollsters or lie to them to mess with them. If Trump wins bigly; I except the industry to implode.

Why don’t Trump supporters just man the f**k up and be proud of who they support?

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Bold of you to assume we would have any free and fair elections to poll in the future if Trump somehow wins this year.

[Tekken_Guy]

Oh it's real. It's just a question of percentages. People either won't tell pollsters or lie to them to mess with them. If Trump wins bigly; I except the industry to implode.

Why don’t Trump supporters just man the f**k up and be proud of who they support?

Maybe they're like ninjas, hiding in the shadows. Out in the open, your enemies will be prepared to fight back. Not if you're invisible.

[Indy Texas]

I'm going to start my own polling firm and all we're going to do is count the number of boats in the respective candidates' boat parades.

More boats = leading in the poll

[Alben Barkley]

Oh it's real. It's just a question of percentages. People either won't tell pollsters or lie to them to mess with them. If Trump wins bigly; I except the industry to implode.

Why don’t Trump supporters just man the f**k up and be proud of who they support?

I thought they were? What with the boaters and everything.

Again, I ask: Which is it? Are Trump’s voters the proudest and most enthusiastic in history, maybe ever? Or are they too shy and ashamed to even admit to an anonymous pollster they support him? Hell, to admit it to an internet form?

[Hammy]

Oh it's real. It's just a question of percentages. People either won't tell pollsters or lie to them to mess with them. If Trump wins bigly; I except the industry to implode.

There was a poll awhile ago (from a conservative pro-Trump company) that, while tossed by most people here, indicated roughly 10% of Trump supporters and 5% of Biden supporters aren't open about who they're supporting--which supports the 2:1 breaking of undecideds towards Trump.

But it also shows that any shy vote is likely showing up in the undecideds. Trump's cult is stronger, as are his detractors, and as a result there are less undecideds this go--as there were in 2018. And despite a similar percentage of undecideds breaking for Republicans in 2018 vs 2016, that much smaller total number meant there were no 2016-level errors--and that such errors are unlikely this go as well.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It would be different than 2016 since there are fewer undecides, meaning that if WI was off by 6% again in Trump's favor (margin-wise), something was even more screwed up in the polls, and that there's more going on than a hidden or shy Trump vote. Even then, Biden leads in WI by about 7% on average, so Biden would still win.

[BaldEagle1991]

Oh it's real. It's just a question of percentages. People either won't tell pollsters or lie to them to mess with them. If Trump wins bigly; I except the industry to implode.

Why don’t Trump supporters just man the f**k up and be proud of who they support?

I'd say your typical shy Trump supporter is someone in a deep blue State like California, New York, Massachusetts, and I think there's a high % of them that might be African American, Hispanic (mainly Mexican or Puerto Rican), and Asian.

[Indy Texas]

Oh it's real. It's just a question of percentages. People either won't tell pollsters or lie to them to mess with them. If Trump wins bigly; I except the industry to implode.

Why don’t Trump supporters just man the f**k up and be proud of who they support?

I'd say your typical shy Trump supporter is someone in a deep blue State like California, New York, Massachusetts, and I think there's a high % of them that might be African American, Hispanic (mainly Mexican or Puerto Rican), and Asian.

But they're not telling their neighbor/friend/coworker. They're talking to some anonymous call center worker who doesn't know or GAF about them and vice versa.

[BaldEagle1991]

Oh it's real. It's just a question of percentages. People either won't tell pollsters or lie to them to mess with them. If Trump wins bigly; I except the industry to implode.

Why don’t Trump supporters just man the f**k up and be proud of who they support?

I'd say your typical shy Trump supporter is someone in a deep blue State like California, New York, Massachusetts, and I think there's a high % of them that might be African American, Hispanic (mainly Mexican or Puerto Rican), and Asian.

But they're not telling their neighbor/friend/coworker. They're talking to some anonymous call center worker who doesn't know or GAF about them and vice versa.

That's reasonable.

[DaleCooper]

Given how accurate polls were from 2017-2019 it would seem that it's only a problem for measuring Trump support.

[Senator Incitatus]

Given how accurate polls were from 2017-2019 it would seem that it's only a problem for measuring Trump support.

What? Polls significantly overestimated Democrats in several Senate races in whiter, less-educated states in 2018, even when those polls ostensibly adjusted for education. (They also slightly underestimated Jacky Rosen and Kyrsten Sinema, which is consistent with polling error from 2016.)

[Tekken_Guy]

Oh it's real. It's just a question of percentages. People either won't tell pollsters or lie to them to mess with them. If Trump wins bigly; I except the industry to implode.

Why don’t Trump supporters just man the f**k up and be proud of who they support?

I'd say your typical shy Trump supporter is someone in a deep blue State like California, New York, Massachusetts, and I think there's a high % of them that might be African American, Hispanic (mainly Mexican or Puerto Rican), and Asian.

But they're not telling their neighbor/friend/coworker. They're talking to some anonymous call center worker who doesn't know or GAF about them and vice versa.

There are quite a few issues with this theory:

1. Maybe some voters fear the call center worker will be antagonistic towards them if they support Trump.
2. Perhaps they're trying to dupe the pollsters.

[Pollster]

By “the election turns out like 2016” I assume you mean “the polls were largely accurate but the media failed at reporting on them properly.”

Polling averages were off significantly (outside MoE) in multiple key states.

This is completely incorrect, for reasons already stated in this thread.

[DaleCooper]

Given how accurate polls were from 2017-2019 it would seem that it's only a problem for measuring Trump support.

What? Polls significantly overestimated Democrats in several Senate races in whiter, less-educated states in 2018, even when those polls ostensibly adjusted for education. (They also slightly underestimated Jacky Rosen and Kyrsten Sinema, which is consistent with polling error from 2016.)

You can cherrypick certain instances of individual state polling averages being off within the margin of error, but that doesn't mean that polls weren't by and large quite accurate in the years since 2016.

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

Oh it's real. It's just a question of percentages. People either won't tell pollsters or lie to them to mess with them. If Trump wins bigly; I except the industry to implode.

Why don’t Trump supporters just man the f**k up and be proud of who they support?

Maybe their suburban wife Karen is standing near them and he doesn't want to be in the doghouse? Or they just want to troll the pollsters, like Tekken said.  Plenty of reasons.

[Person Man]

Oh it's real. It's just a question of percentages. People either won't tell pollsters or lie to them to mess with them. If Trump wins bigly; I except the industry to implode.

Why don’t Trump supporters just man the f**k up and be proud of who they support?

Maybe their suburban wife Karen is standing near them and he doesn't want to be in the doghouse? Or they just want to troll the pollsters, like Tekken said.  Plenty of reasons.

I’d buy that they are trolling the pollsters but why don’t Biden voters too? Is moral turpitude a Trump thing?

[Citizen 603]

There are Trump supporters who won't talk to pollsters, or who will lie to pollsters.  It's real.

I think the results on Nov. 3rd will show that the polls were wrong, similar to 2016.

But I don't think it will have any effect on the polling industry.  They will continue to do what they have been doing.

[Tekken_Guy]

Oh it's real. It's just a question of percentages. People either won't tell pollsters or lie to them to mess with them. If Trump wins bigly; I except the industry to implode.

Why don’t Trump supporters just man the f**k up and be proud of who they support?

Maybe their suburban wife Karen is standing near them and he doesn't want to be in the doghouse? Or they just want to troll the pollsters, like Tekken said.  Plenty of reasons.

I’d buy that they are trolling the pollsters but why don’t Biden voters too? Is moral turpitude a Trump thing?

Team (non-Atlas) Blue tends to play fairly. Team Red does not.