Suburban gains: Demographic Change or Newly Liberal Whites

[forsythvoter]

Great analysis - love that it's data driven. This is consistent with the trends I've been observing in metro ATL precincts in the GA-400 corridor. There are an astonishing number of precincts in East Cobb, North Fulton, South Forsyth that gave Romney 75%+ where Kemp didn't even break 60%. While pop growth and demographic growth explain some of it, the majority of the shift mathematically has to be from white voters shifting D.

Del Taichi recently made the point that:

Biden will not approach anywhere near 60% in Cobb or North Fulton, even though these counties are both becoming increasingly diverse (South Cobb is essentially an extension of West Atlanta/Douglas, it's over 60% Black.)  He may break 60% in Gwinnett only because it's the poorest, most downscale of Atlanta's northern suburban counties.  There really aren't these Romney-Clinton voters you obsess over as much as there are Romney-Clinton places. 

Also:  how come when talking about Georgia's suburban Romney-Clinton counties no one seems to give any love to South Atlanta's Henry County (even though it's the most Democratic of any of them)?  Might it have something to do with it only being 55% White and 36% college-educated?  Doesn't quite fit your narrative I guess, hmm?

Naturally, minority voters are the base of the Democratic party, particularly in southern metros like Atlanta. However, it is interesting to consider whether the county map of these big metro areas is shifting because of the white vote or the suburbanization of minorities. It's also interesting to address whether or not we should talk about shifts in the political landscape of North Fulton and Cobb in the same way we talk about shifts in Douglass and Henry.

This raises three questions:

1. How much of the 2008-2016 swing in big metro areas comes from increased minority populations and how much comes from whites flipping parties?

2. If whites are flipping parties in big metro areas, is this swing concentrated in favored quarters (like the North Atlanta suburbs) or can you see it in more downscale parts of the metro as well?

3. Regardless of swings between elections, do white voters in favored quarters consistently vote left of white voters in other parts of metro areas?

To answer these, I decided to dig into DRA data for four major metro areas with well-defined favored quarters: Dallas-Fort Worth (North Dallas/Collin/Southeast Denton), Houston (West Houston/Energy Corridor/North Fort Bend), Atlanta (North Fulton/North DeKalb/East Cobb/Forsyth), and Chicago (Streeterville to the North Shore). If I wanted to add more data, I would also take a look at Philadelphia, Seattle, and Washington. In each of these four metro areas, I determined the white vote in the 2008 election and the 2016 election in both the favored quarter and the rest of the metro area. This is what I got:

Dallas-Fort Worth
White vote, 2008, favored quarter: R+58
White vote, 2008, rest of metro: R+66
White vote, 2016, favored quarter: R+30
White vote, 2016, rest of metro: R+52

Houston
White vote, 2008, favored quarter: R+66
White vote, 2008, rest of metro: R+80
White vote, 2016, favored quarter: R+34
White vote, 2016, rest of metro: R+80

Atlanta
White vote, 2008, favored quarter: R+34
White vote, 2008, rest of metro: R+36
White vote, 2016, favored quarter: R+8
White vote, 2016, rest of metro: R+30

Chicago
White vote, 2008, favored quarter: D+48
White vote, 2008, rest of metro: D+22
White vote, 2016, favored quarter: D+60
White vote, 2016, rest of metro: D+14

After you get past the topline numbers (North Atlanta whites are probably going to vote for Biden even though sunbelt whites are absurdly conservative--~80% of Houston whites voting for McCain--wtf!), you notice a very consistent pattern: favored quarter whites ALWAYS vote left of the rest of the metro, metropolitan whites really did swing towards Hillary Clinton, and these swings have mostly happened in favored quarters. In 2008, the average favored quarter white voter was 13 points left of the rest of the metro, while in 2016, the average favored quarter white voter was 34 points left of the rest of the metro.

Metro-by-metro, white swings (2008-2016) were:

Dallas-Fort Worth
Favored quarter whites: D+28
Rest of metro whites: D+14
Relative swing of favored quarter: D+14

Houston
Favored quarter whites: D+32
Rest of metro whites: D+0 (!)
Relative swing of favored quarter: D+32

Atlanta
Favored quarter whites: D+25
Rest of metro whites: D+7
Relative swing of favored quarter: D+18

Chicago
Favored quarter whites: D+12
Rest of metro whites: R+8
Relative swing of favored quarter: D+20

What's the big takeaway?

First, there's massive internal variation in the white vote across big metro areas. Second, less upscale Romney-Clinton areas (like Henry County, GA) are moving left overwhelmingly because of the suburbanization of minorities. However, upscale wedges of metros (like the GA-400 corridor) are mostly moving left because of shifts in the white vote (some combination of the mythical Romney-Clinton voters, generational turnover, and coastal transplants). If these trends continue into the 2020s, we should be unsurprised by favored quarter counties like Collin, TX or San Bernardino, CA voting to the left of non-favored quarter counties like Tarrant, TX or Orange, CA.

So to address the original Del Taichi quote that prompted all this, North Atlanta is a Romney-Clinton place driven by Romney-Clinton voters while Henry, GA is a Romney-Clinton place driven by demographic change.

Hopefully you all find this interesting. I hope to update this after the 2020 election.

[forsythvoter]

I suspect the favored quarter voting trends are also highly correlated with the share of college-educated whites. In metro ATL, these areas (East Cobb, North Fulton, South Forsyth) are also widely considered to have the top public schools in the state, and so they get a disproportionate share of out-of-state transplants / metro relocators who place high priority on the quality of the schools - a group within which college-educated whites are overrepresented.

This is anecdotal, so take it with a grain of salt, but at least in my experience I've seen a massive swing in these affluent white Romney voting types. Back in the day, being a Democrat was sort of viewed as quaint or maybe even admirably idealistic, but it was generally accepted that voting for Republicans was the "responsible" thing to do. Now, though, saying that you're a Trump supporter will make those people think you're an idiot, and even saying that you're a Republican will raise some eyebrows, so a lot of people are a lot less vocal about their beliefs outside their immediate family. Buckhead-type whites really have never wanted to be lumped in with rural Georgian whites, who they often perceive as unintelligent and backwards, and for better or worse Trump has tied himself to that group of people.

Also, their children are in general pretty liberal, especially the women.